Оценка воздействия расходов государственного бюджета Республики Армения на экономический рост

Данная статья посвящена анализу расходной части государственного бюджета Республики Армения (РА) с точки зрения ее воздействия на темпы экономического роста. Объектом исследования являются расходы государственного бюджета РА. Ключевая цель исследования - определить степень воздействия расходной части государственного бюджета на темпы экономического роста в стране. Основная гипотеза исследования заключается в том, что неэффективное расходование бюджетных средств не только не стимулирует, но и во многом является существенным фактором замедления темпов экономического роста в Армении. Методологической базой исследования послужила совокупность положений современной экономической теории относительно воздействия государственных расходов на темпы экономического роста. В работе использованы методы качественного, статистического и эконометрического анализа показателей с последующим выявлением причинно-следственных связей и оценки влияния. В качестве информационной базы были взяты данные по расходам государственного бюджета Армении. Проведенное исследование научной литературы позволило выделить ключевые теоретические подходы относительно воздействия расходной части государственного бюджета на темпы экономического роста в стране. Детально рассмотрены статьи расходов государственного бюджета Армении с точки зрения динамики с выделением положительных и негативных факторов воздействия на экономический рост. Построена модель векторной авторегрессии для выявления влияния отдельных статей по расходам государственного бюджета РА на экономический рост в стране. Сделан вывод, что воздействие расходов государственного бюджета Армении на темпы экономического роста носит долгосрочный негативный характер. Анализ структуры расходов государственного бюджета и построенная модель векторной авторегрессии доказывают, что отсутствие расходной политики в отношении развития человеческого капитала, инфраструктуры и других компонентов государственных расходов является одним из существенных факторов замедления темпов экономического роста в Армении.

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