Developing a Three-Statement Financial Model for Regional Airlines: A Case Study of Structured Hierarchical Financial Model with Automated Investment Schedule and Provisioning Features

The subject of study in the paper is the analysis of financial effects associated with the performance of regional airline projects from their launch to maturity, with the goal being the development of financial modeling tools to achieve the most thorough incorporation of such effects in the study context. Financial models as functional aids in optimal route planning for regional airlines have an under-explored potential, making the subject of study especially topical. The research methods utilized by the authors in the study are сash flow-based and accounting indicator-based investment project appraisal methods. These methods rely on integrated (three-statement) nominal financial modeling protocols developed at a monthly frequency and tailored for compliance with the Federal Aviation Guidelines. The resulting model provides and reconciles the derivation of free cash flows on the invested capital (FCFF) and free cash flows to equity (FCFE) under both the direct and indirect methods of cash flow derivation, thereby helping estimate the performance and efficiency of the aviation projects in a comprehensive way. It also incorporates some advanced features, such as accounting for aviation subsidies, provisioning for the overhauls of Airframes and Engines, compliance with the national Tax code and Federal Aviation Guidelines, as well as the treatment of initial Tax Loss Carryforwards. The findings of the model afford a conclusion that financial support measures in the form of existing regional airline subsidies in Russia may just about ensure a minimum acceptable rate of return on capital invested in regional airline projects. The practical significance of the model for regional airlines is in allowing them to support their business planning processes while seeking licenses, flight and subsidy approvals from Aviation Authorities, as well as actually optimize their long-term route maps and schedules with an eye to key financial parameters (e. g. ROE or NPV). In terms of research novelty, the financial model innovates algorithms to endogenize and automate the timing of repair and overhaul flags for the aircraft fleet in the context of investment depreciation and maintenance schedules.

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