financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2021-25-6-6-15finance-1376Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY & CREDIT POLICYВалютный курс рубля: моделирование сравнительной среднесрочной и долгосрочной динамикиRussian ruble exchange rate: Modeling of comparative medium-term and long-term dynamicshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7053-6615КузьминА. Ю.KuzminA. Yu.

Антон Юрьевич Кузьмин — доктор экономических наук, профессор Департамента математики

Москва

Anton Yu. Kuzmin — Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., Department of Mathematics

Moscow

a_kuzmin@rambler.ruФинансовый университетРоссияFinancial UniversityRussian Federation202122122021256615Copyright © Кузьмин А.Ю., 20212021Кузьмин А.Ю.Kuzmin A.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1376

Предметом исследования выступает динамический механизм формирования валютного курса российского рубля в многоуровневой системе экономических фундаментальных детерминант-агрегатов в условиях режима независимого плавания национальной валюты. Целью исследования является развитие авторского теоретико-методологического концептуального подхода к моделированию динамики равновесного валютного курса на основе международных потоков (international flows equilibrium exchange rate — IFEER) и разработка на его основе новой модели динамики валютного курса российского рубля. Методологическая база исследования включает системный анализ, фундаментальные методы экономической теории, классические методы математического анализа и экономико-статистического анализа, положения национального счетоводства. В работе представлены данные по верификации результатов моделирования среднесрочной равновесной динамики. При этом значительное внимание уделено математическому моделированию долгосрочной динамики валютного курса рубля сравнительно со среднесрочной равновесной динамикой и математическому анализу внутренних функциональных связей в современных условиях, что определяет научную новизну и актуальность исследования. На основании проведенного математического моделирования сделан вывод о тенденциях укрепления валютного курса рубля в долгосрочном плане в условиях сохранения действующих долгосрочных тенденций.

The subject of the study is the dynamic mechanism of the formation of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in a multilevel system of economic fundamental determinants-aggregates in the context of the independent floating rate of the national currency. The aim of the study is to develop the author’s theoretical and methodological conceptual approach to modeling the dynamics of the equilibrium exchange rate based on international flows (IFEER) and to develop a new model of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics on its basis. The methodological base of the research includes system analysis, fundamental methods of economic theory, classical methods of mathematical analysis, and economic and statistical analysis, and the provisions of national accounting. The paper presents data on the verifcation of the results of modeling mediumterm equilibrium dynamics. At the same time, the author pays considerable attention to the mathematical modeling of the long-term dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in comparison with the medium-term equilibrium dynamics and the mathematical analysis of internal functional relationships in modern conditions, which determines the scientifc novelty and relevance of the study. Based on the conducted mathematical modeling, the author concludes about the trends of a stronger ruble exchange rate in the long run, while maintaining the current long-term trends.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.