Structural Analysis of Economic Growth: The Distributed Effects of Policy Instruments

The article examines the structure of the growth of the Russian economy in the period 2003–2023. The macroeconomic policy proceeds from linking the instrument to a specific development goal, although in practice the entire set of tools affects the target parameters and economic structure, thereby generating opportunities for its contribution to the rate of economic growth and reduction of inflation. The purpose of the research is to conduct a structural analysis of Russia’s economic growth with the allocation of the distributed impact on the growth rate, inflation and economic structure (by GDP) of the following main macroeconomic policy instruments: the key interest rate, monetization level, exchange rate and budget surplus/deficit. The research methodology is represented by the theory of economic growth, structural analysis, regression models, econometric approach, and statistical data processing. The information base of the study was compiled from Rosstat and the World Bank. The result is a constructed algorithm for structural analysis of growth with an assessment of the distributed impact of policy instruments and an empirical study of the Russian economy, which confirmed the different strengths of the influence of applied policy instruments not only on growth and inflation, but also on the economic structure (raw materials, processing and transaction sectors), as well as the different effects of structural elements on price dynamics and GDP, shaped by the ongoing macroeconomic policy. Such a result in the long term leads to the need to correct the instruments used in terms of the strength and nature of their action, and also allows us to take into account the formulation of structural change tasks together with the macroeconomic policy measures being formed aimed at ensuring the growth rate at relatively low price dynamics.

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