Preview

Finance: Theory and Practice

Advanced search

The Impact of the Dynamics and Structure of Government Spending on the Economic Growth of the Russian Federation in the Sectoral Context

https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2025-29-6-6-17

Abstract

The subject of the study is to assess the impact of government spending on the economic growth in the Russian Federation from a sectoral perspective.

The purpose of the study is to identify the parameters that cause changes in government spending and their impact on economic development in Russia.

The methodological basis of this work is the economic, statistical and analytical methods of information processing.

The objectives of the study are: to substantiate the term «geopolitical occurrence» and to identify the most significant occurrences related to the Russian Federation, which have affected government spending; to analyze changes in the composition of federal budget expenditures in Russia; to examine the dynamics of gross value added in various sectors of the Russian economy.

As a result, the accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation, the COVID‑19 pandemic, and the Special Military Operation have been among the geopolitical events. The calculations show significant differences in the structure of government spending and economic growth between various geopolitical occurrences.

The conclusion is that the entire structure of the federal budget is undergoing changes related to government spending, and structurally this directly corresponds to the nature of geopolitical events. At the same time, changes in the volume and structure of government spending can significantly affect the dynamics of gross value added in certain sectors of the economy if they are aimed at supporting businesses in the real economy. However, this effect is limited to a certain range of sectors.

About the Authors

A. I. Egorova
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation

Angelina I. Egorova – Junior Researcher, Deputy Director for International Development

Moscow


Competing Interests:

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.



N. S. Leonenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation

Nikita S. Leonenko – Postgraduate Student, Faculty of Economics

Moscow


Competing Interests:

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.



References

1. Kovaleva E. A. Military-industrial complex of Russian under economic sanctions. In: Proc. Int. sci.-pract. conf. “Transformation of management systems: New tasks and horizons” (Kursk, April 27, 2023). Kursk: Kursk State University; 2023:71–75. (In Russ.).

2. Nikolaev I. A. Drivers of economic growth: Opportunities and prospects in the sub-sanctioned economy of Russia. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiiskoi akademii nauk = Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2023;(1):58–74. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2023_1_58_74

3. Korovkin V., Makarin A. Conflict and intergroup trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis. American Economic Review. 2023;113(1):34–70. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191701

4. Fedotova M. A., Pogodina T. V., Karpova S. V. Assessment of trends and prospects for the development of the Russian economy in the context of sanctions pressure. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2025;29(1):6–19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2025-29-1-6-19

5. Komleva N. A. The geopolitical consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Bol’shaya Evraziya: razvitie, bezopasnost’, sotrudnichestvo = Greater Eurasia: Development, Security, Cooperation. 2020;(3–2):98–100. (In Russ.).

6. Chupilkin M., Kóczán Z. The economic consequences of war: Estimates using synthetic controls. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Working Paper. 2022(271). URL: https://www.ebrd.com/content/dam/ebrd_dxp/assets/pdfs/office-of-the-chief-economist/working-papers/working-papers-2022/WP-271.pdf (accessed on 28.05.2025).

7. Federle J., et al. The price of war. Kiel Working Paper. 2024;(2262). URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/283893/1/1881532291.pdf (accessed on 31.05.2025).

8. De Groot O. J., et al. The global economic burden of violent conflict. Journal of Peace Research. 2022;59(2):259–276. DOI: 10.1177/00223433211046823

9. Ilzetzki E. Learning by necessity: Government demand, capacity constraints, and productivity growth. American Economic Review. 2024;114(8):2436–2471. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230033

10. Barcellos J. M.V.B. The military-industrial complex and its foundations: geopolitics, development, and technological advance. Coleção Meira Mattos. 2022;16(56):327–351. DOI: 10.52781/cmm.a076

11. Linnikov A. S. The impact of international sanctions on activities of foreign companies in Russia. Vestnik Finansovogo universiteta = Bulletin of the Financial University. 2017;21(3):141–148. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.26794/2587–5671–2017–21–3–141–148

12. Clements B., Gupta S., Khamidova S. Military spending in the post-pandemic era. Finansy & razvitie = Finance & Development. 2021(June):58–61. URL: https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Fandd/Article/2021/June/RU/clements-ru.ashx (accessed on 31.05.2025).

