Topic. The article discusses the policy of progressive fiscal consolidation carried out in developed countries and in Russia. There is also a characteristic of fiscal policy in Russia.

 Purpose. We aim to identify the actual effects of the policy of financial consolidation in terms of a tight dependence on the cyclical development of the world economy.

Methodology. We used the methodology of macroeconomic analysis, systemic approach, statistical methods (cluster analysis), and methods of mathematical statistics and econometrics.

Results. The rising debt of the developed countries in conditions of chronic budget deficit actualized the task of fiscal consolidation. Initially, the idea of fiscal consolidation was to implement a progressive consolidation, i. e. the reduction of budget expenditures, which would contribute to the formation of the financial potential. In turn, the financial potential is realized in the form of a budget surplus that could be used to reduce the tax burden and rise of spending in the future. Literature indicates on the effect of reproduction of the austerity measures due to changes in budget institutions; it limits the ability to stimulate the economy through measures of fiscal policy. Thus, the approach to the implementation of fiscal policy is offset, in the direction of tightening. The analysis of fiscal policy in Russia since the late 1990s does not allow concluding that its character corresponds to the ideas of progressive fiscal consolidation. Despite the creation of a significant budget surplus in times of boom, it practically was not used for the task of stimulating economic development.

Conclusions. The policy of fiscal consolidation, ongoing in Russia, primarily aimed at solving a narrow range of budget issues and is not intended for the future to stimulate the economy.

Relevance. Today, every state considers the problem of economic growth is the key, and in modern conditions of globalization and integration processes, the occurrence of crisis situations, increasing the likelihood of risks, limited natural resources, growing global competition, this problem is of fundamental importance. These tendencies also bring to the fore the necessity of choosing the most optimal forms of state regulation, ensuring the rational combination of market mechanisms and administrative interference in the economy.

Purpose. Development of theoretical provisions and identification of the main directions of the evolution of the state regulations forms of intensification of economic growth on the basis of a comprehensive assessment of their impact on the economy.

Methods. As a methodological basis of research were used methods of systematization, structuring of information, correlation and regression analysis, a system approach.

Results. The article shows that state regulation of economy in market conditions is a necessary system of standard measures of legislative, executive and supervisory nature performed by the competent state bodies and public organizations in order to stabilize and adapt the existing socio-economic system to changing conditions. On the basis of systematization and generalization of theoretical and practical aspects of state regulation in Russia and in foreign countries we identified trends and patterns of state regulation of the intensification of regional economic growth, assessed their impact using the author’s method of regression analysis that allowed to identify the priority forms of state regulation. The approach proposed in the article for identification of the relationship between the resultant indicators of state regulation and the factor indicators that affected the results. It allows us to determine primary tools of macro-regulation.

Conclusions. Our research demonstrates the need to implement various forms of state regulation in existing conditions of growing crisis trends, globalization, and geopolitical tensions. The preferable direction of state regulation is the intensification of economic growth — the fundamental factor of economic security and global competitiveness.

Topic. The article substantiates the necessity of use of scenario approach in the study and prediction of the process of movement of financial flows between institutional sectors in the territorial system. It allows detecting negative trends in the movement of financial resources between sectors of the economy, and form a picture of various scenarios of transformation in the process of movement of financial flows between them under the influence of different factors.

 Purpose. We try to find regularities and causal relationships in the process of movement of financial flows between institutional sectors in the regional system and to create on their basis the predictive scenarios of a possible transformation matrix of financial flows between sectors.

Methodology. The study is based on the principles and theoretical-methodological fundamentals of the scenario simulation, and includes the following stages: formation of initial matrix of financial flows between institutional sectors in the region; the study of the patterns of their movements; an economic-mathematical modeling of processes of movement of financial flows between institutional sectors by using multiple nonlinear regression analysis to establish causal relationships among these processes; the search for possible deviations in the movement of financial flows generated by the model and development on their basis of different scenarios of the transformation matrix of financial flows. There was used tool for econometric analysis by the method of least squares to eliminate multicollinearity.

 Results. We described the main directions and tendencies of the financial flows’ movement between sectors in theSverdlovsk region in the periods of increase of the crisis phenomena in the economy and after stabilization of the economic development. We generated predictive scenarios of a possible transformation matrix of financial flows between sectors and modeled the main scenarios of the transformation matrix of financial flows between sectors.

Conclusions. For stabilization of the financial development of institutional sectors in theSverdlovsk region, it is necessary: to attract the financial resources for the nonfinancial corporate sector through the increased investment of institutional sectors in debt securities of industrial enterprises. It is necessary to attract additional funds for the deposits of the financial corporations’ sector, as well as additional capital through the emission and sale of the shares of the banking sector. These activities will also help to stabilize the financial-economic situation and other institutional sectors.

