Устойчивость цен на продовольствие в ответ на шоки фискальных, монетарных и природных факторов в Индонезии

Предметом исследования является динамика цен на продовольствие и их колебание под влиянием внутренних и внешних факторов. Оценивается влияние количества осадков, цен на топливо и процентных ставок на колебания цен на продовольствие, а также анализируется относительный вклад этих переменных. Цель исследования — оценить степень влияния внутренних (эндогенных) и внешних (экзогенных) факторов на колебания цен на продовольствие, определить относительную значимость каждого фактора и дать рекомендации по стабилизации цен на продовольствие. Используется метод векторной модели коррекции ошибок с экзогенными переменными (VECMX) для анализа динамической взаимосвязи между эндогенными переменными (продовольственной инфляцией) и экзогенными переменными (процентными ставками, количеством осадков и ценами на топливо). Актуальность исследования заключается в том, что оно позволяет понять, какие факторы влияют на динамику цен на продукты питания, что может послужить основой для разработки политики стабилизации цен на продовольствие. Результаты показали, что изменения цен на продовольствие сохраняются в течение длительного времени, если на них влияют факторы налогово-бюджетной политики, денежно-кредитной политики и природные факторы. В среднем для того, чтобы цены на продовольствие вернулись к естественному уровню (новому равновесию) после потрясения, требуется около 20–30 месяцев. На большинство колебаний цен на продовольствие (более 70%) влияют внутренние факторы. Через некоторое время влияние цен на топливо становится более значимым, чем влияние количества осадков, а влияние базовой процентной ставки — наименьшим.

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