financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-5-205-218finance-2408Research ArticleЦИФРОВЫЕ ФИНАНСОВЫЕ АКТИВЫDIGITAL FINANCIAL ASSETSМогут ли транзакции с электронными деньгами повысить уровень инфляции? (из опыта Индонезии до начала пандемии)Can an Electronic Money Transaction Raise the Inflation Rate? (Indonesian Pre-Pandemic)https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9478-0316ФадлиФ.FadliF.

Файшал Фадли — PhD в сфере экономики, руководитель международной программы бакалавриата экономического факультета, преподаватель Школы экономики и бизнеса

Маланг

Faishal Fadli —  PhD in Econ., Head of International Undergraduate Program Economics Departement; Lecturer, School of Economics and Business

Malang

faishalfadli@ub.ac.idhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7340-1911ДевиаВ.DeviaV.

Виета Девиа —  PhD в сфере финансов, руководитель группы обеспечения качества экономического факультета, преподаватель Школы экономики и бизнеса

Маланг

Vietha Devia — PhD in Finance, Head of Quality Assurance Unit Economics Departement; Lecturer, School of Economics and Business

Malang

vietha.devia@ub.ac.idУниверситет БравиджаяИндонезияBrawijaya UniversityIndonesia202323102023275205218Copyright © Фадли Ф., Девиа В., 20232023Фадли Ф., Девиа В.Fadli F., Devia V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2408

Вместе с бурным развитием технологий меняются и платежные средства. Электронные деньги медленно, но верно замещают бумажные и монеты. Появление электронных денег обеспечивает удобство для потребителей, это может привести к росту спроса на товары и услуги, что в конечном итоге может вызвать инфляцию, стимулирующую спрос.

Цель данного исследования —  определить влияние операций с электронными деньгами (как в натуральном, так и в стоимостном выражении) на рост инфляции. Использование тестов Chow Breakpoint Test, Difference in Differences и Propensity Score Matching показывает, что в период после того, как Банк Индонезии внедрил в действие программу национальной безналичной кампании, движение инфляции имело тенденцию к снижению. С помощью модели коррекции ошибок и метода наименьших квадратов (OLS) выявлено, что увеличение объема операций с электронными деньгами в долгосрочном периоде может повлиять на снижение инфляции, но не в краткосрочном. Ставка Банка Индонезии, рост кредитования и ВВП обусловили снижение уровня инфляции.

Сделан вывод, что Банк Индонезии может расширить использование электронных денег для манипулирования уровнем инфляции в долгосрочной перспективе. Политика, которую может проводить Банк Индонезии, заключается в более равномерном распределении сервисов системы электронных денег и повышении уровня их социализации, особенно в отдаленных районах. 

Along with the rapid growth of technology, payment instruments are also changing. Electronic money is slowly but surely replacing the role of paper money and coins. The emergence of electronic money can provide convenience for consumers, it can lead to an increase in the demand for goods and services that ultimately leads to demand-pull inflation.

The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of electronic money transactions (both in natural and in value terms) on inflation growth. By using the Chow Breakpoint Test, Difference-in-Differences and Propensity Score Matching shows that the inflation trend has tended to decline since the Bank of Indonesia launched its national non-cash campaign.

By using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method was revealed that an increase in the volume of electronic money transactions in the long-term may affect a decrease in inflation, but not in the short-term. The rate of interest of the Bank of Indonesia, the growth of lending and GDP led to the decline in inflation.

It was concluded that the Bank of Indonesia could expand the use of electronic money to manipulate inflation levels in the long-term. The policy that can be implemented by Bank Indonesia is to distribute electronic money infrastructure services more evenly and increase the socialization of the use of electronic money, especially in remote areas.