Topic. This paper analyzes the impact on the growth of a selection of different targets of monetary and credit policy: the discretionary policy; targeting the money supply; inflation targeting; and fixed exchange rate regime.

Purpose. We tried to identify the optimal (from the point of view of stimulating the long-term economic growth) regime of monetary and credit policy.

 Methodology. We used panel data for 188 countries for the period between 1999 and 2015. Using models with fixed effects there were estimated long-run dynamic multipliers of the policy regimes of the Central Bank. The advantage of the presented work in comparison with previous studies is that, first, in the same model simultaneously we compare all the main targets of monetary policy, and, secondly, there was investigated a number of specific subsamples of countries formed with different criteria, such as belonging to a particular continent, the nature of the economy, and the level of ethnolinguistic diversity. Regression analysis is complemented by discussion of specific examples of the change target policy by the monetary authorities of countries belonging to different subsamples under consideration.

Results. In the course of econometric modeling, we revealed a consistent (for a group of countries under consideration) the positive impact of inflation targeting on long-term dynamics of the outcome. For alternative nominal anchors for monetary policy of such a sustainable eff ect was not revealed.

 Conclusions. Mere or mixed modes of inflation targeting can be recommended to the Central banks of both developed and developing countries if, in addition to achieving price stability, one of their long-term goals is to create conditions for economic growth.

This article is a reworked lecture I have given at theFinancialUniversityunder the Government of theRussian FederationinMoscow. This lecture has considered the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations (outcomes), allowing them to “go viral” and spread far away, even worldwide, and thereby influencing economic outcomes. However, I had to accommodate my talk to the Russian audience adding some illustrative examples for better understanding. My basic goal in this paper is to describe what we know about narratives and the penchant of the human mind to be engaged by them, to consider reasons to expect that narratives might well be thought of as important, largely exogenous shocks to the aggregate economy. Thus, the main focus was on narratives going viral, affecting the economy in an age of neuroimaging, big data. This is because the human brain has always been highly tuned towards narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions — even in such basic actions as spending and investing. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future. Many examples are seen as revealing the importance of the linkage of human brains and now computers through narratives associated with popular models of the economy and offering new research opportunities for both economics and neuroscience.

 Topic. In modern circumstances, it is especially the acute question of developing new priorities ensuring the dynamic development of the economy. Among the tools of state regulation of economic growth, it is of special importance ensuring an efficient interaction of fiscal and debt policy. The article examines the problem of establishing an optimal balance between taxation and public borrowing to solve the optimization problem of financial provision of the state’s functions and maximizing GDP growth.

Purpose. Taxation is an alternative source of replenishment of the budget to government borrowings. In the article, the author proposes new approaches to the formation of tax and debt policies. Also, it is grounded the most desired quantitative relation between tax and debt burden.

 Methods. In the article, we used a content analysis of the optimization and descriptive analytical models of the relationship of fiscal expansion (spending) of the state and economic growth. We used economic and mathematical models of the tax and debt strategies. Based on the comparative analysis we assessed the ability of tax to ensure the functioning of the state against the potential fiscal effect of economically justifiable government borrowing and the total amount of expenses of the budget.

Results. The use of these models allowed comparing the evaluation of future debt burden under different parameters of economic development and match them with possible values of the tax burden. Derived indicators can be compared with the permissible values of indicators of the safe level of debt. It has practical meaning, both for national security and for identifying opportunities for the placement of new loans.

Topic. The article discusses the growth of the Russian companies, which became today for many of them a priority. The growth of the company is associated with many challenges. Thus it is required to assess many factors that influence company’s growth. However, until now, we have not a unified approach regarding the content of the term “company’s growth”, nor the defining factors of growth. Therefore, it is possible to highlight two outstanding issues in this area. The first is the choice of the indicator, characterizing the growth of the company. The second is the study of the factors that can have sustainable impact on growth. These are the questions we try to answer in this study. The real and sustainable growth of the companies acts in this study as subjects on the example of the 112 largest Russian companies on the Forbes list.

Methods. As research methods we used general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, comparison, graphics), and special ones (statistical analysis methods, the coefficient method).

Results. We proved in this study that the composition and the degree of influence of financial and non-financial factors on the real and sustainable growth of the company are different. The financing structure for large companies is not significant factor. Therefore, it not matter what kind of resources the company uses for the growth of its business. The presence of the Board of Directors is an essential condition for the effectiveness of the current activities that impact on actual sales growth. In the strategic plan, the sustainable growth is due to the presence of independent members in the Board of Directors. Investments in long-term assets demonstrated their importance, with a certain time lag, for both the real growth and sustainability of the company.

