financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2022-26-1-55-65finance-1500Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ФИНАНСЫINTERNATIONAL FINANCEКривая Арми: эмпирический анализ отдельных Балканских стран и России за период 2006–2019 годовThe Armey curve: an empirical analysis of selected Balkan countries and Russia for the period 2006–2019https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2920-4061НиколоваВ. Н.NikolovaV. N.

Величка Н. Николова — кандидат экономических наук, преподаватель кафедры экономики, факультет общей экономики

София

Velichka N. Nikolova — PhD in Economics, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of General Economics

Sofia

vnikolova@unwe.bghttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8578-3934АнгеловА. Г.AngelovA. G.

Ангел Г. Ангелов — кандидат экономических наук, преподаватель кафедры финансов, факультет финансов и бухгалтерского учета

София

Angel G. Angelov — PhD in Economics, Lecturer, Department of Finance, Finance and Accountancy Faculty

Sofia

angelov@unwe.bgУниверситет национального и мирового хозяйства (УНМХ)БолгарияUniversity of National and World Economy (UNWE)Bulgaria2022260220222615565Copyright © Николова В.Н., Ангелов А.Г., 20222022Николова В.Н., Ангелов А.Г.Nikolova V.N., Angelov A.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1500

Предметом анализа является обоснованность часто используемой в научной литературе кривой Арми и оптимальный уровень государственного сектора. Цель исследования — анализ влияния государственного сектора через государственные расходы на возможность достижения экономического роста. Оценка основана на годовых данных за период 2006–2019 гг. по отдельным Балканским странам и России. Авторы применяют метод обыкновенных наименьших квадратов (OLS) для нелинейной регрессионной модели. Вывод заключается в том, что кривая Арми действительна для некоторых стран, участвующих в исследовании, среди которых Сербия, Северная Македония и Россия. Пороговое значение отношения государственных расходов к валовому внутреннему продукту, которое максимизирует экономический рост, колеблется от 32,94 до 42,37%. Средняя доля государственных расходов в анализируемых странах примерно равна полученным пороговым значениям, что свидетельствует о достижении в определенной степени желаемых экономических показателей. Однако результаты исследования показывают, что рост государственного сектора и его влияние на экономическое развитие не стоит недооценивать.

The subject of the analysis is to check the validity of the Armey curve which is frequently used in the scientific literature and to establish the optimal level of the public sector. The aim of the present study is to analyze the impact of the public sector through public expenditure on the possibility of achieving economic growth. The estimation is based on annual data for the period 2006–2019 of selected Balkan countries and Russia. The authors apply the ordinary least squares (OLS) method for a nonlinear regression model. The conclusion is that the Armey curve is valid for some of the countries involved in the research among which Serbia, North Macedonia and Russia. The public expenditure to Gross Domestic Product ratio’s threshold value, which maximizes economic growth, ranges from 32.94 to 42.37%. The average share of public expenditure in the analyzed countries is approximately equal to the threshold values that are obtained which is indicative of achievement to some extent the desired economic performance. However, the results of the study show that the growth of the public sector and its impact on economic development should not be underestimated.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.