электронные деньгиинфляциякраткосрочнаядолгосрочнаямодель коррекции ошибоксопоставление показателей склонностиразница в разностяхтест на точку разрыва Чоуelectronic moneyinflation rateshort-runlong-runerror correction modelpropensity score matchingdifference in differencesСhow testReferencesKochergin D. A., Yangirova A. I. Central Bank digital currencies: Key characteristics and directions of influence on monetary and credit and payment systems. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2019;23(4):80–98. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2019–23–4–80–98Kochergin D. A., Yangirova A. I. Central Bank digital currencies: Key characteristics and directions of influence on monetary and credit and payment systems. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2019;23(4):80–98. DOI: 10.26794/2587–5671–2019–23–4–80–98Gunawan H., Sinaga B. L., Purnomo W. P.S. Assessment of the readiness of micro, small and medium enterprises in using e-money using the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) method. Procedia Computer Science. 2019;161:316–323. DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2019.11.129Gunawan H., Sinaga B. L., Purnomo W. P.S. Assessment of the readiness of micro, small and medium enterprises in using e-money using the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) method. Procedia Computer Science. 2019;161:316–323. DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2019.11.129Kartika V. T., Nugroho A. A.B. Analysis on electronic money transactions on velocity of money in ASEAN-5 countries. Journal of Business and Management. 2015;4(9):44–56.Kartika V. T., Nugroho A. A.B. Analysis on electronic money transactions on velocity of money in ASEAN-5 countries. Journal of Business and Management. 2015;4(9):44–56.Luo S., Zhou G., Zhou J. The impact of electronic money on monetary policy: Based on DSGE model simulations. Mathematics. 2021;9(20):2614. DOI: 10.3390/math9202614Luo S., Zhou G., Zhou J. The impact of electronic money on monetary policy: Based on DSGE model simulations. Mathematics. 2021;9(20):2614. DOI: 10.3390/math9202614Mele A., Stefanski R. Velocity in the long run: Money and structural transformation. Review of Economic Dynamics. 2019;31:393–410. DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.09.004Mele A., Stefanski R. Velocity in the long run: Money and structural transformation. Review of Economic Dynamics. 2019;31:393–410. DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.09.004Calson-Öhman F. The effect of increased e-commerce on inflation. Master degree thesis. Stockholm: Institution for Social Sciences; 2018. 31 p. URL: https://sh.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1214628/FULLTEXT01.pdfCalson-Öhman F. The effect of increased e-commerce on inflation. Master degree thesis. Stockholm: Institution for Social Sciences; 2018. 31 p. URL: https://sh.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1214628/FULLTEXT01.pdfRen X., Shao Q., Zhong R. Nexus between green finance, non-fossil energy use, and carbon intensity: Empirical evidence from China based on a vector error correction model. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2020;277:122844. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122844Ren X., Shao Q., Zhong R. Nexus between green finance, non-fossil energy use, and carbon intensity: Empirical evidence from China based on a vector error correction model. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2020;277:122844. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122844Wang L., Hou H., Weng J. Ordinary least squares modelling of urban heat island intensity based on landscape composition and configuration: A comparative study among three megacities along the Yangtze River. Sustainable Cities and Society. 2020;62:102381. DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102381Wang L., Hou H., Weng J. Ordinary least squares modelling of urban heat island intensity based on landscape composition and configuration: A comparative study among three megacities along the Yangtze River. Sustainable Cities and Society. 2020;62:102381. DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102381Simamora R. H. Socialization of information technology utilization and knowledge of information system effectiveness at Hospital Nurses in Medan, North Sumatra. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications. 2019;10(9):117–121. DOI: 10.14569/IJACSA.2019.0100916Simamora R. H. Socialization of information technology utilization and knowledge of information system effectiveness at Hospital Nurses in Medan, North Sumatra. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications. 2019;10(9):117–121. DOI: 10.14569/IJACSA.2019.0100916Ayinde K., Lukman A. F., Rauf R. I., Alabi O. O., Okon C. E., Ayinde O. E. Modeling Nigerian COVID-19 cases: A comparative analysis of models and estimators. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. 2020;138:109911. DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109911Ayinde K., Lukman A. F., Rauf R. I., Alabi O. O., Okon C. E., Ayinde O. E. Modeling Nigerian COVID-19 cases: A comparative analysis of models and estimators. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. 2020;138:109911. DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109911Petrevska B. Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models. Ekonomska Istraživanja = Economic Research. 2017;30(1):939–950. DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2017.1314822Petrevska B. Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models. Ekonomska Istraživanja = Economic Research. 2017;30(1):939–950. DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2017.1314822Fadli F., Maski G., Sumantri V. D.S. Earmarking tax: Can it increase public trust in the Indonesian government? Institutions and Economies. 2020;12(2):1–40. URL: https://ijie.um.edu.my/index.php/ijie/article/view/17016/11582Fadli F., Maski G., Sumantri V. D.S. Earmarking tax: Can it increase public trust in the Indonesian government? Institutions and Economies. 