financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-5-150-159finance-2403Research ArticleНАЛОГОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКАTAX POlICYНалоговая политика и макроуправление: данные по ВьетнамуThe Tax Policy and Macro Management: Evidence in Vietnamhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4569-5152ДинxД. В.DinhD. V.

Доан Ван Динь — кандидат экономических наук, факультет финансов и банковского дела

Хошимин

Doan Van Dinh —  Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Faculty of Finance and Banking

Ho Chi Minh

citydinhninh@yahoo.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-8517-0667ХаН. Т.HaN. T.

Нгуен Тхи Ха —  кандидат экономических наук, факультет бухгалтерского учета —  ревизия

Ханой

Ngyuen Thi Ha —  Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Faculty of Accounting —  Auditing

Hanoi

ha.nt@tmu.edu.vnПромышленный университет ХошиминаВьетнамIndustrial University of Ho Chi Minh CityViet NamУниверситет ТхыонгмайВьетнамThuongmai UniversityViet Nam202323102023275150159Copyright © Динx Д.В., Ха Н.Т., 20232023Динx Д.В., Ха Н.Т.Dinh D.V., Ha N.T.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2403

Актуальность исследования определяется необходимостью совершенствования налоговой политики Вьетнама.

Научная новизна исследования заключается в применении регрессионной модели анализа динамики ВВП в целях определения оптимальной налоговой политики.

Целью данного исследования является изучение взаимосвязи между соотношением налогов к ВВП и экономическим ростом, оптимального порога соотношения налогов к ВВП, а также сравнение эмпирических результатов с фактическими соотношениями налогов к ВВП в качестве основы для совершенствования налоговой политики и макроуправления государством.

Методология данного исследования включает пороговую регрессионную модель, тест на единичный корень и тест на коинтеграцию для изучения влияния отношения налоговых поступлений к ВВП на рост ВВП. Автор использовал фактические данные о динамике налоговых доходов и ВВП за 25-летний период: с 1994 по 2020 г., отразил развитие исследований экономического роста. Показано, что отношение налоговых поступлений к ВВП и рост ВВП тесно связаны на уровне 86%. Связь между налоговой политикой Вьетнама и экономическим ростом носит долгосрочный характер, а оптимальный порог отношения налоговых поступлений к ВВП составляет 19%, что приводит к экономическому росту.

Сделан вывод, что правительство должно прилагать больше усилий для совершенствования фискальной политики и макроуправления с целью стимулирования экономического роста и сокращения бюджетного дефицита. Фискальная политика оказывает значительное влияние на хозяйствующие субъекты, т. е. на экономические организации, создающие богатство для общества, и высокую занятость, что приводит к снижению уровня безработицы. Результаты исследования могут быть использованы в целях формирования налоговой политики Вьетнама.

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to improve the tax policy of Vietnam.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in the application of a regression model for analysing GDP dynamics to determine the optimal tax policy.

The purpose of this study is to study the relationship between the tax-to-GDP ratio and economic growth, the optimal threshold for the tax-toGDP ratio, and to compare empirical results with actual tax-to-GDP ratios as a basis for improving tax policy and government micromanagement.

The methodology of this study includes a threshold regression model, a unit root test, and a cointegration test to examine the impact of the ratio of tax revenues to GDP-on-GDP growth. The author used actual data on the dynamics of tax revenues and GDP over a 25-year period: from 1994 to 2020, reflected the development of economic growth studies.

It is shown that the ratio of tax revenues to GDP and GDP growth are closely related at the level of 86%. The relationship between Vietnam’s tax policy and economic growth is long-term, and the optimal threshold for the ratio of tax revenue to GDP is 19%, which leads to economic growth. It is concluded that the government should make more efforts to improve fiscal policy and macro management to stimulate economic growth and reduce the budget deficit. Fiscal policy has a significant impact on business entities, that is, economic organizations that create wealth for society and high employment, which leads to a decrease in unemployment. The results of the study can be used to form the tax policy of Vietnam. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.