Экономический рост через потоки ренты, финансовое развитие и качество институтов в странах БВСА

В данном исследовании рассматриваются взаимосвязи между потоками природной ренты, финансовым развитием, качеством институтов и экономическим ростом в регионе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки (БВСА) на основе панельных моделей с фиксированными эффектами в период 1990–2020 гг. Анализ региона БВСА проливает свет на сложную, динамичную природу экономики и общества региона, поскольку этот регион представляет собой интересный пример, где экономическая, политическая и культурная динамика многообразна. Регион сталкивается с потребностями диверсификации экономики, конфликтами, миграцией и изменением климата, что делает данное исследование своевременным и актуальным. Для этого к собранным панельным данным были применены регрессии с фиксированными эффектами и сценарные подходы. Полученные данные свидетельствуют о том, что рента от природных ресурсов является основным фактором экономического роста, а ее эффективность зависит от уровня финансового развития и качества институтов. Развитый финансовый сектор способствует эффективному направлению ренты в продуктивные инвестиции, а сильные институты смягчают эффект от «ресурсного проклятия». Напротив, денежные переводы и иностранная помощь не оказывают прямого влияния на рост, однако их эффективность повышается благодаря финансовому развитию и институциональной базе. Полученные результаты подчеркивают важнейшую роль развития финансового сектора, качества институтов и надежного управления в формировании воздействия ресурсной ренты в этом богатом ресурсами регионе. В политических рекомендациях подчеркиваются стратегии управления ресурсным богатством, укрепления финансовых систем, поощрения инклюзивности, совершенствования институтов и создания благоприятных условий для денежных переводов и иностранной помощи в целях обеспечения устойчивого экономического роста.

1. Hein E. “Financialization”, distribution, capital accumulation, and productivity growth in a post-Kaleckian model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. 2012;34(3):475–496. DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477340305

2. Birch K. Technoscience rent: Toward a theory of rentiership for technoscientific capitalism. Science, Technology, Human Values. 2020;45(1):3–33. DOI: 10.1177/0162243919829567

3. Andreoni A., Chang H.-J. The political economy of industrial policy: Structural interdependencies, policy alignment and conflict management. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 2019;48:136–150. DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2018.10.007

4. Warnecke-Berger H. Rents, the moral economy of remittances, and the rise of a new transnational development model. Revue de la régulation: Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs. 2021;31:1–24. DOI: 10.4000/regulation.20809

5. Auty R. M., Furlonge H. I. The rent curse: Natural resources, policy choice, and economic development. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2019. 276 p. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198828860.001.0001

6. Warnecke-Berger H. Remittances, the rescaling of social conflicts, and the stasis of elite rule in El Salvador. Latin American Perspectives. 2020;47(3):202–220. DOI: 10.1177/0094582X19898502

7. Behzadan N. Essays on the Dutch disease. Ph.D. thesis. Toronto, ON: Ryerson University; 2019. 116 p. URL: https://scholar.archive.org/work/6qvsfuujybhvvl22sczjiyp5lu/access/wayback/https://s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/pstorage-ryerson-5010877717/28123902/Behzadan_Nazanin.pdf

8. Chisik R., Behzadan N. The paradox of transfers: Distribution and the Dutch disease. Department of Economics, Ryerson University. Working Paper. 2024;(89). URL: https://chisik.weebly.com/uploads/1/3/5/3/135397809/wp089.pdf

9. De Haas H. The migration and development pendulum: A critical view on research and policy. International Migration. 2012;50(3):8–25. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468–2435.2012.00755.x

10. Warnecke-Berger H. The spatial turn and economics: Migration, remittances, and transnational economic space. In: Middel M., Marung S., eds. Spatial formats under the global condition. Oldenbourg: De Gruyter; 2019:360–378. (Dialectics of the Global. Vol. 1). DOI: 10.1515/9783110643008–014

11. Ponsot F., Vásquez B., Terry D., de Vasconcelos P. Sending money home: Contributing to the SDGs, one family at a time. Rome: International Fund for Agricultural Development; 2017. 55 p. URL: https://www.ifad.org/documents/38714170/40187440/sending-money-home_e.pdf/7601a70c-68f0-3637-2517-da0f77506aa8?t=1707298178938

12. Radić M. N., Bogdan S., Beloglavec S. T. The significance of remittance in fostering economic growth: A bibliometric and systematic literature review. Intelektinė ekonomika — Intellectual Economics. 2023;17(1):206–231. DOI: 10.13165/IE-23–17–1–10

13. Ratha D. Leveraging migration, remittances and diaspora for financing sustainable development. Technical report. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2015.

14. Easterly W. Can foreign aid buy growth? Journal of economic Perspectives. 2003;17(3):23–48. DOI: 10.1257/089533003769204344

15. Warnecke-Berger H. Politics and violence in Central America and the Caribbean. London, New York: Palgrave Macmillan; 2018. 292 p.

16. Auty R. M. Determinants of state mining enterprise resilience in Latin America. Natural Resources Forum. 1993;17(1):3–14. DOI: 10.1111/j.1477–8947.1993.tb00156.x

17. Sachs J. D., Warner A., Åslund A., Fischer S. Economic reform and the process of global integration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 1995;26(1):1–118. DOI: 10.2307/2534573

18. Mahdavy H., Cook M. A. The patterns and problems of economic development in rentier states: The case of Iran. In: Cook M. A., ed. Studies in economic history of the Middle East. London: Oxford University Press; 1970:428–467.

