Forecasting Business Stability Based on Scenario Approach and Logit-Modeling of Financial Potential

The relevance of the study stems from the need to improve the accuracy of business sustainability forecasting in a highly turbulent economy. In this regard, the purpose of the research was to create a forecast for business sustainability using an example from the non-ferrous metallurgy industry using an advanced approach with a logit analysis of its financial prospects as a means of assessing key risks, and creating scenarios that could increase the accuracy of forecast estimates. The research methodology included principles, factors, indicators, models of sustainable development, empirical analysis and a risk-factor approach. The selection of factors and indicators for the model characterizing the multidimensionality in financial potential is based on an industry risk analysis, which includes the results of a study of the uncertainty of the business environment. Additionally, correlation analysis and assessment of the statistical significance of various factors were conducted. To build the model, data from 2014 to 2023 was downloaded from the SPARK information system, as well as public industry data. The constructed logit model allows us to assess the probability of the realization of key sustainability risks. The proposed assessment scale allows us to interpret the results as a basis for forecasting of the financial potential of non-ferrous metallurgy companies. The scientific novelty lies in improving the algorithm for forecasting business sustainability. This includes identifying risk factors, selecting indicators based on industry analysis, and developing logit models for financial potential. It also involves developing scenarios, that increase the reliability of forecasts of company sustainability over the short and medium terms. The practical value of the results lies in their potential use in research and development projects, as well as assessing and developing industry strategies at the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and by industry professional, investing funds for industrial development, and in generating reports on the sustainable development of socially and economically important enterprises.

1. Ivanter V.V., Porfiryev B.N., Sorokin D.E., et al. How to boost the development of the Russian economy: Priority actions (suggestions for the main activities of the state until 2024). Finance: Theory and Practice. 2018;22(S7):4-15. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2018-0-0-4-15

2. Glazyev S.Yu., Sukharev O.S. Economic growth of Russia and structural modernization: Project approach. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Russian Economic Journal. 2024;(2):4-30. (In Russ.).

3. Bodrunov S.D. Overcoming the challenges of global transformation: STP, knowledge, noonomics. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2023;34(4):435-438. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723040032 (In Russ.: Problemy prognozirovaniya. 2023;(4):8-14. DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-199-8-14).

4. Loseva O.V., Munerman I.V., Fedotova M.A. Assessment and classification models of regional investment projects implemented through concession agreements. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Regions. 2024;20(1):276-292. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-1-19

5. Lukasevich I.Ya., Lvova N.A. Assessment and modeling of volatility in the Russian stock market: Empirical study. Menedzhment i biznes-administrirovanie = Management and Business Administration. 2022;(1):134-149. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.33983/2075-1826-2022-1-134-149

6. Savitskaya G.V. Problems of deterministic modeling of business profitability indicators. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice. 2012;(46):32-39. (In Russ.).

7. Kazakova N.A., Sergeeva E.A. Predicting bankruptcy risks for ferrous metallurgy companies using a logit model. Chernye metally. 2022;(1):68-74. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17580/chm.2022.01.11

8. Kogdenko V. G. Descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics: Data, methods and algorithms. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice. 2019;18(3):447-461. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24891/ea.18.3.447 (In Russ.).

9. Rabdanova V.V. The review of logit-regression models predicting bankruptcy. Vestnik VSGUTU = ESSUTM Bulletin. 2016;(4):129-134. (In Russ.).

10. Kazakova N.A. Zavalishina A.K. Analytical toolkit for assessing financial security risks of companies in the Russian construction sector. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2024;28(3):109-119. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-3-109-119

11. Tsygalov Yu.M., Strizhov S. A. ESG-transformation policies and procedures for Russian companies. Upravlencheskoe konsul’tirovanie = Administrative Consulting. 2022;(7):88-95. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.22394/1726-1139-2022-7-88-95

12. Zhao J., Tang J. Industrial structure change and economic growth: A China-Russia comparison. China Economic Review. 2018;47:219-233. DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.08.008

13. Grewal J., Riedl E.J., Serafeim G. Market reaction to mandatory nonfinancial disclosure. Management Science. 2019;65(7):3061-3084. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3099

14. Efimova O.V. Information on ESG risks and its disclosure in corporate reporting. Auditorskie vedomosti = Audit Journal. 2023;(1):188-191. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17686/17278058_2023_1_188

15. Efimova O.V., Rozhnova O.V. Research methodology for corporate disclosure of business social responsibility: Conceptual approach. Uchet. Analiz. Audit = Accounting. Analysis. Auditing. 2021;8(5):28-40. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.26794/2408-9303-2021-8-5-28-40

16. Melnik M.V. Ensuring the economic security of corporate structures. Innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki = Innovative Development of Economy. 2020;(6):310-318. (In Russ.).

17. Nadvornaya G. G., Klimchuk S.V., Oborin M. S., Gvarliani T. E. Theory and methodology of appraisal of enterprise economic potential. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2016;(6):70-90. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.6.48.4 (In Russ.: Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz. 2016;(6):70-90. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.6.48.4).

18. Lola I. S., Bakeev M. B., Manukov A. B. New indicators of business uncertainty in the Russian economy. Voprosy statistiki. 2024;31(1):5-21. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-5-21

19. Fedotova M.A., Pogodina T.V., Karpova S.V. Assessment of trends and prospects for the development of the Russian economy in the context of sanctions pressure. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2025;29(1):6-19. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2025-29-1-6-19

20. Steblyanskaya A.N., Wang Zh., Bragina Z.V. Financial sustainable growth theory as a result of interaction with energy, environmental and social processes (evidence from oil and gas industry). Finance: Theory and Practice. 2019;23(2):134-152. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-2-134-152