financeФинансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and PracticeFinance: Theory and Practice2587-56712587-7089Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-2-17-30finance-836Research ArticleФИНАНСЫ И КРЕДИТFINANCE AND CREDITФакторы, определяющие динамику торгового кредита во время кризиса: панельный анализ данных для македонских компанийFactors Determining Trade Credit Dynamics During Crisis: Panel Data Analysis for Macedonian Firmshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0050-9793ДеариФ.DeariF.

Fitim Deari — PhD, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Business and Economics

f.deari@seeu.edu.mkhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1447-9377ЛакшинаВ. В.LakshinaV. V.

Валерия Владимировна Лакшина — магистр экономики, старший преподаватель, кафедра математической экономики

Valeriya V. Lakshina — MA in Economics, Senior Lecturer, Department of Mathematical Economics

vlakshina@hse.ruЮго-восточный европейский университет, ТетовоМакедонияSouth East European University, TetovoMacedonia, the former Yugoslav Republic ofНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», Нижний НовгородРоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics, Nizhny NovgorodRussian Federation2019030520192321730Copyright © Деари Ф., Лакшина В.В., 20192019Деари Ф., Лакшина В.В.Deari F., Lakshina V.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://financetp.fa.ru/jour/article/view/836

Цель исследования — определение факторов, влияющих на динамику коммерческих кредитов для двадцати трех фирм, зарегистрированных на Македонской фондовой бирже, а также проверка наличия кризисных эффектов в период с 2011 по 2015 г. Исследование включает в себя: обзор литературы, посвященной факторам коммерческого кредита; подробный анализ описательной статистики собранных данных и анализ дисперсии зависимой переменной; проведение тестов на наличие ненаблюдаемых эффектов и их функциональную форму; оценку панельной регрессии и интерпретацию результатов. В статье доказано, что показатель чистого коммерческого кредита для рассматриваемых фирм главным образом зависит от возможностей роста отстающих фирм и их уязвимости, а последствия кризиса для компаний значимы только для последнего фактора. Кроме этого, общая эффективность активов фирм и их способность конвертировать доходы в денежные средства не оказывают существенного влияния как в кризисный, так и в посткризисный периоды. Возможности роста и прибыльность демонстрируют негативное влияние, а это означает, что растущие и более прибыльные фирмы в среднем имеют тенденцию расширяться и получать больше торговых кредитов, чем контрагенты. Рентабельность оказывает существенное влияние на торговый кредит, и этот эффект ощутим в первый год после кризиса. Таким образом, динамика торговых кредитов македонских компаний, котирующихся на бирже, в значительной степени определяется внутренними факторами фирмы, а не внешней макроэкономической ситуацией. Поэтому для улучшения политики в области коммерческих кредитов рекомендуется совершенствование финансового управления. Одним из направлений дальнейших исследований является оценка авторегрессионной составляющей динамики коммерческих кредитов, а также включение пространственных эффектов в регрессионное уравнение.

The study is aimed at determining the factors influencing the trade credits dynamics for twenty three firms registered on the Macedonian Stock Exchange, as well as at checking for crisis effects from 2011 to 2015. The study includes a review of the literature on commercial credit factors; elaborately analyzed descriptive statistics of the collected data and dependent variable variance; tests for unobservable effects and their functional form; evaluation of panel regression and interpretation of the results. The authors have proved that net trade credits for these firms depends mainly on the growth potential of lagging firms and their vulnerability, and the crisis effects are significant only for the latter factor. Moreover, the overall efficiency of firms’ assets and their ability to convert income into cash does not have a significant impact in the crisis and post-crisis periods. The growth opportunities and profitability demonstrate a negative impact, meaning that growing and more profitable firms on average tend to expand and receive more trade credits than counterparties. Profitability has a significant impact on trade credit and the effect is seen during the first year after the crisis. Thus, the dynamics of trade credits of registered Macedonian firms is largely determined by the internal factors of a firm, and not by the external macroeconomic situation. Therefore, better financial management is suggested to improve the trade credit policy. One of the directions for further research is the evaluation of the autoregressive component of the trade credit dynamics, as well as including spatial effects in the regression equation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.