Влияние государственной политики на изменение ставок НДС

Актуальность темы исследования обусловлена тем, что правительство Индонезии планировало в начале 2025 г. повысить ставку НДС с 11 до 12%, и эта тема стала одной из самых обсуждаемых. Цель данного исследования — предложить наилучшие альтернативные варианты политики, выработав комплексные решения. В работе применялись методы системной динамики. Использовалась имитационная модель, сочетающая качественные и количественные подходы. Моделирование проводилось с помощью программного обеспечения Power-sim. Рассмотрены три сценария: пессимистичный, умеренный и оптимистичный. В исследовании применяются шесть основных и три дополнительные переменные. Результаты показывают, что при пессимистичном сценарии моделирования повышение ставки НДС снизит покупательную способность населения и приведет к уклонению от уплаты налогов. При умеренном сценарии моделирования экономические условия будут сбалансированными, но в будущем это приведет к снижению потенциального объема налоговых поступлений и уклонению от уплаты налогов. При оптимистичном сценарии снижение ставки НДС уменьшит налоговое бремя, увеличит потенциальную покупательную способность населения, повысит экспорт и сократит импорт, снизив уровень уклонения от уплаты налогов и увеличив налоговый потенциал. Сделан вывод, что из трех сценариев лучше всего использовать оптимистичный, поскольку он благоприятно скажется на общей экономической ситуации. Авторы исследования рекомендуют правительству снизить коэффициент уклонения от уплаты налогов и упростить цепочку поставок, поскольку ее сложность приводит к увеличению затрат.

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