financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-3-43-55finance-2188Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКАFINANCIAL POLICYОбеспеченность денежной массы золотовалютными резервами как опережающий индикатор курса рубляSecurity of the money supply with gold and foreign exchange reserves as a leading indicator of the ruble exchange ratehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2144-3543ЕреминВ. В.EreminV. V.

Владимир Владимирович Еремин — кандидат экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник центра мониторинга и оценки экономической безопасности института экономической политики и проблем экономической безопасности, департамент экономической безопасности и управления рисками, факультет экономики и бизнеса

Москва

Vladimir V. Eremin — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Leading Research Associate, Center for Monitoring and Evaluation of Economic Security of Institute for Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, Department of Economic Security and Risk Management, Faculty of Economics and Business

Moscow

villy.eremin@gmail.comФинансовый университетРоссияFinancial UniversityRussian Federation2023120720232734355Copyright © Еремин В.В., 20232023Еремин В.В.Eremin V.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2188

Цель работы — определить влияние динамики обеспеченности денежной массы Российской Федерации золотовалютными резервами (ЗВР) на валютный курс рубля и сформировать подходы к практическому применению результатов исследования. Задачи исследования: теоретическое обоснование формы связи обеспеченности денежной массы ЗВР и курса национальной валюты; анализ связи этих показателей по данным российской экономики за период 1994– 2022 гг.; подкрепление теоретических выкладок данными эмпирического анализа; формирование методологических основ и определение направлений практического применения полученных результатов. Методология исследования основана на графическом анализе данных. Результат этого анализа позволил выявить наличие временных лагов реакции курса рубля на динамику обеспеченности денежной массы Российской Федерации золотовалютными резервами; определить конкретное значение соотношения объема золотовалютных резервов и денежной массы в качестве границы, при пересечении которой будет наблюдаться изменение тренда курса национальной валюты. На основании полученных результатов сделан вывод о возможности и необходимости использования связи анализируемых показателей не только в качестве опережающего индикатора динамики курса рубля, но и в качестве активного инструмента управления курсом национальной валюты в условиях нормализации экономической деятельности.

The purpose of the study is to determine of the influence of the Russian money supply provision with gold and foreign exchange reserves (GFR) on the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in dynamics and to form of approaches to the practical application of the results. The objectives of the study are: theoretical substantiation of the form of connection between the money supply of GFR and the national currency exchange rate; analysis of the relationship of these indicators according to the data of the Russian economy for 27 years at the 1994–2022; reinforcement of theoretical claims with data from empirical analysis; formation of methodological foundations and determination of directions for the practical application of the results obtained. The research methodology is based on graphical data analysis. The results of this analysis identified the presence of time lags in the reaction of the ruble exchange rate to the dynamics of the provision the Russian money supply with GFR; determine the specific value of the ratio of the volume of GFR and the money supply as a boundary, at which the national currency trend will be observed. Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that it is possible and necessary to use the relationship of the analyzed indicators not only as a leading indicator of the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, but also as an active tool to manage the exchange rate of the national currency in a way that normalizes economic activity.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.