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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">finance</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Finance: Theory and Practice</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2587-5671</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2587-7089</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26794/2587-5671-2025-29-2-228-237</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">finance-3612</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>НАЛОГОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>TAX POlICY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Сравнение моделей цикличности фискальной политики в зарубежных странах</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Comparison of Fiscal Policy Cyclicality Models in Foreign Countries</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2148-6236</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Какаулина</surname><given-names>М. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kakaulina</surname><given-names>M. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Мария Олеговна Какаулина — кандидат экономических наук, доцент, доцент кафедры общественных финансов финансового факультета</p><p>Москва</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Maria O. Kakaulina — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Department of Public Finance, Faculty of Finance</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">mokakaulina@fa.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2169-4190</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Демидова</surname><given-names>С. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Demidova</surname><given-names>S. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Светлана Евгеньевна Демидова — кандидат экономических наук, доцент, доцент кафедры общественных финансов финансового факультета</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Svetlana E. Demidova — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Department of Public Finance, Faculty of Finance</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">demidovapsk@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Финансовый университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Financial University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>09</day><month>05</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>29</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>228</fpage><lpage>237</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Какаулина М.О., Демидова С.Е., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Какаулина М.О., Демидова С.Е.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kakaulina M.O., Demidova S.E.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/3612">https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/3612</self-uri><abstract><p>Статья посвящена вопросам цикличности фискальной политики зарубежных стран. Цель исследования - оценка цикличности фискальной политики через влияние динамики экономического роста на уровень государственных расходов и налоговых ставок отдельных федеративных стран «Группы двадцати» за период 1971-2022 гг. для учета полученных результатов при формировании направлений бюджетно-налоговой политики. Цель предопределила постановку следующих задач - анализ цикличности бюджетной политики по расходам, анализ цикличности налоговой политики, а также сравнение полученных результатов с целью выявления общих паттернов цикличности для стран со схожим уровнем экономического развития. Изучение цикличности фискальной политики является актуальным, поскольку позволяет правительствам адаптировать свои налоговые и бюджетные меры в зависимости от текущего состояния экономики. Это помогает сглаживать колебания в экономической активности и снижать риски рецессий. Методы исследования - эконометрическое моделирование (построение модели линейной регрессии и использование метода объединенной оценки двоичных наименьших квадратов), сравнение, анализ. Основные результаты исследования: процикличность политики государственных расходов подтверждена во всех исследуемых странах на рассмотренном временном горизонте, при этом она имеет обратную зависимость от уровня экономического развития страны (чем выше уровень развития страны в оцениваемый период, тем менее проциклической является ее политика по расходам). Политика всех рассмотренных стран является фискально-контрциклической по НДС, корпоративному и индивидуальному подоходным налогам, но степень контрцикличности везде различна. Новизной исследования является построение динамической модели без свободного члена, а также включение в анализ периодов мирового финансового кризиса, пандемии, современного этапа смены технологического уклада и геополитической бифуркации. Практическая значимость исследования заключается в возможности сбалансированного развития территорий: в федеративных странах, где существует различная экономическая активность и уровни доходов в разных регионах, установление вида цикличности фискальной политики позволяет более равномерно распределять налоговые и бюджетные ресурсы для поддержания устойчивого развития всех регионов. Сделан вывод о том, что влияние реального ВВП на процентное изменение реальных государственных расходов и налоговых ставок характеризуется фискальной контрцикличностью во всех странах. Влияние на цикличность происходит через лимитирование параметров бюджета во время экономических спадов, когда стоимость финансирования дополнительных расходов может значительно возрасти при отсутствии сформированного резерва.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article is devoted to the issues of fiscal policy cyclicality in foreign countries. The purpose of the article is to explore the features of the fiscal policy cyclicality of some federal countries - representatives of the “group of twenty” for the period from 1971 to 2022. The objective predetermined the setting of the following tasks: to analyze the cyclicality of fiscal policy by expenditures, to analyze the cyclicality of tax policy, as well as to compare the obtained results to identify common patterns of cyclicality for countries with a similar level of economic development. The study of fiscal policy cyclicality is relevant because it allows governments to adjust their fiscal policies according to the current state of the economy. This helps to smooth out fluctuations in economic activity and reduce the risk of recessions. Research methods - econometric modeling (building a linear regression model and using pooled binary least squares estimation), comparison, analysis. Main results of the study: the procyclicality of the public expenditure policy is confirmed in all the countries studied over the period considered, and it has an inverse dependence on the level of economic development of the country (the higher the level of development of the country in the period considered, the less procyclical its expenditure policy). The fiscal policy of all countries under consideration is countercyclical in terms of VAT, corporate and individual income taxes, but the degree of countercyclicality is different everywhere. The novelty of the study is the construction of a dynamic model without a free term, as well as the inclusion in the analysis of periods of global financial crisis, pandemic, the current stage of technological mode change and geopolitical bifurcation. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of balanced development of territories: in federal countries, where there are different levels of economic activity and income in different regions, the establishment of the type of cyclicality of fiscal policy allows a more even distribution of tax and budgetary resources to support the sustainable development of all regions.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>фискальная политика</kwd><kwd>бюджетные расходы</kwd><kwd>налоговые ставки</kwd><kwd>контрцикличность</kwd><kwd>процикличность</kwd><kwd>финансовый кризис</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>fiscal policy</kwd><kwd>budget expenditures</kwd><kwd>tax rates</kwd><kwd>countercyclicality</kwd><kwd>procyclicality</kwd><kwd>financial crisis</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Статья подготовлена по результатам исследований, выполненных за счет бюджетных средств по государственному заданию Финуниверситету</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds on the state assignment of the Financial University</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">House C. 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