2020;12(2):1–40. URL: https://ijie.um.edu.my/index.php/ijie/article/view/17016/11582Yan Y., Hongbing O. Effects of house-sale restrictions in China: A difference-in-difference approach. Applied Economic Letters. 2018;25(15):1051–1057. DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1394968Yan Y., Hongbing O. Effects of house-sale restrictions in China: A difference-in-difference approach. Applied Economic Letters. 2018;25(15):1051–1057. DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1394968Bhattarai S., Eggertsson G. B., Schoenle R. Is increased price flexibility stabilizing? Redux. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2018;100:66–82. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.07.006Bhattarai S., Eggertsson G. B., Schoenle R. Is increased price flexibility stabilizing? Redux. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2018;100:66–82. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.07.006Rhee H. J., Song J. Wage rigidities and unemployment fluctuations in a small open economy. Economic Modelling. 2020;88:244–262. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.033Rhee H. J., Song J. Wage rigidities and unemployment fluctuations in a small open economy. Economic Modelling. 2020;88:244–262. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.033Shu Y., Cai J. “Alcohol bans”: Can they reveal the effect of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign? European Journal of Political Economy. 2017;50:37–51. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.09.004Shu Y., Cai J. “Alcohol bans”: Can they reveal the effect of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign? European Journal of Political Economy. 2017;50:37–51. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.09.004Brown M., Hentschel N., Mettler H., Stix H. The convenience of electronic payments and consumer cash demand. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2022;130:86–102. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.06.001Brown M., Hentschel N., Mettler H., Stix H. The convenience of electronic payments and consumer cash demand. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2022;130:86–102. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.06.001Eo Y., Lie D. Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing. Economics Letters. 2020;189:109005. DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109005Eo Y., Lie D. Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing. Economics Letters. 2020;189:109005. DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109005Chen H. Nominal GDP targeting, real economic activity and inflation stabilization in a new Keynesian framework. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 2020;78:53–63. DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2020.01.002Chen H. Nominal GDP targeting, real economic activity and inflation stabilization in a new Keynesian framework. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 2020;78:53–63. DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2020.01.002Alvarez F., Lippi F. Cash burns: An inventory model with a cash-credit choice. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2017;90:99–112. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.07.001Alvarez F., Lippi F. Cash burns: An inventory model with a cash-credit choice. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2017;90:99–112. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.07.001Alvarez F., Lippi F., Robatto R. Cost of inflation in inventory theoretical models. Review of Economic Dynamics. 2019;32:206–226. DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.11.001Alvarez F., Lippi F., Robatto R. Cost of inflation in inventory theoretical models. Review of Economic Dynamics. 2019;32:206–226. DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.11.001Švigir M., Miloš J. Relationship between inflation and economic growth; comparative experience of Italy and Austria. FIP: Financije i pravo. 2017;5(2):91–101. URL: https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/285035Švigir M., Miloš J. Relationship between inflation and economic growth; comparative experience of Italy and Austria. FIP: Financije i pravo. 2017;5(2):91–101. URL: https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/285035Alberola E., Urrutia C. Does informality facilitate inflation stability? Journal of Development Economics. 2020;146:102505. DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102505Alberola E., Urrutia C. Does informality facilitate inflation stability? Journal of Development Economics. 2020;146:102505. DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102505Kumar A., Dash P. Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India. Economic Modelling. 2020;92:109–125. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.07.016Kumar A., Dash P. Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India. Economic Modelling. 2020;92:109–125. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.07.016Balima H. W., Kilama E. G., Tapsoba R. Inflation targeting: Genuine effects or publication selection bias? European Economic Review. 2020;128:103520. DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103520Balima H. W., Kilama E. G., Tapsoba R. Inflation targeting: Genuine effects or publication selection bias? European Economic Review. 2020;128:103520. DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103520Davoli M., Rodríguez-Planas N. Culture and adult financial literacy: Evidence from the United States. Economics of Education Review. 2020;78:102013. DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2020.102013Davoli M., Rodríguez-Planas N. Culture and adult financial literacy: Evidence from the United States. Economics of Education Review. 2020;78:102013. DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2020.102013

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.