Preview

Finance: Theory and Practice

Advanced search

Sentiment Analysis using Machine learning for forecasting Indian stock Trend: A brief Survey

https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-6-136-147

Abstract

Due to new technical advances, the machine can think as a person-investor and express its reaction to readily available financial information. Forecasting models for the Indian stock market can be developed based on the analysis of these sentiments. The purpose of the study is to identify gaps in existing approaches to the analysis of sentiments and models of forecasting trends in the Indian stock market, which can improve the accuracy of the prediction of the dynamics of Indian stocks. The paper presents an overview of the literature on the analysis of sentiments of financial information using lexical methods, machine learning methods and forecasting for the Indian stock market based on sentiment analysis data. The scientific works, conference reports, dissertations, books and articles published by scientists for the period from 2015 to 2021 are considered. The datasets published in Indian Stock Exchanges suggest increasing participation of retail investors in the Indian Stock market in recent times. To help investors in decisionmaking, various prediction models are available based on the financial information. The results of the survey showed that investors’ attitudes based on the microeconomic and macroeconomic information associated with stocks influence the movement of the stock price. Therefore, forecasting a future trend or price requires a sentiments analysis based on available financial information. It was concluded that using machine learning to extract sentiment from financial data allows for more accurate forecasts than sentiment analysis based on vocabulary. The results of this study can be useful for students and new professionals in the field of financial information data analysis and stock market predictions who want to get connected with this area, identify problem concerns, and develop models for predicting decision-making.

About the Authors

A.S. Dash
MIT College of Management, MIT Art, Design & Technology University
India

Anupa S. Dash — PhD Scholar 

Pune 


Competing Interests:

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare 



U. Mishra
MIT College of Management, MIT Art, Design & Technology University
India

Ujjwal Mishra — PhD, Prof. of Finance, academician 

Pune 


Competing Interests:

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare 



References

1. Edwards R. D., Magee J., Bassetti W. H.C. Technical analysis of stock trends. New York, NY: AMACOM, a division of American Management Association; 2007. 840 p.

2. Nicholson C. Building wealth in the stock market: A proven investment plan for finding the best stocks and managing risk. Milton, Qld: John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd; 2009. 352 p.

3. Thomsett M. C. Practical trend analysis: Applying signals and indicators to improve trade timing. Boston, MA: Walter de Gruyter Inc.; 2019. 350 p.

4. Fama E. F. The behavior of stock-market prices. The Journal of Business. 1965;38(1):34–105. DOI: 10.1086/294743

5. Nagpal A., Jain M. Efficient market hypothesis in Indian stock markets: A re-examination of calendar anomalies. Amity Global Business Review. 2018;13(1):32–41.

6. Black F. Noise. The Journal of Finance. 1986;41(3):528–543. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540–6261.1986.tb04513.x

7. De Long J.B., Shleifer A., Summers L.H., Waldmann R.J. Noise trader risk in financial markets. Journal of Political Economy. 1990;98(4):703–738. URL: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/noise_trader_risk.pdf

8. Baker M., Wurgler J. Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance. 2006;61(4):1645–1680. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540–6261.2006.00885.x

9. Baker M., Wurgler J. Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2007;21(2):129–151. DOI: 10.1257/jep.21.2.129

10. Kumari J., Mahakud J. Does investor sentiment predict the asset volatility? Evidence from emerging stock market India. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance. 2015;8:25–39. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2015.10.001

11. Kumari J., Mahakud J. Investor sentiment and stock market volatility: Evidence from India. Journal of Asia-Pacific Business. 2016;17(2):173–202. DOI: 10.1080/10599231.2016.1166024

12. Pang B., Lee L. Opinion mining and sentiment analysis. Foundations and Trends in Information Retrieval. 2008;2(1–2):1–90. URL: https://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/llee/omsa/omsa.pdf

13. Misra P. An investigation of the macroeconomic factors affecting the Indian stock market. Australasian Accounting Business & Finance Journal. 2018;12(2):71–86. DOI: 10.14453/aabfj.v12i2.5

14. Kumar P., Gupta S. K., Sharma R. K. An empirical analysis of the relationship between FPI and Nifty returns. IUP Journal of Applied Economics. 2017;16(3):7–24.

15. Mann B. J.S., Babbar S. Stock price reaction around new product announcements: An event study. IUP Journal of Management Research. 2017;16(3):46–57.

