financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-1-145-154finance-2686Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ФИНАНСЫINTERNATIONAL FINANCEВалютные резервы и экономический рост Бразилии: нелинейный подходForeign Exchange Reserves and Economic Growth of Brazil: A Nonlinear Approachhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4940-8264КашифМ.KashifM.

Мохаммад Кашиф — PhD, доцент, факультет управленческих наук, Университет графической эпохи

Дехрадун

Mohammad Kashif — PhD, Assist. Prof., Department of Management studies

Dehradun

mkashif69@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0700-8086СингхалН.SinghalN.

Никита Сингхал — PhD, доцент, Школа коммерции и менеджмента

Мират

Nikita Singhal — PhD, Associate Prof., School of Commerce and Management

Meerut

nikitagoyal.nikki@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7634-4403ГоялШ.GoyalS.

Шикха Гоял — PhD, доцент, Юридическая школа Эмити

Нойда

Shikha Goyal — PhD, Assist. Prof, Amity Law School

Noida

shikhagoyal.sg94@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6071-0109СингхС. К.SinghS. K.

Сатиш Кумар  Сингх — PhD, профессор, декан школы коммерции и менеджмента

Мирут

Satish Kumar Singh — PhD, Professor & Dean, School of Commerce and Management

Meerut

skpsatish@gmail.comУниверситет Графической Эры считаетсяИндияGraphic Era Deemed to be UniversityIndiaУниверситет IIMTИндияIIMT UniversityIndiaУниверситет АмитиИндияAmity UniversityIndia202401032024281145154Copyright © Кашиф М., Сингхал Н., Гоял Ш., Сингх С.К., 20242024Кашиф М., Сингхал Н., Гоял Ш., Сингх С.К.Kashif M., Singhal N., Goyal S., Singh S.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2686

Цель исследования — определить линейные и нелинейные причинно-следственные связи между накопленными международными резервами и экономическим ростом в Бразилии. Использовались квартальные данные за период с I квартала 1989 по IV квартал 2021 г. Применялись такие эконометрические методы, как дополненный тест на единичный корень Дики-Фуллера и Зивота-Эндрюса, линейный тест причинности Грейнджера, тест коинтеграции Йохансена, тест BDS и нелинейный тест причинности Грейнджера, предложенный Хиемстрой и Джонсом. Исследование показало, что существует двунаправленная линейная причинность. Тест Хиемстры и Джонса выявляет двунаправленную нелинейную причинно-следственную связь между переменными. В исследовании предпринята попытка определить нелинейную взаимосвязь между международными резервами и экономическим ростом, в то время как в предыдущих исследованиях изучались в основном линейные взаимосвязи. Благодаря выявлению нелинейной связи между переменными данное исследование восполняет пробел в научной литературе. Разработчики внешнеторговой политики могут использовать разработанную здесь модель для формулирования применимой политики в отношении валютных резервов. Исходя из полученных результатов, сделан вывод, что Бразилия может накапливать валютные резервы, если избыточные активы будут инвестированы в альтернативные источники, такие как проекты экономической инфраструктуры и развитие региональной инфраструктуры.

The research aims to look at the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between Brazil’s accumulated international reserves and economic growth from 1989 Q1 through 2021 Q4. For empirical investigation, this study employed econometric procedures such as the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests, the linear Granger causality test, Johansen’s cointegration test, the BDS test, and the nonlinear Granger causality test proposed by Hiemstra and Jones. The study concluded that there is a bidirectional linear and non-linear causality between foreign exchange reserve and economic growth. This study fills the gap in the literature by exploring the nonlinear relationship between international reserves and economic growth, while earlier studies primarily explored linear relationships. Foreign trade policymakers can utilize the model developed here to formulate applicable policies about foreign exchange reserves. Based on the findings, the study proposes that Brazil can accrue foreign reserves if surplus assets are invested in alternate sources such as economic infrastructure projects and regional infrastructure development.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.