In this article, the authors present a quantitative assessment of the consequences of a number of government decisions aimed at achieving accelerated economic growth, namely: 1) diversifcation of the economy; 2) reduction of the differentiation of regions; 3) increase of social protection of the population; 4) stimulation of the domestic demand. The authors used for calculations the modifed model complex developed in CEMI RAS. The complex includes a set of Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE models) and Agent-Based Models (ABMs). The author’s calculations showed, as compared with other industries, that the increase in fnancing of the sectors of the new economy leads for 7 years to the growth of GDP by 4.45 percentage points in relation to the basic version of the economy. We also established that due to tax preferences and differentiated investment policy in relation to the “problem” regions, it is possible to equalize the level of development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the process of inter-regional smoothing is time-consuming and a signifcant effect is possible after fve years from the beginning of the implementation of the relevant mechanisms. The results of the calculations showed that the increase in benefts as a whole leads to GDP growth and has a positive impact on the economic system. We also concluded that the reduction of the refnancing rate leads to an increase in GDP and lower inflation. With the help of the model complex, we calculated the influence of a number of illegal fnancial transactions on the main macro indicators. Quantitative assessment was carried out in three scenarios: 1) withdrawal of budget funds; 2) tax evasion by individuals and legal entities; 3) withdrawal of fnancial assets abroad. The unrealized GDP growth potential for the six years compared to the initial period was 11.107, 21.323, and 31.976 percentage points for the three scenarios, respectively. The calculations also show that almost any cash infusion into the real sector of the economy leads to GDP growth due to signifcant demonetization of the Russian economy.

Usually, it is diffcult for developing countries to choose a currency regulation policy because of institutional inadequacy, including a signifcant level of concentration in commodity markets, and a high degree of dependence of the national market and fnancial system on exogenous factors and a huge external debt. This article is dedicated to the analysis and evaluation of key factors affecting the formation of the Armenian national currency (dram) exchange rate, as well as to the choice of the currency regulation policy in Armenia. The authors carried out a statistical and econometric analysis of the factors of the foreign exchange rate formation, taking into account the specifcs of the transition economy as a whole, as well as the features of the Armenian economy, in particular. The authors have identifed the exogenous and endogenous factors of the foreign exchange rate formation of the dram, depending on the inflow and outflow of foreign currency. Further, the authors specifed the influence of dominant factors on the choice of the currency regulation policy in the country. The authors carried out an econometric analysis of the factors identifed at the frst stage of the study using the VAR model. The results obtained from this model proved the hypothesis of the non-market nature of the dram’s exchange rate formation. The authors concluded that the dram’s exchange rate formation has non-market nature because of signifcant intervention on the currency market by the “monetary authorities”. The key conclusion of this study is the thesis about the need to change the approaches to currency regulation in Armenia in favour of the transition to a free-floating exchange rate policy in order to stimulate sustainable rates of economic growth in the long term.

The paper analyzes the effectiveness of budget fnancing of innovative activities in Russia. The structure of sources of fnancing of internal expenditures on research and development, branch orientation of the state support of innovative activity is considered. The estimation of the cost-effectiveness of technological innovation is given. The analysis is based mainly on the materials of Rosstat for 2013–2016. In addition, the authors cited international comparisons of innovative activity for 2012–2014. To assess the effectiveness of government measures to support innovation activity proposed “Golden rule of the economy.” It consists in determining the ratio of the main components of innovation activity (innovative goods and technologies) and the resources used, including budget fnancing. An important conclusion is made about the ineffcient mechanism of state support of innovative activity in Russia. Proposals for its improvement are formulated, including: bringing the content and structure of state programs in line with the objectives of the formation of conditions for accelerated technological modernization of the industry; introduction of the Institute of state programs of the mechanism of project fnancing and methods of the digital economy; reducing the number of targets of state programs; stimulating by an order of magnitude more technological costs carried out by industrial companies using the mechanism of public-private partnership; preferential state stimulation of process and organizational and managerial innovations in the creation of value chains; encouragement of own and commissioned research and development carried out by domestic companies; promotion of innovative activity in large industrial enterprises, etc.