16. Heston S. L., Sinha N. R. News vs. sentiment: Predicting stock returns from news stories. Financial Analysts Journal. 2017;73(3):67–83. DOI: 10.2469/faj.v73.n3.3

17. Allen D. E., McAleer M., Singh A. K. Daily market news sentiment and stock prices. Applied Economics. 2019;51(30):3212–3235. DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1564115

18. Johnman M., Vanstone B. J., Gepp A. Predicting FTSE 100 returns and volatility using sentiment analysis. Accounting & Finance. 2018;58(S 1):253–274. DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12373

19. Chan S. W.K., Chong M. W.C. Sentiment analysis in financial texts. Decision Support Systems. 2017;94:53–64. DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2016.10.006

20. Uhl M. W. Emotions matter: Sentiment and momentum in foreign exchange. Journal of Behavioural Finance. 2017;18(3):249–257. DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2017.1332061

21. Rani S., Singh J. Sentiment analysis: A survey. International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology. 2017;5(8)1957–1963. DOI: 10.22214/ijraset.2017.8276

22. Xing F. Z., Cambria E., Welsch R. E. Natural language based financial forecasting: A survey. Artificial Intelligence Review. 2018;50(1):49–73. DOI: 10.1007/s10462–017–9588–9

23. Yadav R., Kumar A., Kumar A. V. Event-based sentiment analysis on futures trading. The Journal of Prediction Markets. 2019;13(1):57–81. DOI: 10.5750/jpm.v13i1.1731

24. Shehu H. A., Tokat S., Sharif H., Uyaver S. Sentiment analysis of Turkish Twitter data. AIP Conference Proceedings. 2019;2183:080004. DOI: 10.1063/1.5136197

25. Alpaydin E. Introduction to machine learning. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press; 2014. 537 p.

26. Carvalho A. Harris L. Off-the-shelf technologies for sentiment analysis of social media data: Two empirical studies. In: Americas conf. on information systems (AMCIS 2020). (August 15–17, 2020). Atlanta, GA: Association for Information Systems. 2020. URL: https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2020/social_computing/social_computing/6

27. de las Heras-Pedrosa C., Sánchez-Núñez P., Peláez J. I. Sentiment analysis and emotion understanding during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain and its impact on digital ecosystems. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020;17(15):5542. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17155542

28. Carvalho A., Xu J. Studies on the accuracy of ensembles of cloud-based technologies for sentiment analysis. In: Americas conf. on information systems (AMCIS 2021). (August 9–13, 2021). Atlanta, GA: Association for Information Systems. 2021:1462. URL: https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2021/art_intel_sem_tech_intelligent_systems/art_intel_sem_tech_intelligent_systems/12

29. Ince H., Trafalis T. B. A hybrid forecasting model for stock market prediction. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research. 2017;51(3):263–280. URL: http://www.eadr.ro/RePEc/cys/ecocyb_pdf/ecocyb3_2017p263–280.pdf

30. Cocianu C. L., Grigoryan H. Machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. A case study of Omv Petrom. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research. 2016;50(3):63–82. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308719462_Machine_learning_techniques_for_stock_market_prediction_Acase_study_of_OMV_Petrom

31. Moghaddam A. H., Moghaddam M. H., Esfandyari M. Stock market index prediction using artificial neural network. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science. 2016;21(41):89–93. DOI: 10.1016/j.jefas.2016.07.002

32. K.-S., Kim H. Performance of deep learning in prediction of stock market volatility. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research . 2019 ; 53 (2) : 77– 92 . DOI :10.24818/18423264/53.2.19.05

33. Obthong M., Tantisantiwong N., Jeamwatthanachai W., Wills G. A survey on machine learning for stock price prediction: Algorithms and techniques. In: Proc. 2nd Int. conf. on finance, economics, management and IT business (FEMIB 2020). Vol. 1. Setúbal: Science and Technology Publications (SciTePress); 2020:63–71. DOI: 10.5220/0009340700630071

34. Rich H., Scott D., Franck B. Evaluating predictability of financial markets using New York Times sentiments and market data. 2017. URL: https://github.com/IBM/powerai-market-sentiment#readme

35. Wu G. G.-R., Hou T. C.-T., Lin J.-L. Can economic news predict Taiwan stock market returns? Asia Pacific Management Review. 2019;24(1):54–59. DOI: 10.1016/j.apmrv.2018.01.003

36. Rani N., Kaushal A., Shakir M. B. Social media and sentiment analysis of Nifty 50 Index. Journal of Prediction Markets. 2019;13(1):50–56. DOI: 10.5750/jpm.v13i1.1710


Review

For citations:


Dash A., Mishra U. Sentiment Analysis using Machine learning for forecasting Indian stock Trend: A brief Survey. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2023;27(6):136-147. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-6-136-147

Views: 12360


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2587-5671 (Print)
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)