Assessment of Trends and Prospects for the Development of the Russian Economy in the Context of sanctions Pressure

Improving the competitiveness of the national economy is one of the priorities of the socio-economic policy of the Russian Federation. In this regard, the identification of factors for increasing competitiveness is highly relevant for achieving the goals of sustainable development. In this paper, attention is paid to updating the problem posed and assessing the degree of influence of investment, technological, industrial, labor, social and financial factors on increasing Russia’s share in global GDP. The purpose of this study is to systematize the factors and identify promising areas for improving Russia’s competitiveness in the global economy. The object of the study is the development of the Russian Federation in 2014-2023 and for the future until 2026, and the subject is the study of factors and an assessment of their impact on improving the competitiveness of the national economy. Economic, mathematical and statistical methods were used as research methods. In particular, trend, correlation, regression, and comparative analysis have found practical application. As the main results of the study, it is necessary to highlight the justification of the influence of factors on increasing the competitiveness of the Russian economy; rank the influence of investment, technological, industrial, labor, social and financial factors on increasing Russia’s share in world GDP; determine the forecast values of Russia’s share in world GDP

based on the construction of the trend equation; identify the degree of influence of factors on the competitiveness of the national economy based on the calculation of correlation coefficients; and analyze the best practices of Russian raw materials companies in achieving world-class competitiveness.

1. Ivanter V.V. Mechanisms of economic growth. Mir novoi ekonomiki = The World of New Economy. 2018;12(3):24-35. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2018-12-3-24-35

2. Kleiner G.B. A system reboot of the Russian economy: Key directions and prospects. Nauchnye trudy Vol’nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii = Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia. 2020;223(3):111-122. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.38197/2072-2060-2020-223-3-111-122

3. Karpova S.V., Pogodina T.V. Financial and economic behavior of consumers and its impact on the achievement of sustainable development goals in Russia. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(1):109-121. DOI: 10.26794/2587- 5671-2024-28-1-109-121

4. Gospodarchuk G.G., Aistov A.V., Suchkova E.O. Relationship between business models of banks and stability of economic development. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2023;27(2):108-118. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-2-108-118

5. Safiullin M.R., Yelshin L.A. Sanctions pressure on the Russian economy: Ways to overcome the costs and benefits of confrontation within the framework of import substitution. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2023;27(1):150-161. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-1-150-161

6. Khalina E.V. Development of the sustainable development concept in Russian economy and marketing. Problemy sovremennoi ekonomiki = Problems of Modern Economics. 2016;(4):116-120. (In Russ.).

7. Rukinov M.V. Anti-Russian sanctions: Structure and strategies of counter-action. Upravlencheskoe konsul’tirovanie = Administrative Consulting. 2019;(6):91-101. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.22394/1726-1139-2019-6-91-101

8. Lipinskii D.A., Musatkina A.A., Chuklova E.V. Alternative sanctions in Russian law. Moscow: RIOR; 2019. 184 p. (In Russ.).

9. Plotnikov V., Golovko M., Fedotova G., Rukinov M. Ensuring national economic security through institutional regulation of the shadow economy. In: Popkova E., Sergi B., eds. Digital economy: Complexity and variety vs. rationality (ISC 2019). Cham: Springer-Verlag; 2020:342-351. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems. Vol. 87). DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-29586-8_40

10. Chatkina E., Kazakova N.A. Risk factor analysis and sustainability assessment of AIC development under sanctions. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(2):166-177. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-2-166-177

11. Dobbs M. E. Guidelines for applying Porter’s five forces framework: A set of industry analysis templates. Competitiveness Review. 2014;24(1):32-45. DOI: 10.1108/CR-06-2013-0059

12. Minasyan V.B. On the comparison of certain measures of catastrophic risks. Upravlenie finansovymi riskami = Financial Risk Management Journal. 2022;(4):284-289. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.36627/2221-7541-2022-4-4-284-289

13. Yumaev M.M. Improving the efficiency of accounting for industry data in the oil industry in order to ensure the economic development of the Russian Federation. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo = Economics, Taxes & Law. 2024;17(3):167-181. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.26794/1999-849X-2024-17-3-167-181

14. Szczygielski J.J., Charteris A., Bwanya P.R., Brzeszczyński J. Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money. 2023;84:101592. DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101592.

15. Zyablitskaya N.V., Tukhtaeva D.D., Tusina A.A., Danilova S.V. The impact of sanctions on the formation of company assets and their sources of financing. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya = Fundamental Research. 2022;(5):46-50. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17513/fr.43252

16. Kosorukova I.V., Loseva O.V., Fedotova M.A. Screening-evaluation of regional investment projects for the provision of state fi support measures. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(2):23-39. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671- 2024-28-2-23-39

17. Glaz’ev S. Yu. A leap into the future: Russia in the new technological and world economic orders. Moscow: Knizhnyi Mir; 2018. 768 p. (In Russ.).