Assessment of the Current State and Future Prospects of the Russian Ferrous Metallurgy in the Context of Geopolitical Challenges

Ferrous metallurgy traditionally makes a significant contribution to the GDP of the Russian Federation, accounting for a large share of industrial production and generating a significant amount of export revenue. However, the industry has faced significant challenges in recent years. Therefore, it is important to identify the factors that have led to these problems and the drivers that can ensure the sustainable development of this sector in the future. The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively examine the current state of the Russian ferrous metallurgy industry, identify and categorize relevant factors, and determine trends and pathways for development in light of current global market processes and the current geopolitical context. The research is based on the calculation and analysis of key indicators for the global and domestic ferrous metallurgy markets using economic analysis, econometric and statistical techniques. The study found that, since 2022, Russian steel and rolled product production has been declining, as well as stagnating in demand for metal products in the Russian domestic market. The imposition of sanctions has significantly changed the geographical structure of Russian ferrous metal exports, leading to a decline in metal product exports and simultaneously causing problems with logistics and margins in new markets. Due to the impact of a number of identified factors, the financial performance of leading Russian metallurgical companies has been steadily declining since 2022. The results of the study support the implementation of systemic, strategically-oriented measures to address the challenges facing the Russian metallurgy sector and outline the future prospects. Specific factors within the metallurgical industry that determine its current status and future development are of theoretical importance. The practical value of the results obtained lies in their potential use for monitoring the implementation of strategies for the development of priority sectors of the national economy, as well as implementing import substitution, and justifying investment projects that will contribute to the future economic growth of the ferrous metallurgy industry in Russia.

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