financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-4-54-65finance-2300Research ArticleИНВЕСТИЦИИ В ИННОВАЦИИINNOVATION INVESTMENTРазвитие методологии комплексного анализа эффективности государственной финансовоинвестиционной модели социального обеспечения населения на примере региональных финансов РоссииDevelopment of the Methodology for Comprehensive Analysis of the Efficiency of the State Financial and Investment Model of Population Social Security Using the Example of Russian Regional Financehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2829-9900ДорофеевМ. Л.DorofeevM. L.

Михаил Львович Дорофеев — кандидат экономических наук, доцент департамента общественных финансов

Москва

Mikhail L. Dorofeev — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof. of the Department of Public Finance

Moscow

dorofeevml@yandex.ruФинансовый университетРоссияFinancial UniversityRussian Federation2023280820232745465Copyright © Дорофеев М.Л., 20232023Дорофеев М.Л.Dorofeev M.L.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2300

Эффективность финансирования системы социального обеспечения является одним из ключевых условий устойчивого экономического роста. Глобальный экономический кризис 2020 г., связанный с пандемией коронавируса, и следующий за ним кризис 2022 г., обусловленный срочной необходимостью проводить структурную трансформацию российской экономики в условиях масштабных международных санкций, подчеркнули актуальность проблемы повышения эффективности бюджетных расходов на социальную политику. Целью исследования является развитие методологических подходов к проведению комплексного анализа эффективности государственной финансово-инвестиционной модели социального обеспечения населения (ГФИМСОН) на примере данных социально-экономического развития регионов России. Использованы методы: коэффициентного анализа, ранжирования, построения тепловых карт и регрессионного анализа. Коэффициент эффективности бюджетных расходов на региональном уровне позволяет дать достаточно исчерпывающие оценки регионов. Применение методологии регрессионного анализа дает возможность расширить его результативность и выявить важные зависимости и взаимосвязи, на основе которых можно проводить обоснование политики государственного финансового регулирования. Проведена оценка эффективности 85 регионов за период с 2017 по 2021 г. Выявлены наиболее и наименее эффективные регионы. Построение и интерпретация регрессионной модели позволили обосновать, что такие факторы, как размер ВРП, ВРП на душу населения, индекс физического объема ВРП, положительно влияют на эффективность ГФИМСОН. А задолженность населения по кредитам в рублях, объем бюджетных расходов на меры социальной поддержки отдельных категорий граждан, доля населения старше и моложе трудоспособного возраста оказывают отрицательное влияние. Даны рекомендации по развитию механизмов повышения эффективности проверки нуждаемости и обеспечения адресности бюджетных расходов, а также созданию условий для ускорения экономического роста в регионах, что позволит повысить эффективность ГФИМСОН.

The effectiveness of financing the social security system is one of the key conditions for sustaining sustainable economic growth. The global economic crisis of 2020 associated with the coronavirus pandemic, and the subsequent crisis of 2022, due to the urgent need to carry out a structural transformation of the Russian economy in the context of large-scale international sanctions, emphasized the relevance of the problem of increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures on social policy. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological approaches to the comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of the State financial and investment model of social security of the population (further — SFIMSS) using the example of data on the socio-economic development of the regions of Russia. The following methods were used: coefficient analysis, ranking, construction of heat maps and regression analysis. The coefficient of efficiency of budget expenditures at the regional level makes it possible to have fairly comprehensive assessments of the regions. The application of the regression analysis methodology makes it possible to expand its effectiveness and identify important dependencies and relationships on the basis of which it is able to establish the policy of state financial regulation. This study evaluated the effectiveness of 85 regions for the period from 2017 to 2021. The most and least effective regions were identified. The construction and interpretation of the regression model made it possible to identify a number of significant exogenous factors such as GRP, GRP per capita, volume indices of GRP, that positively impact the effectiveness of SFIMSS. At the same time, the public debt on loans in rubles, the volume of budget expenditures on social support measures for certain categories, and the proportion of the population older and younger than working age have a negative impact. In the article, recommendations are given on the development of mechanisms for increasing the efficiency and targeting of budget expenditures, as well as the creation of conditions to accelerate economic growth in regions, which will increase the effectiveness of SFIMSS.