19. Beblawi H. G., Luciani G., eds. The rentier state. London: Routledge; 1987. 252 p. DOI: 10.4324/9781315684864

20. Redmond T., Nasir M. A. Role of natural resource abundance, international trade and financial development in the economic development of selected countries. Resources Policy. 2020;66:101591. DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101591

21. Gerelmaa L., Kotani K. Further investigation of natural resources and economic growth: Do natural resources depress economic growth? Resources Policy. 2016;50:312–321. DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.10.004

22. Dwumfour R. A., Ntow-Gyamfi M. Natural resources, financial development and institutional quality in Africa: Is there a resource curse? Resources Policy. 2018;59:411–426. DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.08.012

23. Law S. H., Moradbeigi M. Financial development and oil resource abundance–growth relations: Evidence from panel data. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2017;24(28):22458–22475. DOI: 10.1007/s11356–017–9871-y

24. Nili M., Rastad M. Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 2007;46(5):726–740. DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2006.08.007

25. Mlachila M., Ouedraogo R. Financial development curse in resource-rich countries: The role of commodity price shocks. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 2020;76:84–96. DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2019.04.011

26. Nawaz K., Lahiani A., Roubaud D. Natural resources as blessings and finance-growth nexus: A bootstrap ARDL approach in an emerging economy. Resources Policy. 2019;60:277–287. DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.01.007

27. Cooray A. The impact of migrant remittances on economic growth: Evidence from South Asia. Review of International Economics. 2012;20(5):985–998. DOI: 10.1111/roie.12008

28. Driffield N., Jones C. Impact of FDI, ODA and migrant remittances on economic growth in developing countries: A systems approach. The European Journal of Development Research. 2013;25(2):173–196. DOI: 10.1057/ejdr.2013.1

29. Lartey E. K. K. Remittances, investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development. 2013;22(7):1038–1058. DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2011.632692

30. Raimi L., Ogunjirin O. D. Fast-tracking sustainable economic growth and development in Nigeria through international migration and remittances. Humanomics. 2012;28(3):209–219. DOI: 10.1108/08288661211258101

31. Nwosa P. I., Akinbobola T. O. Capital inflows and economic growth in Nigeria: The role of macroeconomic policies. African Development Review. 2016;28(3):277–290. DOI: 10.1111/1467–8268.12205

32. Feeny S., Iamsiraroj S., McGillivray M. Remittances and economic growth: Larger impacts in smaller countries? The Journal of Development Studies. 2014;50(8):1055–1066. DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2014.895815

33. Ratha D. Workers’ remittances: An important and stable source of external development finance. In: Maimbo S. M., Ratha D., eds. Remittances: Development impact and future prospects. Washington, DC: The World Bank; 2005:19–52 p. URL: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/435901468139206629/pdf/32598a.pdf

34. Smyth A. Challenging the financialization of remittances agenda through indigenous women’s practices in Oaxaca. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space. 2022;54(4):761–778. DOI: 10.1177/0308518X20977186

35. Kunz R., Maisenbacher J., Paudel L. N. Remittances, development and financialisation beyond the Global North. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space. 2022;54(4):693–701. DOI: 0.1177/0308518X221088867

36. Bakker M. Migrating into financial markets: How remittances became a development tool. Oakland, CA: University of California Press; 2015. 292 p. DOI: 10.1525/luminos.5

37. Bird G., Choi Y. The effects of remittances, foreign direct investment, and foreign aid on economic growth: An empirical analysis. Review of Development Economics. 2020;24(1):1–30. DOI: 10.1111/rode.12630

38. Herger N., Hodler R., Lobsiger M. What determines financial development? Culture, institutions or trade. Review of World Economics. 2008;144(3):558–587. DOI: 10.1007/s10290–008–0160–1

39. Alvi E., Mukherjee D., Shukralla E. Foreign aid, growth, policy and reform. Economics Bulletin. 2008;15(6):1–9. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4826052_Foreign_aid_growth_policy_and_reform

40. Fielding D., Mavrotas G. Aid volatility and donor-recipient characteristics in ‘difficult partnership countries’. Economica. 2008;75(299):481–494. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468–0335.2007.00621.x

41. Knack S. Aid dependence and the quality of governance: Cross-country empirical tests. Southern Economic Journal. 2001;68(2):310–329. DOI: 10.1002/j.2325–8012.2001.tb00421.x

42. Angrist J. D., Pischke J.-S. Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 2009. 392 p. DOI: 10.1515/9781400829828

43. Imai K., Kim I. S. When should we use unit fixed effects regression models for causal inference with longitudinal data? American Journal of Political Science. 2019;63(2):467–490. DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12417

44. Imai K., Kim I. S. On the use of two-way fixed effects regression models for causal inference with panel data. Political Analysis. 2021;29(3):405–415. DOI: 10.1017/pan.2020.33

45. Hill T. D., Davis A. P., Roos J. M., French M. T. Limitations of fixed-effects models for panel data. Sociological Perspectives. 2020;63(3):357–369. DOI: 10.1177/0731121419863785

46. Dawson J. F., Richter A. W. Probing three-way interactions in moderated multiple regression: Development and application of a slope difference test. Journal of Applied Psychology. 2006;91(4):917–926. DOI: 10.1037/0021–9010.91.4.917

47. Kang H., Martinez-Vazquez J. When does foreign direct investment lead to inclusive growth? The World Economy. 2022;45(8):2394–2427. DOI: 10.1111/twec.13236

48. Karras G. Foreign aid and long-run economic growth: Empirical evidence for a panel of developing countries. Journal of International Development. 2006;18(1):15–28. DOI: 10.1002/jid.1187