financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2022-26-4-44-59finance-1726Research ArticleДРАЙВЕРЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТАDRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTHОсновные движущие силы экономического роста в Армении: анализ и оценкаMain Drivers of Economic Growth in Armenia: Analysis and Evaluationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2848-4946СандоянЭ. М.SandoyanaE. M.

Эдвард Мартинович Сандоян - доктор экономических наук, профессор, директор

Ереван

Edward M. Sandoyan - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Director, Institute of Economics and Business

Yerevan

edwardsandoyan@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3920-453XЕгиазарянА. Б.GhiazaryanA. A.

Армен Бениаминович Егиазарян - кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры экономической теории и проблем экономики переходного периода

Ереван

Armen B. Eghiazaryan - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Department of Economic Theory and the Issues of Transition Period Economies

Yerevan

armenyeghiazaryan2@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5417-6648ВосканянМ. А.VoskanyanM. A.

Мариам Амбарцумовна Восканян - доктор экономических наук, доцент, заведующая кафедрой экономики и финансов

Ереван

Mariam A. Voskanyan - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Head of Department of Economicsand Finance

Yerevan

voskanyanm@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7800-7232ГалстянА. Г.GalstyanA. G.

Ани Гамлетовна Галстян - кандидат экономических наук, старший преподаватель кафедры экономики и финансов

Ереван

Ani G. Galstyan - Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics andFinance

Yerevan

anigalstyan1@gmail.comРоссийско-Армянский университетАрменияRussian-Armenian UniversityArmenia2022110920222644459Copyright © Сандоян Э.М., Егиазарян А.Б., Восканян М.А., Галстян А.Г., 20222022Сандоян Э.М., Егиазарян А.Б., Восканян М.А., Галстян А.Г.Sandoyana E.M., ghiazaryan A.A., Voskanyan M.A., Galstyan A.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/1726

Макроэкономическая политика в Армении за последние 30 лет привела к замедлению экономического роста. Это, в свою очередь, влечет за собой необходимость пересмотра подходов к макроэкономическому регулированию, а также поиска ключевых драйверов экономического роста, на которые государство должно делать акцент в будущей макроэкономической политике. Целью данного исследования является анализ и оценка основных драйверов экономического роста в Армении. В работе использованы методы статистического и сравнительного анализа, дедуктивного анализа, а также анализа исторических данных и текущего состояния проблемы. Авторы рассматривают основные факторы экономического роста в Армении, а также периоды как стабильной макроэкономической среды, так и экономических кризисов с точки зрения эффективности и оптимальности макроэкономического регулирования. Определены наиболее важные сектора экономики, проведен анализ регулирования макроэкономической политики в Армении, оценено влияние такой политики на экономический рост в стране. Результаты показывают, что на сегодняшний день макроэкономическое регулирование можно считать неэффективным, что, безусловно, оказывает негативное влияние на темпы экономического роста. Основным выводом исследования является тезис о необходимости разработки новых подходов социально-экономической политики для обеспечения устойчивого экономического роста в будущем и быстрого выхода из будущих кризисов экономического роста без ограничения или остановки экономической активности.

Macroeconomic policy in Armenia over the past 30 years has led to a slowdown in economic growth. This, in turn, entails the need to revise approaches to macroeconomic regulation, as well as to search for key drivers of economic growth, which the state should emphasize in the future macroeconomic policy. The aim of this research is to analyze and assess the main drivers of economic growth in Armenia. We have employed the methods of statistical and comparative analysis, deductive analysis, as well as the analysis of historical data and the current state of the problem. The paper examines the key drivers of economic growth in Armenia, as well as periods of both a stable macroeconomic environment and economic crises, from the point of view of the efficiency and optimality of macroeconomic regulation. The current study identifies the most important sectors of the economy, analyses macroeconomic policy regulation in Armenia, and assesses the impact of such policies on economic growth in the country. The results show that today’s macroeconomic regulation can be considered ineffective, which certainly has a negative effect on the rate of economic growth. The key conclusion of the research is the thesis that it is urgent to develop new socio-economic policy approaches to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future and to emerge quickly from future economic growth crises without restricting or halting economic activity.

