Assessment the Economic Impact of Raising the Retirement Age in Russia: Factor Analysis and ANCOVA Model

Reforming pension systems amid demographic aging and rising fiscal pressure necessitates robust tools for the quantitative assessment of their socio-economic consequences. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a comprehensive methodology for the retrospective evaluation of pension reform, integrating coefficient, factor, variance, and regression analyses within an enhanced analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) framework, supplemented by graphical validation. The methodology is applied to the 2018 Russian pension reform, which introduced a gradual increase in the statutory retirement age. Official statistical data from Rosstat and the Social Fund of Russia for the period 2001–2023 are used as the empirical basis. The analysis reveals that, during the interim implementation phase of the reform (2019–2023), the financial sustainability of the pension system improved. This improvement is partially attributable to a demographic shock–namely, the reduction in the number of elderly citizens due to excess mortality in 2020–2021. At the same time, a decline in the earnings replacement rate was observed, indicating a deterioration in the relative level of pension provision. Crisis events, including forced medium-term shifts in budgetary policy priorities, further diminished the effectiveness of the reform. The results demonstrate a statistically significant association between the implementation of the reform and changes in key performance indicators of the pension system; however, they do not confirm the achievement of the stated objective–namely, an improvement in the level of pension adequacy. Under conditions of persistently high rubledenominated inflation, the study recommends continuing to develop the non-state pension system.

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