financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-2-192-202finance-2091Research ArticleФИНАНСОВЫЙ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТFINANCIAL MANAGEMENTИспользование модели Альтмана Z” при прогнозировании финансового положения компаний, зарегистрированных на турецкой фондовой биржеApplication of the Altman Z’’ Score Model in Forecasting the Financial Position of BIST Companieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2881-1684ГёктюркИ. Е.Göktürkİ. E.

Ибрагим Эмре Гёктюрк - старший преподаватель, факультет здравоохранения, кафедра социального обслуживания

Конья

İbrahim Emre Göktürk - Assist. Prof., Faculty of Health Science, Department of Social Service

Konya

iegokturk@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5064-5144ЯлчинкайяХ. С.YalçinkayaH. S.

Хюсейн Сердар Ялчынкая - старший преподаватель, факультет бухгалтерского учета и налогообложения, профессиональная школа Эрегли

Конья

Hüseyin Serdar Yalçınkaya - Assist. Prof., Department of Accounting and Tax, Eregli Vocational School

Konya

Университет Некметтина ЭрбаканаТурцияNecmettin Erbakan UniversityTurkey202301052023272192202Copyright © Гёктюрк И.Е., Ялчинкайя Х.С., 20232023Гёктюрк И.Е., Ялчинкайя Х.С.Göktürk İ.E., Yalçinkaya H.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2091

Для измерения финансовых показателей компаний и выявления их финансового кризиса в научной литературе существует множество моделей. Среди них модель Z” Score является одной из наиболее используемых, поскольку она основана на бухгалтерском учете и проста в применении. Цель данного исследования — выяснить, применима ли модель Z” Score, усовершенствованная Альтманом, для оценки стоимости фирмы в долгосрочной перспективе. Проведен панельный анализ коинтеграции между переменными, где в качестве независимой переменной выступала стоимость компании, акции которой котируются на турецкой фондовой бирже BIST (istanbul stock exchange), а в качестве зависимой переменной — Z” Score. Несмотря на то, что исследование проводилось конкретно в Турции, его результаты считаются применимыми во всем мире, так как Альтман утверждает, что модель Z” Score может также использоваться компаниями из развивающихся стран. Доказано, что модель Altman Z” Score, примененная в отношении публичной компании, имеет высокую способность прогнозировать финансовый успех фирм. Согласно результатам анализа увеличение на 1 единицу значения Z” баллов компаний приводит к увеличению на 0,353 единицы логарифмического дохода, рассчитанного по стоимости фирмы. Модель Z Score может быть полезна для руководителей компаний, бухгалтерских и финансовых менеджеров, аудиторов, кредиторов, инвесторов при принятии верных решений, связанных с предварительной оценкой финансовых показателей компаний.

For measuring financial performances of companies and identifying financial failure, there are a lot of models in the literature. Among these models, Z Score model is of the most used in terms of its being an accounting-based model and simple applicability. The purpose of this paper is found out whether the Z” Score model, which was revised by Altman, could be useful in making financial decisions about long-term firm value. For this purpose, panel cointegration analyzes were carried out among the variables, with the firm values of the publicly traded companies listed on the Turkish BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange) as the independent variable and the Z” Score values as the dependent variable. Although the research is specific to Turkey, the results of the research are considered to be applicable globally, as Altman states that the Z” Score model can also be used by developing country companies. It has been proven that Altman Z” Score Model, applied in public company, has a high prediction power directed to financial success of the firms. According to the results of the analysis, 1 unit increase in the Z” Score values of the companies cause an increase of 0.353 units in the logarithmic return calculated over the firm value. Z” Score Model can be a precious indicator for heads of companies, accounting and financial managers, auditors, creditors, investors to make accurate decisions directed to assessing financial structures of companies in advance.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.