Topic. The article examines the problems associated with forecasting of the development prospects of the economy.

Purpose. The creation of a model used to predict the replenishment of budgets of all levels. Analysis of the state of the Russian economy in general and its 85 re gions.

Methodology. The research was conducted on the basis of economic and statistical techniques, system analysis, and scientific methods of comparison and mapping. The work applied the proposed the authors the term “macroeconomic production function” — an analog of the production function, which expresses the dependence of production results of the enterprise and factors of production. We used data on tax revenues for all kinds of taxes, employment and gross regional product contained in consolidated informationanalytical system of regional tax revenues “Taxes of Russia”. Data analysis and estimation of parameters was performed using the programs of statistical data processing — IBM SPSS Statistics 20. In the multiple regression procedure of SPSS it was used methods of inclusion, allowing step-by-step selection in a regression equation only the significant independent variables.

Results. Based on the proposed model, we conducted the comparison of actual and estimated values of tax revenues for all the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2011 and 2014. We obtained the values of point estimates of the model parameters of macroeconomic production functions. Further, we provided simulation of the values of tax revenues for all the subjects of the Russian Federation for 2014 year. Next, we compared the actual and calculated (from the model) values of tax revenues. Finally, we present the results of comparing the actual and estimated (from the model) values of tax revenues for all the subjects of the Russian Federation for 2014 year.

 Conclusions. The dependence of tax revenues from the factor of labor productivity is constant for every year. With the growth of capital, the amount of tax incomes of subjects of the Russian Federation was threefold higher than increase in productivity of labor. It can be used for planning of economic development of regions.

Topic. The article discusses the trends shaping the domestic investment demand in the Russian economy in the context of the regulatory capacity of monetary and credit policy.

 Purpose. We try to identify factors and conditions that stimulate investment growth in the Russian economy taking into account the active role of the credit system.

Methodology. The study is based on the use of systematic, evolutionary and institutional approaches and the artificial neural network method. To calculate data about the volumes and dynamics of investment loans the authors applied the method of indirect calculation using data from Bank of Russia of loans to non-financial enterprises and the Federal state statistics service on the value of business investment in fixed capital, and the share of Bank loans in total sources of financing investments in fixed capital.

Result. We discovered some specific features of the influence of the main channels of the transmission mechanism of modern monetary and credit policy of the Bank of Russia on the formation of internal investment demand. The authors understand it as a need, the willingness and ability of economic agentsresidents to the reproduction and accumulation of capital for economic growth based on innovation. According to the obtained results based on analysis of profitability ratios of goods sold (products, works, and services) of main economic activity and interest rates on Bank deposits we found the negative growth trend in the number of main branches of economy, where profitability is lower than the weighted average rate on deposits.

Conclusions. We made some suggestions as concerns improving the effects of current monetary and credit policy in the context of forming of internal investment demand. Also, we grounded the principles of choice of strategic priorities of monetary and credit policy adequate to the requirements of sustainable economic growth and interrelated with other components of the macroeconomic policy.

Introduction. The importance of facing the country’s strategic objectives makes it necessary to make more active use of the entire spectrum of credit and financial relations, in particular, leads to the enhancement of the role of the credit market, which currently present a number of challenges. Despite the fact that the term “credit market” is widely used by practitioners and economists, the theoretical foundations, revealing the contents of the credit market in the scientific literature insufficiently developed. Moreover, economists differ in defining its content and constituent elements. There is a need for a theoretical study of the credit market as an integrated system, provide the basis for the search of practical solutions.

Purpose. To investigate the Russian credit market as a developing social-economic system, relatively isolated in space and relatively stable in time, which has both the properties of external integrity and internal variety. To determine the driving force of its development.

Methods. A study of the credit market as an integrated system was based on the system paradigm, proposed by J. Kornai and comprehensively developed by G. B. Kleiner.

Results. The use of a system paradigm allowed to investigate the credit market as an integrated system, to define process system as dominant and to formulate its mission, which is providing constant modernization of the means and opportunities for effective interaction of market participants by balancing the demand for credit products and supply, increases the capacity of the credit market, its proportionality, and promoting competition. The system approach allowed also to prove that the credit market develops under the influence of internal forces, and under the influence of dynamically changing environment, and appropriate management decisions.

Prospects. The results of theoretical research of the credit market on the basis of methodological approaches determined by the system paradigm can form the direction of its comprehensive modernization, including the modernization of regulation of the credit market, creating market institutions and socio-economic development of the country.

 Conclusions. A study of the credit market as a developing integrated socio-economic system, identified process system as the main driving force of its development and also to disclose the significant influence of the environment and the regulatory system on the credit market. Thus the purpose of the article was achieved.