бедностьдоходное неравенствосоциальная политикарегиональные финансырегиональный бюджетэффективность бюджетных расходовгосударственная финансово-инвестиционная модель социального обеспечения населенияpovertyincome inequalitysocial policyregional financeregional budgetefficiency of budget expendituresstate financial and investment model of social securityThe article is prepared based on the research conducted with the support of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University for the year 2023. Financial University, Moscow, Russia.The article is prepared based on the research conducted with the support of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University for the year 2023. Financial University, Moscow, RussiaReferencesDe Neubourg C., Castonguay J., Roelen K. Social safety nets and targeted social assistance: Lessons from the European experience. World Bank SP Discussion Paper. 2007;(718). URL: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/916501468037521250/pdf/415290Safety0nets0SP0071801PUBLIC1.pdf (accessed on 20.12.2022).De Neubourg C., Castonguay J., Roelen K. Social safety nets and targeted social assistance: Lessons from the European experience. World Bank SP Discussion Paper. 2007;(718). URL: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/916501468037521250/pdf/415290Safety0nets0SP0071801PUBLIC1.pdf (accessed on 20.12.2022).Marseille E., Kahn J.G. Utilitarianism and the ethical foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis in resource allocation for global health. Philosophy, Ethics, and Humanities in Medicine. 2019;14(1):5. DOI: 10.1186/ s13010–019–0074–7Marseille E., Kahn J.G. Utilitarianism and the ethical foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis in resource allocation for global health. Philosophy, Ethics, and Humanities in Medicine. 2019;14(1):5. DOI: 10.1186/ s13010–019–0074–7Verguet S., Kim J.J., Jamison D.T. Extended cost-effectiveness analysis for health policy assessment: A tutorial. Pharmacoeconomics. 2016;34(9):913–923. DOI: 10.1007/s40273–016–0414-zVerguet S., Kim J.J., Jamison D.T. Extended cost-effectiveness analysis for health policy assessment: A tutorial. Pharmacoeconomics. 2016;34(9):913–923. DOI: 10.1007/s40273–016–0414-zBarnett W. S., Masse L.N. Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and its policy implications. Economics of Education Review. 2007;26(1):113–125. DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2005.10.007Barnett W. S., Masse L.N. Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and its policy implications. Economics of Education Review. 2007;26(1):113–125. DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2005.10.007Bos F., van der Pol T., Romijn G. Should benefit-cost analysis include a correction for the marginal excess burden of taxation? Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis. 2019;10(3):379–403. DOI: 10.1017/bca.2019.11Bos F., van der Pol T., Romijn G. Should benefit-cost analysis include a correction for the marginal excess burden of taxation? Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis. 2019;10(3):379–403. DOI: 10.1017/bca.2019.11Lave L.B. Benefit-cost analysis: Do the benefits exceed the costs? In: Hahn R.W., ed. Risks, costs, and lives saved: Getting better results from regulation. Washington, DC: AEI Press; 1996:104–134.Lave L.B. Benefit-cost analysis: Do the benefits exceed the costs? In: Hahn R.W., ed. Risks, costs, and lives saved: Getting better results from regulation. Washington, DC: AEI Press; 1996:104–134.Coelli T., Rao D.S.P., Battese G.E. Efficiency measurement using data envelopment analysis (DEA). In: An introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis. Boston, MA: Springer-Verlag; 1998:133–160. DOI: 10.1007/978–1–4615–5493–6_6Coelli T., Rao D.S.P., Battese G.E. Efficiency measurement using data envelopment analysis (DEA). In: An introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis. Boston, MA: Springer-Verlag; 1998:133–160. DOI: 10.1007/978–1–4615–5493–6_6Gupta S., Verhoeven M. The efficiency of government expenditure: experiences from Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling. 2001;23(4):433–467. DOI: 10.1016/s0161–8938(00)00036–3Gupta S., Verhoeven M. The efficiency of government expenditure: experiences from Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling. 2001;23(4):433–467. DOI: 10.1016/s0161–8938(00)00036–3De Borger B. et al. A non-parametric free disposal hull (FDH) approach to technical efficiency: An illustration of radial and graph efficiency measures and some sensitivity results. