Non-emission Contour of the National Financial System and the Principle of Cognitive Modeling in Its Stress Testing

The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that in the context of the transformation of the international monetary system and the pressure of sanctions, Russia faces the need to take a proactive position in terms of ensuring the sovereign nature of its national financial and monetary systems. In this context, a team of researchers from the Institute of Innovative Financial Instruments and Technologies at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics have developed a model for the creation of an investment (reserve) contour for the national financial system, based on the use of multi-commodity and multi-currency price stability indices, while the check of the degree of stability to the external environment and the possibility of practical application of this model is the purpose of the study in question. The methodology of stress testing of risk factors accompanying the functioning of the model was chosen as the basis for the evidence base. To implement the stress testing procedure, the cognitive modeling apparatus was used, which is capable of dealing with weakly formalized situations and expert-based parameters within its interdisciplinarity framework. Based on the generated list of control factors, a cognitive model was created in matrix and graph forms. An analysis of its structural stability and resistance to disturbances was conducted. The main hypothesis of this study is the ability of the proposed model for this issue, circulation and redemption of financial instruments secured by raw materials, currencies of friendly countries and other assets to overcome the main stresses (risks) generated by the control factors selected by the authors. This hypothesis was tested using a scenario approach. Within the framework of this approach, a number of scenarios were tested that corresponded to risk groups associated with the stages of the functioning of financial instruments in the investment (reserve) circuit. The substantive formulation of scenarios and their implementation using the impulse model have allowed us to obtain results in the context of three options for the development of situations. These results have substantiated the stability of the optimistic and basic behavior under stress tests, and confirmed the practical suitability of the developed approach to forming the non-emission (reserve) contour of the national financial system.

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