Short-Term Forecasting and Investment in Russian Oil and Gas Companies Taking into Account Benchmark Markers

The Russian oil and gas complex is closely integrated with global financial markets and has been building trade and logistics links with foreign trade partners throughout the 21st century, as the main flow of produced hydrocarbons and their derivatives is exported. The oil and gas complex plays a key role in generating state budget revenues, replenishing the country’s foreign exchange reserves and ensuring the country’s balance of payments. As of 2024, the share of the oil and gas complex in the structure of the Russian stock market is 45%, and the market price of equity capital reaches 50% of the capitalization of the Russian securities market. Despite the economic shocks caused by the consequences of the pandemic, special military operations, large-scale sanctions restrictions, and military and political conflicts in the Middle East, the Russian oil and gas complex is a steadily growing industry with high macroeconomic indicators. Also, the investment potential of Russian oil and gas companies is revealed in their ability to provide not only the safety of savings, but also significant financial benefits from rising share prices and attractive dividend income under the strict monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and high inflation. The presence of risks, volatility of quotations together with other factors create uncertainty for investors on the stock market. It is difficult and, in some cases, impossible to determine to what extent one or another parameter influences the change of derivative price. As a consequence, the main purpose of the article is to create statistically significant models for analysing and investing in securities of oil and gas companies, taking into account benchmark markers, to form a relevant investment portfolio in the Russian oil and gas market in the current turbulent conditions. The results of the scientific research reflect the obtained multifactor regression equations and relevant investment portfolio of securities of oil and gas gas companies in Russia.

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