financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2020-25-5-79-91finance-1323Research ArticleПРОЕКТНОЕ ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЕPROJECT FINANCEАнализ финансовой эффективности энергетических проектов и производства возобновляемой энергии в РоссииAnalysis of Energy Projects Financial Efficiency and Renewable Energy Generation in Russiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5410-7506АнДж.AnJ.

Джаехунг Ан — кандидат экономических наук

Сеул

Jaehyung An — Cand. Sci. (Econ.)

Seoul

jaehyung.an@yahoo.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2478-0307МихайловА. Ю.MikhaylovA. Yu.

Алексей Юрьевич Михайлов — кандидат экономических наук, заместитель директора Научно-исследовательского центра денежно-кредитных отношений

Москва

Alexey Yu. Mikhaylov — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy Director Research Center of Monetary Relations

Moscow

AYUMihajlov@fa.ruКолледж бизнеса, Университет иностранных языков ХанкукЮжная КореяCollege of Business, Hankuk University of Foreign StudiesKorea, Republic ofФинансовый университетРоссияFinancial UniversityRussian Federation2021281020212557991Copyright © Ан Д., Михайлов А.Ю., 20212021Ан Д., Михайлов А.Ю.An J., Mikhaylov A.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1323

Авторы изучают развитие нефтегазовой отрасли и оценивают финансовую эффективность использования возобновляемых источников энергии, что определяет актуальность темы исследования. Целью данной работы является изучение эффективности развития российского энергетического сектора и его вклада в мировую экономику. Главный вопрос, на который должна дать ответ эта статья, заключается в том, как будет развиваться российская энергетика в соответствии с мировыми тенденциями потребления энергии. Авторы применяют метод параметров эффективности возобновляемых источников энергии с использованием экспоненциального сглаживания. Исследование основано на данных аналитического отчета British Petroleum и системы Bloomberg за период с января 2012 по декабрь 2019 г. В результате показано улучшение точности прогнозируемых значений, в то время как предыдущие модели имели более высокие оценки стандартной ошибки. Новизна исследования заключается в достижении точных результатов прогноза потребления ископаемого топлива на 3 года вперед (точность прогноза составляет 80,5). Сделан вывод о том, что, хотя российские нефтегазовые проекты до сих пор очень важны для российской экономики, проекты в области возобновляемых источников энергии более выгодны. Кроме того, Россия, похоже, не поддерживает глобальную тенденцию к возобновляемой и устойчивой экономике. Хотя цены на нефть и газ остаются приемлемыми, непредвиденные изменения в поведении реальных покупателей могут помешать развитию российской экономики и привести к нарушению экономического роста России, если она не будет ориентироваться на возобновляемые источники энергии. Рост российской электроэнергетики соответствует мировым тенденциям (в то время как цены на ископаемые ресурсы, следовательно, и доходы продолжают падать), и поэтому необходимо принять инновационные решения по расширению использования возобновляемых источников энергии. В статье доказано, что многие проекты («Южный поток», «Турецкий поток», «Северный поток-2») направляют российский энергетический сектор в прошлое, противореча мировым тенденциям в энергетике.

The authors study the development of the oil and gas industry and assess the financial efficiency of the use of renewable energy sources, which determine the relevance of the research topic. The purpose of this work is to study the effectiveness of the development of the Russian energy sector and its contribution to the world economy. The main question to which this article should give an answer is that how the Russian power industry will develop in corresponding to the global trends in energy consumption. This paper uses a method for finding the parameters of the efficiency of renewable energy sources using exponential smoothing. The paper uses data from the analytical report of British Petroleum and the Bloomberg system for the period from January 2012 to December 2019. The result of the study shows an improvement in the accuracy of the predicted values, while previous models had higher standard error estimates. The novelty of the study is to achieve accurate results of the forecast of fossil-fuel consumption for 3 years ahead (the forecast accuracy is 80.5). The article concludes that while Russian oil and gas projects are very important for the Russian economy until now, renewable energy projects are more beneficial. In addition, Russia does not seem to support the global trend towards a renewable and sustainable economy. Although oil and gas prices remain acceptable, unforeseen changes in the behavior of real buyers can hinder the efficiency of the Russian economy and lead to a disruption of Russia’s economic growth if Russia does not decisively steer towards renewable energy from now on. The growth of the Russian power industry corresponds to the global trends in fossil energy consumption (while fossil prices, thus incomes keep worsening), and thus innovative solutions for enhancing renewable energies must be adopted. The article proves that many pipeline projects (South Stream, Turkish Stream, Nord Stream 2) move the Russian energy sector back to the past because they just contradict existing trends.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.