The purpose of our study was to substantiate theoretically and applied integrated approaches to the functioning and development of the fnancial system in the context of the state fnancial policy under the international sanctions. The study has been based on the theory of fnance, the dialectical method, and scientifc argumentation. We used a systemic approach, historical and economic-statistical methods as well. The authors substantiate the important scientifc direction of the modern fnancial system — modernization and progressive development and determine the consolidating functions of the state fnancial regulation, aimed at eliminating the imbalance, including new approaches to fnancing the budget defcit at the expense of borrowed funds. New approaches to macroeconomic orientation form new opportunities for modern modifcations in the fnancial system. On the basis of scientific arguments, the authors showed that although the federal budget of Russia plays a key role in the development of the fnancial system and the fnancial market, and the state fnancial policy acts as a macroeconomic regulator, the fnancial system of Russia develops on the basis of its own laws arising within it. The authors substantiate the point of view that the state fnancial policy is aimed at revealing the diversity of the functions of money circulation. This has an impact not only on social reproduction but also on the functioning and development of the fnancial system as a whole. The public fnancial policy should take into account the peculiarities of the functioning and development of the fnancial system in the context of constantly occurring macro-, meso-, and microeconomic processes. Of course, this will allow applying new approaches to modern changes in the fnancial system, and will also indicate the existence of a communicative convergent market, which is a sign of the formation of a “market of symbolic exchange of signs”, and hence of the new monetary changes.

The article substantiates and formalizes, in analytical form, the probabilistic model of demand for alternative lending channels, taking into account the common and distinctive characteristics of traditional and new ways to take a credit. To develop this model, the advantages and disadvantages of lending channels have emphasized. The possible exclusive scenarios of the credit market development in conditions of digitalization of the economy have been identifed. Taking into account the trends and scenarios for the development of credit channels, a descriptive model of the institutional structure of the demand and supply of credit has been proposed. It is supposed that traditional lending institutions will be able to adapt the business to innovative technologies, offering customers fundamentally new business models, which will perfectly correspond to the sphere of FinTech. According to the descriptive model, the authors proposed to estimate the market share of lending channels based on the application of utility theory and discrete choice models. It is assumed that potential borrowers make a choice of one / another lending channel from available alternatives, maximizing the utility, under the influence of personal and consumer characteristics of the loan. The authors formalized a multidimensional logit model (nested logit model — NLM) for describing the discrete choice of an alternative lending channel and the corresponding subgroups of lenders (traditional, FinTech and BigTech companies). In this case, the distinctive feature of NLM is a possibility of taking into account the correlations in borrowers’ preferences. The conditions for the application of the developed model have determined. Due to the lack of relevant statistical data as to the volume of lending by the digital channels, the authors modelled changes in the market share of the traditional lending channel based on hypothetical data (characteristics of credit). In the process of modelling, the authors showed nonlinear changes in the demand for an alternative lending channel owing to the existence of individual preferences of potential borrowers. The proposed approach can be used to model and forecast the changes in the credit market conditions

The ownership structure of large Russian companies is characterized by a high share of state participation, but the relationship of dividend policy with the ownership structure (public or private) is not defned. Statistical analysis of the Russian companies shows that this relationship exists and can be nonlinear. In the course of the regression analysis, the authors tested hypotheses about the existence of a negative relationship between the volume of dividends paid and the share of state participation. We use panel data from nonfnancial companies listed in the Moscow stock exchange from 2008 to 2016, who paid dividends during this period; 150 companies in total. Three specifcations were tested: the frst one uses the dividend payout ratio as a dependent variable; the second — the share of dividends in the free cash flow; the third has a quadratic form — the nonlinear dependence of dividend payout ratio and share of state participation. Control variables were based on life cycle theory. Testing has shown that in the linear form there is no statistically signifcant relationship between the indicators of dividend payouts and the share of state participation. We have shown that the relationship between the dividend payout ratio and the share of government participation is non-linear and has the form of an inverted u-shape parabola. For a low level of state participation the dependence is positive but for a high level of participation, it is negative. This result can be explained in the framework of the agency theory: a positive relationship indicates the use of dividend payouts to resolve the agency conflict; a negative — the concentration of money in the hands of managers due to minority shareholders weakness. Further development of the study may include the addition of institutional constraints to the model, as well as the expansion of the concept of the dividend policy outcome within the framework of the frm’s sustainable development theory.

The subject of our study was the analysis of information security of the object of a particular credit and financial sphere, issuing microloans. The authors built a plan-scheme of a typical object of the credit and fnancial sector. We also described the organizational structure and staff structure of the microloans organization. Further, we conducted an analysis of the organization’s staff, their activities, and areas in which they have the right to access. On the basis of the obtained data, we constructed a model of threats to information security of the microloans organization. The authors determined the correspondence of the types of threats to the types of violators of information security. We have built a three-dimensional model of information security, which allows us to calculate the vulnerability factor of the object of credit and fnancial sector, based on the data obtained in the company issuing micro-loans, as well as available statistics. The main parameters that determine the security indicators are identifed: the number and characteristics of destabilizing factors that can manifest themselves and have a negative impact on the protected information; the number and characteristics of the methods used to protect information; the number and categories of persons who can potentially be violators of information security rules; types of protected information. By calculating the security coeffcient of the object, it is possible to create an effective system of its information security and to optimize the choice of a set of technical means and methods of protection of information. It can signifcantly reduce the damage arising from the threats to information security. The method of mathematical modelling developed by the authors allows estimating the current level of information security in any organization of the fnancial sphere.

