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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">finance</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Finance: Theory and Practice</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-5671</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2587-7089</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-2-192-205</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">finance-2822</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ФОНДОВЫЕ РЫНКИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>STOCK MARKETS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Эволюция влияния COVID-19 на фондовый рынок России: эффект паники</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Evolution of COVID-19 Impact on Russian Stock Market: Panic Effect</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7032-5826</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Егорова</surname><given-names>Ю. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Egorova</surname><given-names>Yu. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Егорова Юлия Вадимовна — кандидат технических наук, доцент кафедры экономики предпринимательства Института экономики и управления, УУНиТ; научный сотрудник, УрФУ им. первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина.</p><p>Уфа; Екатеринбург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Yulia V. Egorova — Cand. Sci (Tech.), Assoc. Prof., Department of Business Economics of the Institute of Economics and Management, Ufa University of Science and Technology; Researcher, B.N. Yeltsin Ural Federal University.</p><p>Ufa; Ekaterinburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">jvegorova@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7226-2689</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Непп</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Nepp</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Непп Александр Николаевич — кандидат экономических наук, доцент, научный сотрудник, УрФУ; доцент, УИУ РАНХиГС.</p><p>Екатеринбург</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexander N. Nepp — Cand. Sci (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., researcher, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin; Assoc. Prof., Ural Institute of Management of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.</p><p>Yekaterinburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">anepp@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7649-8624</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тищенко</surname><given-names>И. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Tishchenko</surname><given-names>I. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Тищенко Илья Игоревич — магистрант, департамент прикладной экономики факультета экономических наук.</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ilya I. Tishchenko — Master’s student, Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Higher School of Economics.</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">i.i.tishchenko@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Уфимский университет науки и технологий; Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Ufa University of Science and Technology; Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia Boris Yeltsin</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина; Уральский институт управления РАНХиГС</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia Boris Yeltsin; Ural Institute of Management of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Высшая школа экономики</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Higher School of Economics</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2024</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>04</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>28</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>192</fpage><lpage>205</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Егорова Ю.В., Непп А.Н., Тищенко И.И., 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Егорова Ю.В., Непп А.Н., Тищенко И.И.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Egorova Y.V., Nepp A.A., Tishchenko I.I.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2822">https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/2822</self-uri><abstract><p>Исследования, связывающие движения фондовых рынков с вниманием и настроениями инвесторов, стали довольно обширными за последние несколько лет, и наша статья дополняет текущую литературу о реакции финансовых рынков на экономические последствия COVID-19. Такое событие, как вспышка инфекционного заболевания, вызывает негативные изменения в настроениях инвесторов, которые сильно влияют на их инвестиционные решения и, следовательно, на цены на фондовом рынке. Предметом исследования является взаимовлияние характеристик фондового рынка и настроений рынка в условиях кризиса, связанного с пандемией COVID-19. Цель исследования — получить эмпирическое подтверждение гипотезы косвенного воздействия неопределенности и паники в условиях пандемии COVID-19 на динамику фондового рынка России. Прогнозы Всемирной организации здравоохранения и оценки экспертов позволяют предположить, что мир еще не раз столкнется с кризисами, связанными с распространением инфекционных болезней, поэтому понимание механизмов взаимовлияния настроений и финансовых рынков остается актуальным. В данном исследовании мы используем новый подход в получении показателя, отражающего панику на рынке, не применявшийся ранее. Мы осуществляем эконометрическое моделирование с помощью модели векторной авторегрессии (VAR) и векторной модели коррекции ошибками (VECM), что позволяет описать в модели не только долгосрочное равновесие, но и динамику движения к нему. В результате мы получили состоятельные и эффективные оценки долгосрочных и краткосрочных эффектов влияния паники и смертности на волатильность фондового индекса RTS и обнаружили, что реакция рынка на COVID-19 менялась по мере распространения пандемии: эффекты неопределенности и паники, оказывая существенное влияние в начале кризиса, сходят на нет. Выводы, полученные при анализе динамики российского фондового рынка, совпадают с выводами, полученными другими авторами при анализе рынков других стран за аналогичный период.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Over the past few years, many research papers have referred to stock market volatility in relation to investor attention and sentiment and our article adds to the current literature on financial market reactions to the economic consequences of COVID-19. An event such as an outbreak of an infectious disease causes a negative change in investor sentiment, which strongly influences their investment decisions and, consequently, stock market prices. The subject of the study is the mutual influence of stock market characteristics and market sentiment, during a COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The purpose of the study is to provide empirical support for the hypothesis of indirect impact of uncertainty and panic under the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of the stock market in Russia. The World Health Organization and experts forecast that the world will face more than one crisis related to the spread of infectious diseases in the future, so understanding the mechanisms of mutual influence of sentiment and financial markets remains relevant. In this study, we take a novel approach to deriving an indicator for panic that has not been used before. We perform econometric modeling using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which allows us to describe in the model not only the long-term equilibrium but also the dynamics towards it. As a result, we got consistent and efficient estimates of the long-term and short-term effects of panic and mortality rates on the volatility of the RTS stock index and found that the market reaction to COVID-19 changed as the pandemic spread: the effects of uncertainty and panic, while having a significant impact at the beginning of the crisis, faded away. The conclusions obtained in the analysis of the Russian stock market dynamics coincide with those obtained by other authors in their analysis of markets in other countries over a similar period.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>пандемия</kwd><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>фондовые рынки</kwd><kwd>фондовые индексы</kwd><kwd>паника</kwd><kwd>RTS</kwd><kwd>VAR модель</kwd><kwd>ECM</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>pandemic</kwd><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>stock markets</kwd><kwd>stock indices</kwd><kwd>panic</kwd><kwd>RTS</kwd><kwd>VAR model</kwd><kwd>ECM</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено при поддержке РФФИ в рамках научного проекта «Пандемия и массовая истерия. Эффекты воздействия и минимизация негативного влияния на фондовый рынок» № 20–04–60158. Вирусы». Уральский федеральный университет им. первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина, Екатеринбург, Россия.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of the scientific project “Pandemic and mass hysteria. Effects and Minimization of Negative Effects on Stock Market No. 20–04–60158. Viruses”. B.N. Yeltsin Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russia.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Jin L., Zheng B., Ma J., et al. Empirical study and model simulation of global stock market dynamics during COVID-19. Chaos, Solitons &amp; Fractals. 2022;159:112138. DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112138</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Jin L., Zheng B., Ma J., et al. Empirical study and model simulation of global stock market dynamics during COVID-19. Chaos, Solitons &amp; Fractals. 2022;159:112138. 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