Влияние государственных облигаций на частный сектор: доказательства на примере растущей экономики

   Частый выпуск правительством государственных облигаций или ценных бумаг на фондовом рынке вытесняет частный сектор в развивающихся странах. Основная проблема заключается в том, сможет ли экономика продолжать нормально функционировать в условиях такого явления, если его не контролировать. Для подтверждения этого сценария мы применяем коинтеграционный подход с авторегрессионным распределенным лагом (ARDL), используя данные Индикатора мирового развития и Центрального банка Нигерии за период с 1989 по 2021 гг. Результаты анализа свидетельствуют о том, что снижение стоимости заимствований не приведет к нагрузке на частный сектор. Однако текущие государственные заимствования внутри страны не оказывают существенного положительного влияния, подтверждая, что если правительство не сократит объем ценных бумаг на фондовом рынке, то инвесторы будут продолжать инвестировать в государственные облигации, игнорируя корпоративные. Этот вывод означает, что экономика не будет находиться в состоянии паритета, поскольку инвестиции частного сектора будут подавлены. В соответствии с результатами исследования правительство должно поощрять деятельность частного сектора путем снижения процентных ставок и регулирования лимитов заимствований, с тем чтобы они не превышали порог, благоприятный как для экономики, так и для операций частного сектора.

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