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. 1994;130(4):647–667. URL: http://www.sjes.ch/papers/1994-IV‑3.pdfDe Borger B. et al. A non-parametric free disposal hull (FDH) approach to technical efficiency: An illustration of radial and graph efficiency measures and some sensitivity results. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. 1994;130(4):647–667. URL: http://www.sjes.ch/papers/1994-IV‑3.pdfLim B., Lee K., Lee C. Free Disposal Hull (FDH) analysis for efficiency measurement: An update to DEA. The Stata Journal. 2016;10(2):1–8. URL: https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/archive/doc/stata/MO/DEA/free_disposal_hull.pdfLim B., Lee K., Lee C. Free Disposal Hull (FDH) analysis for efficiency measurement: An update to DEA. The Stata Journal. 2016;10(2):1–8. URL: https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/archive/doc/stata/MO/DEA/free_disposal_hull.pdfDorofeev M.L. Interrelations between income inequality and sustainable economic growth: Contradictions of empirical research and new results. Economies. 2022;10(2):44. DOI: 10.3390/economies10020044Dorofeev M.L. Interrelations between income inequality and sustainable economic growth: Contradictions of empirical research and new results. Economies. 2022;10(2):44. DOI: 10.3390/economies10020044Afonso A., St. Aubyn M. Cross-country efficiency of secondary education provision: A semi-parametric analysis with non-discretionary inputs. Economic modelling. 2006;23(3):476–491. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.02.003Afonso A., St. Aubyn M. Cross-country efficiency of secondary education provision: A semi-parametric analysis with non-discretionary inputs. Economic modelling. 2006;23(3):476–491. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.02.003Karaev A.K., Gorlova O. S., Sedova M. L., Ponkratov V.V., Shmigol N. S., Demidova S. E. Improving the accuracy of forecasting the TSA daily budgetary fund balance based on wavelet packet transforms. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity. 2022;8(3):107. DOI: 10.3390/joitmc8030107Karaev A.K., Gorlova O. S., Sedova M. L., Ponkratov V.V., Shmigol N. S., Demidova S. E. Improving the accuracy of forecasting the TSA daily budgetary fund balance based on wavelet packet transforms. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity. 2022;8(3):107. DOI: 10.3390/joitmc8030107Hauner D. Benchmarking the efficiency of public expenditure in the Russian Federation. IMF Working Paper. 2007;(246). URL: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp07246.pdf (accessed on 20.12.2022).Hauner D. Benchmarking the efficiency of public expenditure in the Russian Federation. IMF Working Paper. 2007;(246). URL: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp07246.pdf (accessed on 20.12.2022).Herrera S., Pang G. Efficiency of public spending in developing countries: An efficiency frontier approach. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. 2005;(3645). URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/262621468135939068/pdf/wps3645.pdf (accessed on 20.12.2022).Herrera S., Pang G. Efficiency of public spending in developing countries: An efficiency frontier approach. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. 2005;(3645). URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/262621468135939068/pdf/wps3645.pdf (accessed on 20.12.2022).Vasyunina M. L., Lipatova I.V. The effectiveness of government spending on health services. In: Popkova E.G., ed. Business 4.0 as a subject of the digital economy. Cham: Springer-Verlag; 2022:1197–1201. (Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation). DOI: 10.1007/978–3–030–90324–4_199Vasyunina M. L., Lipatova I.V. The effectiveness of government spending on health services. In: Popkova E.G., ed. Business 4.0 as a subject of the digital economy. Cham: Springer-Verlag; 2022:1197–1201. (Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation). DOI: 10.1007/978–3–030–90324–4_199

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.