13. Fedorova E. A., Gubanov A. A. Effectiveness of public-private partnership projects during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(3)6–18. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-3-6-18

14. Egorova Yu.V., Nepp A. A., Tishchenko I. I. Evolution of COVID-19 impact on Russian stock market: Panic effect. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(2):192–205. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-2-192-205

15. Romer C. D. The fiscal policy response to the pandemic. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2021;(Spring):89–110. DOI: 10.1353/eca.2021.0009

16. Polyakova O. A., Alandarov R. A. Budgetary policy of the Russian Federation in conditions of economic uncertainty. Vestnik Finansovogo universiteta = Bulletin of the Financial University. 2015;(5):6–12. (In Russ.).

17. Glazyev S. Yu. Potential opportunities for the growth of the Russian economy and the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2018;11(5):30–48. (In Russ.: Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz. 2018;11(5):30–48. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2018.5.59.2).

18. Cevik S., Miryugin F. It’s never different: Fiscal policy shocks and inflation. Comparative Economic Studies. 2025;67(1):186–220. DOI: 10.1057/s41294-024-00238-w

19. Khan N. Does inflation targeting really promote economic growth? Review of Political Economy. 2022;34(3):564–584. DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2021.1902165

20. Pollin R., Bouazza H. Considerations on inflation, economic growth, and the 2 per cent inflation target. Review of Keynesian Economics. 2024;12(4):453–474. DOI: 10.4337/roke.2024.0006

21. Byvshev V. A., Meshkova E. I. Banking sector lending activity stimulation to promote economic growth. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(6):49–58. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-6-49-58

22. Glazyev S. Yu., Sukharev O. S., Afanasyeva O. N. Monetary policy in Russia: Negative cumulative effect in the framework of the neoclassical model and its overcoming. Mikroekonomika = Microeconomics. 2022;(2):5–38. (In Russ.). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33917/mic-2.103.2022.5–38

23. Glazyev S. Yu., Sukharev O. S. Economic growth and monetary policy in Russia. Journal of New Economy. 2025;26(1):6–30. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.29141/2658–5081-2025-26-1-1

24. Pestova A. A., Rostova N. A. Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us? Voprosy ekonomiki. 2020;(4):31–53. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2020-4-31-53

25. Ryazantsev S. V., Rybakovsky L. L. Demographic development of Russia in the XX–XXI centuries: Historical and geopolitical dimensions. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk = Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021;91(9):810–819. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869587321090085

26. Varfolomeeva E. V., Turkulets A. V. Problematic aspects of pension reform in the Russian Federation. In: Legal reality in the context of digitalization of society. Proc. All-Russ. sci.-pract. conf. (Khabarovsk-Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, November 09–11, 2023). Khabarovsk: Far Eastern State Transportation University; 2023:131–136. URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_54770488_24518105.pdf (accessed on 02.06.2025). (In Russ.).

27. Kashepov A. V. Pension reform: Preliminary results and assessment of their impact on the economic situation of older age groups of the population. Sotsial’no-trudovye issledovaniya = Social & Labour Research. 2023;(3):56–67. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34022/2658-3712-2023-52-3-56-67

28. Belousov D. Notebook 1. How the economy developed in 2023 and early 2024. Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). 2024. URL: http://www.forecast.ru/_ARCHIVE/Mon_13/2024/TT1_2024.pdf (accessed on 16.06.2025). (In Russ.).


Review

For citations:


Egorova A.I., Leonenko N.S. The Impact of the Dynamics and Structure of Government Spending on the Economic Growth of the Russian Federation in the Sectoral Context. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2025;29(6):6-17. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2025-29-6-6-17

Views: 95


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2587-5671 (Print)
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)