The obligatory features of the unit of account are formulated. Distinctive characteristic properties of a set of cryptocalculation units, in particular, subsets of x-type (coin) and y-type (token) calculation units, are revealed. It is proved that these sets do not intersect. It is proposed to allocate a subset of C 2 in the set of coins, which has an additional characteristic property — functioning on the basis of a smart contract. The thesis that any settlement unit carries the cost of a resource is proved. Even for units of account with the so-called “intrinsic value” (bitcoin), the presence of a resource in its functions was found. Four characteristic properties inherent in the set of “money” (M = {money}) are disclosed and a subset DM = {digital money} is allocated, containing a set of digital Fiat money secured by the state (sets F = {fat}) and a subset P = {private}, which is actually an addition to the set F). It is proved that cryptocurrencies have characteristic properties of the set M = {money} only within their own community. The paradox of the algorithmic guarantor, reflecting the absence of the need for formalization of algorithmic informal institutions, is formulated. Disclosed defnitions of such concepts as “cryptocurrency”, “token economy” and “tokenization economy”. Euler circles are used to visualize the relationship between different sets of calculation units. A coherent classifcation of calculation units based on the characteristic properties of the identifed sets is formed. The results of the study can be used to form the basis of legal regulation of the circulation of digital units of account.

In modern electronic stock exchanges there is an opportunity to analyze event driven market microstructure data. This data is highly informative and describes physical price formation which makes it possible to find complex patterns in price dynamics. It is very time consuming and hard to find this kind of patterns by handcrafted rules. However, modern machine learning models are able to solve such issues automatically by learning price behavior which is always changing. The present study presents profitable trading system based on a machine learning model and market microstructure data. Data for the research was collected from Moscow stock exchange MICEX and represents a limit order book change log and all market trades of a liquid security for a certain period. Logistic regression model was used and compared to neural network models with different configuration. According to the study results logistic regression model has almost the same prediction quality as neural network models have but also has a high speed of response which is very important for stock market trading. The developed trading system has medium frequency of deals submission that lets it to avoid expensive infrastructure which is usually needed in high-frequency trading systems. At the same time, the system uses the potential of high quality market microstructure data to the full extent. This paper describes the entire process of trading system development including feature engineering, models behavior comparison and creation of trading strategy with testing on historical data.

The review article positions the materials of the results of the VI International scientifc-practical conference, the content of which is considered from a special angle — through the phenomenon of market economies. Within the framework of the forum, the understanding of the past (in theoretical and applied terms) market model of management and the search for new sources of economic growth were carried out, the fnancial problems accompanying the genesis and evolution of economic life were discussed. The high level of discussion can be judged by the participation in the conference of such well-known post-Soviet scientists as R.M. Nureyev (Russia), B.S. Myrzaliyev (Kazakhstan), G.I. Ganush (Belarus), G.L. Sargsyan (Armenia), N.u. uzakov (uzbekistan) and others. In accordance with the program of the conference, special attention was paid to the analysis of debatable historical, economic, institutional, reproductive and transformational aspects of the phenomenon of the market system of management, explicated through the prism of monetary and fnancial relations. Materials of the conference actualize the development of evolutionary, institutional and interdisciplinary aspects of economic science, as a stage in the deepening of the existing system of knowledge about the phenomenon (objects) that make up the latest areas of Theoretical Economics, and their relationship, revealing a wide range of discussion of methodological and theoretical problems of the phenomenon of market economy. Of particular scientifc and practical interest are the opinions of the forum participants, reflecting the state and vectors of development of modern scientific knowledge in the feld of fnancial instruments of commodity-money relations, showing “bottlenecks” in this segment of economic science. A number of generalizing conclusions and recommendations are aimed at solving problems that are relevant to modern society, such as: strengthening the confrontation between the national and global economy, sanctions counteraction, contradictions of the traditional monetary economy and the emerging use of cryptocurrency. The results of the conference not only acquaint the academic and scientifc community with the trends in the study of the market phenomenon in the CIS but also have a signifcant potential applied interest.