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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">finance</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Finance: Theory and Practice</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-5671</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2587-7089</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26794/2587-5671-2022-26-2-74-87</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">finance-1577</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>INVESTMENT POlICY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Модель финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности в промышленных отраслях: разработка и прогнозирование эффективности</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Model of Financial Incentives for Innovation Activity in Industrial Sector: Development and Forecasting of Efficiency</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2782-3122</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Маншилин</surname><given-names>С. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Manshilin</surname><given-names>S. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сергей Андреевич Маншилин — эксперт департамента финансового планирования и анализа.</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sergei A. Manshilin — Expert of the Department of Financial Planning and Analysis.</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">manshilin2011@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9281-7266</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лещинская</surname><given-names>А. Ф.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Leshchinskaya</surname><given-names>A. F.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Александра Федоровна Лещинская — доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры финансового менеджмента.</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Aleksandra F. Leshchinskaya — Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., Department of Financial Management.</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">alixfl@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Альфа-банк, АО</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Alfa-bank, JSC</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российский экономический университет им. Г.В. Плеханова</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Plekhanov Russian University of Economics</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>04</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>26</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>74</fpage><lpage>87</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Маншилин С.А., Лещинская А.Ф., 2022</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Маншилин С.А., Лещинская А.Ф.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Manshilin S.A., Leshchinskaya A.F.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1577">https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1577</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье приведены ключевые положения разработанной модели финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности для компаний, функционирующих в промышленных отраслях. Предмет исследования — экономические отношения, формирующиеся в процессе финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности промышленных компаний. Цель исследования — представление авторской модели финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности в промышленных отраслях, а также оценка ее эффективности при помощи методов прогнозирования. Актуальность исследования обусловлена существованием в современных условиях значимых препятствий финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности в промышленных отраслях: недостатком собственного капитала у компаний, достаточно высокими издержками на осуществление инновационных проектов, существованием финансового риска потери компанией платежеспособности, а также нехваткой бюджетного финансирования инноваций и государственной материальной поддержки. Новизна исследования состоит в разработке модели финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности, которую могли бы использовать на практике компании, функционирующие в промышленных отраслях, с целью повышения производственного потенциала за счет реализации проектов инноваций и НИОКР. Использованы методы: статистического анализа, корреляционно-регрессионного анализа, прогнозирования, сценарного анализа и построения тренда ВВП РФ. Результаты: автором определена структура современной модели финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности для промышленных компаний, оценена ее эффективность с использованием взаимозависимостей между ВВП РФ и ключевыми параметрами, отражающими увеличение инновационной активности российского предпринимательства. Статистические данные для прогнозирования ВВП РФ были собраны за период 2010–2021 гг. Сделан вывод о том, что наиболее эффективным сценарием для российской инновационной экономики выступает практическое использование разработанной модели финансового стимулирования инновационной деятельности в высокоактивных и среднеактивных компаниях.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article presents the key provisions of the developed model of financial incentives for innovation activity for companies in the industrial sector. The subject of the study is economic relations formed in the process of financial incentives for innovation activity of industrial companies. The aim of the study is to present the authors’ model of financial incentives for innovation activity in the industrial sector, as well as to evaluate its effectiveness using forecasting methods. The relevance of the study is due to the existence in modern conditions of significant obstacles to financial incentives for innovation in the industrial sector: the lack of equity capital of companies, sufficiently high costs for the implementation of innovation projects, the existence of financial risk of loss of solvency by the company, as well as a lack of budget financing of innovation and state material support. The novelty of the research consists in the development of a model of financial incentives for innovation, which could be used in practice by companies operating in the industrial sector in order to increase production potential through the implementation of innovation and R&amp;D projects. The authors apply the following methods: statistical analysis, correlation and regression analysis, forecasting, scenario analysis and construction of the trend of the GDP of the Russian Federation. Results: the authors define the structure of the modern model of financial incentives for innovation activity for industrial companies, evaluate its effectiveness using the interdependencies between the GDP of the Russian Federation and key parameters reflecting the increase in innovation activities of Russian entrepreneurship. Statistical data for forecasting the GDP of the Russian Federation were collected for the period 2010–2021. The authors conclude that the most effective scenario for the Russian innovation economy is the practical use of the developed model of financial incentives for innovation activity in highly active and mediumactive companies.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>модель финансового стимулирования</kwd><kwd>инновационная деятельность</kwd><kwd>инновационная активность</kwd><kwd>промышленные отрасли</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование изменения ВВП РФ</kwd><kwd>цифровизация предпринимательской среды</kwd><kwd>формы финансирования</kwd><kwd>НИОКР</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>financial incentive model</kwd><kwd>innovations</kwd><kwd>innovation activity</kwd><kwd>industrial sector</kwd><kwd>forecasting changes in the GDP of the Russian Federation</kwd><kwd>digitalization of the business environment</kwd><kwd>forms of financing</kwd><kwd>R&amp;D</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Маншилин С.А. 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