Post-Pandemic Scenarios of Economic Development of Developed Countries and Russia

Amid the Kondratiev cycle's downward slope movement and global pandemic, a recession in many countries is Likely to Lead to a deep long-term economic crisis. The aim of the article is to study the simplest recession indicators in developing and developed countries, economic-recovery measures, and economic development scenarios. The objectives of the paper are to study current economic situations in different countries, including Russia; identify measures to prevent a recession in developing and developed countries; evaluate possible economic development scenarios with regard to the cyclical dynamics in the current climate. The authors used methods of analysis, modelling, monitoring of major economic indicators based on the data of past recessions and other crises. The results of the research show different scenarios of economic growth depending on the number of Covid-19 cases and the effectiveness of government’s responses to the pandemic; a correlation between monetary and fiscal policies in overcoming crisis; monetary policy priorities necessary for economic recovery; problems and prospects of monetary and fiscal policy implementation. The authors concluded that GDP, unemployment, and inflation rate are key indicators for the evaluation of the current and future money, credit, and production-related events. Proactive measures ensure a smoother average economic growth. Both monetary and fiscal policy have advantages and disadvantages. Proactive measures, in particular, inevitably cause two time lags: in the reaction to a recession and in the effectiveness of implemented measures. The governments and central banks must be proactive in overcoming the economic recession and providing support to the citizens.

1. Sneader K., Singhal S. Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal. McKinsey & Company. Mar. 23, 2020. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/beyond-coronavirus-the-path-to-the-next-normal#

2. Craven M., Singhal S., Wilson M. COVID-19: Briefing note, April 13, 2020. McKinsey & Company. 2020. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Risk/Our%20Insights/COVID%2019%20Implications%20for%20business/COVID%2019%20April%2013/COVID-19-Briefing-note-April-13-2020.ashx

3. Isaifan R. J. The dramatic impact of Coronavirus outbreak on air quality: Has it saved as much as it has killed so far? Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management. 2020;6(3):275-288. DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2020.03.01

4. Liu O., Zheng Z., Zheng J. et al. Health communication through news media during the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: Digital topic modeling approach. Journal of Medical Internet Research. 2020;22(4): e19118. DOI: 10.2196/19118.

5. FitzGerald A., Kwiatkowski K., Singer V., Smit S. An instant economic crisis: How deep and how long? Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice. April 2020. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Strategy%20and%20Corporate%20Finance/Our%20Insights/An%20instant%20economic%20crisis%20How%20deep%20and%20how%20long/An-instant-economic-crisis-How-deep-and-how-long-FINAL.ashx (accessed on 10.05.2020).

6. Chernykh L. A. Strategy management of industrial enterprises in the context of reproductive cycles: The example of the Russian defense industry. Cand. econ. sci. diss. Synopsis. Penza: Penza State Univ.; 2013. 27 p. URL: https://www.dissercat.com/content/upravlenie-strategiei-promyshlennykh-predpriyatii-v-usloviyakh-vosproizvodstvennoi-tsiklichn (accessed on 19.05.2020). (In Russ.).

7. Cizkowicz P., Radzikowski B., Rzonca A., Wojciechowski W. Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU. Economic Modelling. 2020;88:59-81. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.010

8. Teterina D. Yu., Ryabova A. D. Monetary policy of the central banks of the world and Russia during the coronavirus pandemic. Nauka cherez prizmu vremeni. 2020;(5):105-109. (In Russ.).

9. Aleksandrova V. A. The impact of COVID-19 control measures on the global economy. E-Scio. 2020;(4):353-360. (In Russ.).

10. Baker S., Bloom N., Davis S. J., Terry S. J. COVID-induced economic uncertainty. Becker Friedman Institute White Paper. April 2020. URL: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Davis_4.2020.pdf (accessed on 15.05.2020).

11. Smit S., Hirt M., Dash P. et al. Crushing coronavirus uncertainty: The big ‘unlock’ for our economies. McKinsey & Company. May 13, 2020. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/crushing-coronavirus-uncertainty-the-big-unlock-for-our-economies

12. Marinova D. M., Anduiza E. When bad news is good news: Information acquisition in times of economic crisis. Political Behavior. 2020;42(2):465-486. DOI: 10.1007/s11109-018-9503-3

13. Esin P. A. Scenario of the global market development in the context of coronavirus crisis. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedenii. Prikladnaya nelineinaya dinamika = Izvestiya VUZ. Applied Nonlinear Dynamics. 2020;28(2):158-167. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18500/0869-6632-2020-28-2-158-167

14. Barthelemy S., Binet M.-E., Pentecote J.-S. Worldwide economic recoveries from financial crises through the decades. Journal of International Money and Finance. 2020;105:102204. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102204

15. Blueschke D., Neck R., Wittmann A. How relieving is public debt relief? Monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union during a debt crisis. Central European Journal of Operations Research. 2020;28(2):539-559. DOI: 10.1007/s10100-020-00677-7