экономический ростфакторы экономического ростаразвивающаяся экономикаэкономические кризисыeconomic growthdrivers of economic growthdeveloping economyeconomic crisesИсследование выполнено в рамках исследовательского проекта по институциональному гранту фонда «Центр содействия экономическому образованию и исследованиям». Российско-Армянский Университет, Ереван, Армения.The research was carried out at the Russian-Armenian University in the framework of the research project within institutional grant from the foundation “Center for the Promotion of Economic Education and Research”. Russian-Armenian University, Yerevan, Armenia.ReferencesSchumpeter J. A. Business cycles. A theoretical, historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process (in 2 vols.). Vol. 1. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company; 1939. 448 p.Schumpeter J. A. Business cycles. A theoretical, historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process (in 2 vols.). Vol. 1. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company; 1939. 448 p.Greenspan A., Wooldridge A. Capitalism in America: An economic history of the United States. New York: Penguin Books; 2018.; 496 p.Greenspan A., Wooldridge A. Capitalism in America: An economic history of the United States. New York: Penguin Books; 2018.; 496 p.Borio C., Restoy F. Reflections on regulatory responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. FSI Briefs. 2020;(1). URL: https://www.bis.org/fsi/fsibriefs1.pdfBorio C., Restoy F. Reflections on regulatory responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. FSI Briefs. 2020;(1). URL: https://www.bis.org/fsi/fsibriefs1.pdfKissler S. M., Tedijanto C., Goldstein E., Grad Y. H., Lipsitch M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science. 2020;368(6493):860–868. DOI: 10.1126/science. abb5793Kissler S. M., Tedijanto C., Goldstein E., Grad Y. H., Lipsitch M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science. 2020;368(6493):860–868. DOI: 10.1126/science. abb5793Byrne D. M., Fernald J. G., Reinsdorf M. B. Does the United States have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016;(Spring):109–157. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ByrneEtAl_ProductivityMeasurement_ConferenceDraft.pdfByrne D. M., Fernald J. G., Reinsdorf M. B. Does the United States have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016;(Spring):109–157. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ByrneEtAl_ProductivityMeasurement_ConferenceDraft.pdfFernald J. G., Jones C. I. The future of US economic growth. American Economic Review. 2014;104(5):44–49. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.44Fernald J. G., Jones C. I. The future of US economic growth. American Economic Review. 2014;104(5):44–49. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.44Podkaminer L. The euro area’s secular stagnation and what can be done about it: A post-Keynesian perspective. Real World Economics Review. 2015;(70):1–16. URL: http://www2.euromemorandum.eu/uploads/podkaminer_the_euro_area_s_secular_stagnation.pdfPodkaminer L. The euro area’s secular stagnation and what can be done about it: A post-Keynesian perspective. Real World Economics Review. 2015;(70):1–16. URL: http://www2.euromemorandum.eu/uploads/podkaminer_the_euro_area_s_secular_stagnation.pdfPietrzak M. B., Balcerzak, A. P. Quality of human capital and total factor productivity in new EU member states. Institute of Economic Research Working Papers. 2016;(23). URL: http://www.badania-gospodarcze.pl/images/Working_Papers/2016_No_23.pdfPietrzak M. B., Balcerzak, A. P. Quality of human capital and total factor productivity in new EU member states. Institute of Economic Research Working Papers. 2016;(23). URL: http://www.badania-gospodarcze.pl/images/Working_Papers/2016_No_23.pdfKasperowicz R., Štreimikienė, D. Economic growth and energy consumption: comparative analysis of V4 and the “old” EU countries. Journal of International Studies. 2016;9(2):181–194. URL: https://www.jois.eu/files/JIS_Vol9_No2_Kasperowicz_Streimikien%C4%97.pdfKasperowicz R., Štreimikienė, D. Economic growth and energy consumption: comparative analysis of V4 and the “old” EU countries. Journal of International Studies. 