financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2026-30-4-189-207finance-4564Research ArticleЦЕНООБРАЗОВАНИЕPRICINGУстойчивость цен на продовольствие в ответ на шоки фискальных, монетарных и природных факторов в ИндонезииThe Persistence of the Food Price Change in Response to Fiscal, Monetary, and Natural Factors’ Shocks in Indonesiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2365-1618ИндраджаяД.IndrajayaD.

Дананг Индраджая — преподаватель, Школа экономики и бизнеса

Бандунг

Danang Indrajaya — Lecturer, School of Economics and Business

Bandung

danangi@telkomuniversity.ac.idhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0913-6820СирегарХ.SiregarH.

Херманто Сирегар — PhD, профессор, экономический факультет

Богор

Hermanto Siregar — PhD, Prof., Department of Economics

Bogor

hermanto@mma.ipb.ac.idhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1980-0812ИраванТ.IrawanT.

Тони Ираван — преподаватель, экономический факультет

Богор

Tony Irawan — Lecturer, Department of Economics

Bogor

tonyirawan@ipb.ac.idhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8172-8276ШарифуддинФ.SyarifuddinF.

Ферри Шарифуддин — преподаватель Школы бизнеса; старший научный сотрудник

Богор

Джакарта

Ferry Syarifuddin — Lecturer, School of Business; Senior Researcher

Bogor

Jakarta

ferry.syarifuddin@gmail.comУниверситет ТелкомИндонезияSchool of Economics and Business, Telkom UniversityIndonesiaУниверситет ИПБИндонезияIPB UniversityIndonesiaУниверситет ИПБ; Банк ИндонезииРоссияIPB University; Bank IndonesiaRussian Federation202618082026304189207Copyright © Индраджая Д., Сирегар Х., Ираван Т., Шарифуддин Ф., 20262026Индраджая Д., Сирегар Х., Ираван Т., Шарифуддин Ф.Indrajaya D., Siregar H., Irawan T., Syarifuddin F.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/4564

Предметом исследования является динамика цен на продовольствие и их колебание под влиянием внутренних и внешних факторов. Оценивается влияние количества осадков, цен на топливо и процентных ставок на колебания цен на продовольствие, а также анализируется относительный вклад этих переменных. Цель исследования — оценить степень влияния внутренних (эндогенных) и внешних (экзогенных) факторов на колебания цен на продовольствие, определить относительную значимость каждого фактора и дать рекомендации по стабилизации цен на продовольствие. Используется метод векторной модели коррекции ошибок с экзогенными переменными (VECMX) для анализа динамической взаимосвязи между эндогенными переменными (продовольственной инфляцией) и экзогенными переменными (процентными ставками, количеством осадков и ценами на топливо). Актуальность исследования заключается в том, что оно позволяет понять, какие факторы влияют на динамику цен на продукты питания, что может послужить основой для разработки политики стабилизации цен на продовольствие. Результаты показали, что изменения цен на продовольствие сохраняются в течение длительного времени, если на них влияют факторы налогово-бюджетной политики, денежно-кредитной политики и природные факторы. В среднем для того, чтобы цены на продовольствие вернулись к естественному уровню (новому равновесию) после потрясения, требуется около 20–30 месяцев. На большинство колебаний цен на продовольствие (более 70%) влияют внутренние факторы. Через некоторое время влияние цен на топливо становится более значимым, чем влияние количества осадков, а влияние базовой процентной ставки — наименьшим.

The subject of the study is the dynamics of food prices and their variations influenced by internal and external factors. This study assesses the impact of rainfall, fuel prices, and interest rates on food price fluctuations and analyzes the relative contributions of these variables. This study aims to determine the extent to which internal (intrinsic) factors and external (exogenous) factors contribute to variations of food prices, determine the relative dominance of each factor, and provide policy recommendations to stabilize food prices. This study uses a method of the Vector Error Correction Model with exogenous variables (VECMX) to analyze the dynamic relationship between endogenous variables (food inflation) and exogenous variables, such as interest rates, rainfall, and fuel prices. The relevance of this study is to provide insight into the factors that influence the dynamics of food prices, which can be used as a basis for formulating a policy of food price stabilization. The results showed that the persistence of changes in food prices is relatively high if it is affected by shocks from fiscal policy factors, monetary policy, and natural factors. The average food price change takes about 20–30 months to return to its natural value (new equilibrium) after receiving a shock. Most variations in food prices (more than 70%) are influenced by internal factors. After a certain period, the impact of fuel prices becomes more dominant than rainfall and the benchmark interest rate has the least effect.

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