financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federationfinance-560Research ArticleПУБЛИКАЦИИ МОЛОДЫХ УЧЕНЫХPUBLICATIONS OF YOUNG SCIENTISTSМОДЕЛИ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СПРОСА НА ИННОВАЦИОННУЮ ПРОДУКЦИЮMODELS FOR INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS DEMANDМаршалкинаТ. В.MarshalkinaT. V.

аспирант кафедры «Оценка и управление собственностью»,

руководитель отдела разработки мультимедийного контента

 

Post-graduate of Department of Assessment and Property Management,

Head of the department of multimedia content development

Tmarshalkina@gmail.comФинансовый университет; ООО «Центр разработки мультимедийных материалов», МоскваРоссияFinancial University; the “Center of multimedia materials development”, MoscowRussian Federation20152010201706171178Copyright © Маршалкина Т.В., 20172017Маршалкина Т.В.Marshalkina T.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/560

Значимость инноваций в современном мире трудно переоценить. Внедрение их в жизнь обычно проходит через инновационные проекты, включающие стадии исследований, разработок, производства и вывода на рынок. Как и любой другой коммерческий проект, инновационный проект должен быть экономически эффективным, в конечном счете окупиться и принести прибыль. Однако расчет потенциальной прибыли от инновационного продукта или услуги остается наиболее не изученной сферой в оценке инновационных проектов. Данный фактор делает особенно актуальной тему статьи, в которой рассматриваются различные подходы к оценке спроса на инновации в рамках оценки инновационных проектов. В статье изучается модель Басса для моделирования и прогнозирования распространения инновационных продуктов, а также процесс развития модели; приводятся аргументы в пользу S-вида кривой накопленного «принятия», т.е. покупки инновационного продукта; автором предлагаются модификации модели с добавлением в нее факторов цены, рекламы, рыночного потенциала; исследуются преимущества и недостатки различных методов определения параметров модели Басса. Делается вывод о практической применимости модели оценки спроса на инновации в оценке инновационных проектов. 

The importance of innovation nowadays can’t be overestimated. The introduction of innovations in usual life goes through the innovative projects, which are includes the stage of research, development, production and market realization. Like any other commercial project, the innovative project must be cost-effective in the long run to pay off and make a profit. However, the calculation of potential profits from an innovative product or service remains the most unexplored area in the innovative projects assessment. This factor makes the topic of this article particularly urgent. This article examines different approaches to assess the demand for innovation in the evaluation of innovative projects. The article provides arguments in favor of S-form of curve of innovative product adoption. Consistently discusses the stages of the model modification by adding the factors of price, advertising, market potential. Explores the advantages and disadvantages of different methods for determining Bass model parameters. It is concluded that model is practical applicable in the management of innovation projects. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.