2016;9(2):181–194. URL: https://www.jois.eu/files/JIS_Vol9_No2_Kasperowicz_Streimikien%C4%97.pdfCapello R., Perucca G. Openness to globalization and regional growth patterns in CEE countries: From the EU accession to the economic crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies. 2015;53(2):218–236. DOI: 10.1111/jcms.12157Capello R., Perucca G. Openness to globalization and regional growth patterns in CEE countries: From the EU accession to the economic crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies. 2015;53(2):218–236. DOI: 10.1111/jcms.12157Cvetanović S., Mitrović U., Jurakić M. Institutions as the driver of economic growth in classic, neoclasic and endogenous theory. Economic Themes. 2019;57(1):111–125. DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2019–0007Cvetanović S., Mitrović U., Jurakić M. Institutions as the driver of economic growth in classic, neoclasic and endogenous theory. Economic Themes. 2019;57(1):111–125. DOI: 10.2478/ethemes-2019–0007Sandoyan E. M., Voskanyan M. A., Galstyan A. H. Impact channels of currency regulation on economic growth: The case of Armenia. Journal Global Policy and Governance. 2018;7(2):3–12. DOI: 10.14666/2194–7759–7–2–001Sandoyan E. M., Voskanyan M. A., Galstyan A. H. Impact channels of currency regulation on economic growth: The case of Armenia. Journal Global Policy and Governance. 2018;7(2):3–12. DOI: 10.14666/2194–7759–7–2–001Voskanyan M. Economic impact of COVID 19 pandemic for Armenia. R-Economy. 2020;6(3):183–195. DOI: 10.15826/recon.2020.6.3.016Voskanyan M. Economic impact of COVID 19 pandemic for Armenia. R-Economy. 2020;6(3):183–195. DOI: 10.15826/recon.2020.6.3.016Sandoyan E. M., Galstyan A. G. The impact of currency regulation policy on the country’s export potential: The case of Armenia. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2020;24(2):92–103. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2020–24–2–92–103Sandoyan E. M., Galstyan A. G. The impact of currency regulation policy on the country’s export potential: The case of Armenia. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2020;24(2):92–103. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2020–24–2–92–103Stoian A., Brașoveanu L. O., Brașoveanu I. V., Dumitrescu B. A framework to assess fiscal vulnerability: Empirical evidence for European Union countries. Sustainability. 2018;10(7):2482. DOI: 10.3390/su10072482Stoian A., Brașoveanu L. O., Brașoveanu I. V., Dumitrescu B. A framework to assess fiscal vulnerability: Empirical evidence for European Union countries. Sustainability. 2018;10(7):2482. DOI: 10.3390/su10072482Blanchard O. J., Summers L. H. Rethinking stabilization policy: Evolution or revolution? NBER Working Paper. 2017;(24179). DOI: 10.3386/w24179Blanchard O. J., Summers L. H. Rethinking stabilization policy: Evolution or revolution? NBER Working Paper. 2017;(24179). DOI: 10.3386/w24179Voskanyan M., Paronyan L. Coordination of fiscal and monetary regulation in Armenia. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2020;24(1):105–118. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2020–24–1–105–118Voskanyan M., Paronyan L. Coordination of fiscal and monetary regulation in Armenia. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2020;24(1):105–118. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2020–24–1–105–118Voskanyan M., Paronyan L. Solving fiscal problems through monetary policy mechanisms: Case of Armenia. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2020;24(6):61–81. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2020–24–6–61–81Voskanyan M., Paronyan L. Solving fiscal problems through monetary policy mechanisms: Case of Armenia. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2020;24(6):61–81. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2020–24–6–61–81Greenspan A. The map and the territory 2.0: Risk, human nature, and the future of forecasting. New York: Penguin books; 2014. 432 p.Greenspan A. The map and the territory 2.0: Risk, human nature, and the future of forecasting. New York: Penguin books; 2014. 432 p.Dalio R. Principles for navigating big debt crises. Westport, CT: Bridgewater; 2018. 456 p.Dalio R. Principles for navigating big debt crises. Westport, CT: Bridgewater; 2018. 456 p.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.