financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2026-30-5-1389-03finance-4024Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ ФИНАНСЫINTERNATIONAL FINANCEМодель коррекции ошибок текущего счета платежного баланса Азербайджана с учетом макроэкономических показателей и мировых цен на нефтьModel of Correction of Errors of the Current Account of the Balance of Payments of Azerbaijan, Taking Into Account Macroeconomic Indicators and World Oil Priceshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3225-389XАйюбоваН. С.AyyubovaN. S.

Натаван Солтан кызы Айюбова — кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры математической экономики

Баку

Natavan S. Ayyubova — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Department of Mathematical Economics

Baku

nayyubova50@gmail.comБакинский государственный университетАзербайджанBaku State UniversityAzerbaijan20242611202500Принято в печать4024Copyright © Айюбова Н.С., 20242024Айюбова Н.С.Ayyubova N.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/4024

Цель исследования — определить влияние на динамику текущего счета платежного баланса Азербайджана таких факторов, как ВВП, инвестиции, курс национальной валюты, дефицит государственного бюджета, показатели внешнеторгового сектора, уровень валютных резервов и мировых цен на нефть марки Brent и West. Проведен эконометрический анализ взаимозависимости показателей текущего счета платежного баланса с перечисленными макроэкономическими показателями и остатками модели для формирования модели коррекции ошибок. Применяются и обобщаются новейшие методологические разработки в направлении современных исследований эконометрики. В результате выявлена степень зависимости эндогенных и экзогенных факторов, а также краткосрочная и долгосрочная взаимосвязь между зависимыми и независимыми факторами. Для проверки устойчивости AR модели применен тест «Корни характеристического полинома», вычислены обратные корни характеристического уравнения многочлена от оператора сдвига. Создана модель коррекции ошибок. Она помогает анализировать изменения текущего счета платежного баланса. На основе этой модели можно делать прогнозы на будущий период.

The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of GDP, investment, the national currency rate, the state budget deficit, indicators of the foreign trade sector, the level of foreign exchange reserves, and world prices for Brent and West oil on the dynamics of the current account of Azerbaijan’s balance of payments. An econometric analysis of the interdependence of the indicators of the current account of the balance of payments with the listed macroeconomic indicators and the residuals of the model was carried out to form an error correction model. The paper applies and summarizes the latest methodological developments in the direction of modern econometrics research. As a result, the degree of dependence of endogenous and exogenous factors was revealed, as well as the short-term and long-term relationship between dependent and independent factors. To check the stability of the AR model, the Roots of Characteristic Polynomial test was applied, and the inverse roots of the characteristic equation of the polynomial from the shift operator were calculated. An error correction model has been created, which makes it possible to conduct an economic and statistical analysis of the dynamics of the current account of the balance of payments and on the basis of which it is possible to give a forecast assessment for the future period.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.