Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Inflation Channel of Monetary Policy in the Russian Federation

Currently, researchers are particularly interested in studying the influence of the dynamics of various financial variables on the pace of economic development. In this regard, an important stage of the analysis is the study of the transmission of monetary impulses through the transmission channels of monetary policy to the real sector of the economy. The purpose of this article is to identify the features of the functioning of the inflation channel in the Russian Federation from 2013 to 2022 based on the construction of VAR models (vector autoregression), as well as to evaluate the function of impulse responses of variables. Through the application of this algorithm of computational and analytical actions, the mechanisms of interaction of the following variables within each of the considered chains of the inflationary channel of monetary policy were investigated: the volume of money supply, the deflator index of gross domestic product (GDP), average monthly nominal accrued wages, and gross domestic product (GDP). As a result, a consistent element of the inflation channel was highlighted, namely, the relationship between the average monthly nominal accrued wages, on the one hand, and the rates of inflation and GDP, on the other. However, the relationships between the other links of the transmission channel remain contradictory, indicating the need for further research aimed at clarifying the quantitative characteristics and direction of the relationships between the variables.

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