financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2026-30-5-215-234finance-4719Research ArticleЦИФРОВЫЕ ФИНАНСОВЫЕ АКТИВЫDIGITAL FINANCIAL ASSETSРоль биткоина в экономических потрясениях: тихая гавань или мираж?Bitcoin’s Role in Economic Turmoil: Safe Haven or Mirage?https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6755-6917КуандаД. Т.KuandaD. T.

Деви Тирта Куанда —  выпускница магистратуры факультета делового администрирования

Гаосюн

Dewi Tirta Kuanda —  MM and MBA, Department of Business Administration

Kaohsiung

dewitirtak@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7118-4092НуриевГ.NuryyevG.

Гайч Нуриев —  Dr., доцент кафедры делового администрирования

Гаосюн

Guych Nuryyev —  Dr., Assoc. Prof., Department of Business Administration

Kaohsiung

gnuriyev@isu.edu.twhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4480-9365НджоА.NjoA.

Анастасия Нджо —  Dr., профессор Школы бизнеса и менеджмента

Сурабая

Anastasia Njo —  Dr., Prof., School of Business & Management

Surabaya

anas@petra.ac.idУниверситет И-ШоуТайваньI-Shou UniversityTaiwan, Province of ChinaХристианский университет ПетраИндонезияPetra Christian UniversityIndonesia202615102026305215234Copyright © Куанда Д.Т., Нуриев Г., Нджо А., 20262026Куанда Д.Т., Нуриев Г., Нджо А.Kuanda D.T., Nuryyev G., Njo A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/4719

Данное исследование направлено на достижение трех конкретных исследовательских целей: (1) проанализировать взаимосвязь между биткоином и золотом, (2) оценить эффективность биткоина в качестве инструмента хеджирования рисков на фондовом рынке и (3) изучить влияние рыночных потрясений на взаимосвязь между биткоином и фондовым рынком. Использована модель обобщенной авторегрессионной условной гетероскедастичности (GARCH) для изучения взаимодействия между биткоином, золотом и фондовым рынком NASDAQ. При этом денежная масса рассматривается как контрольная переменная для оценки ее влияния на эти взаимосвязи. Результаты показывают, что биткоин не является инструментом хеджирования рисков на фондовом рынке, особенно на NASDAQ. Это опровергает гипотезу о его хеджирующих свойствах. Кроме того, установлено, что денежная масса не играет существенной роли в объяснении взаимосвязи между биткоином и фондовым рынком NASDAQ, а также между биткоином и золотом. Однако в периоды рыночных потрясений между биткоином и фондовым рынком NASDAQ наблюдается заметная корреляция, причем в таких условиях она усиливается. Это подтверждает гипотезу о влиянии рыночных потрясений. Несмотря на то, что биткоин называют «цифровым золотом», исследование не выявило статистически значимой взаимосвязи между биткоином и золотом, хотя оба актива демонстрируют схожие ценовые тренды.

This study investigates three specific research purposes: (1) to analyze the relationship between Bitcoin and gold, (2) to assess Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a hedge against the stock market, and (3) to explore the impact of market turmoil on the relationship between Bitcoin and the stock market. The study employs the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to examine interactions among Bitcoin, gold, and the NASDAQ stock market, with money supply as a control variable to assess its influence on these relationships. The results reveal that Bitcoin does not function as a hedge for stock market, particularly NASDAQ, thus refuting the hypothesis about its hedging capabilities. Additionally, the money supply variable is found to lack significant relevance in elucidating the connection between Bitcoin and both NASDAQ and gold. However, during periods of market turmoil, a notable correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ emerged, with stronger associations being observed under such conditions. This validates the hypothesis related to market turmoil. Despite its characterization as “digital gold”, the study found no statistically significant relationship between Bitcoin and gold, although both assets exhibited similar price trends.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.