Forecasting of economic indicators with time series using one or another method or another but the only method leads to the situation that all the information contained in other forecasting methods is usually discarded. The information that is ignored may contain information that allows other features of the economic process to be assessed. Combining forecasts makes possible to take into account almost all the information contained in particular forecasts. In the article, we present the analysis of the application of the method of regression analysis, in particular, ridge regression for finding the weighting coefficients of the particular forecasts in the combined forecast. We compared the accuracy of prediction based on the ridge regression with other methods of combining predictions. The purpose of our research work was an analysis of the most common methods of combining forecasts — various modifications of Granger-Ramanathan methods and comparison with a new approach of combining forecasts based on the ridge regression for its use in practice. We used statistical methods of time series forecasting (the method of harmonic weights, adaptive exponential smoothing using a tracking signal, the method of simple exponential smoothing and the Box-Jenkins model), the method of constructing combined forecasts, as well as methods of regression analysis. As a result, we built the combined forecasts based on annual data for the period from 1950 to 2015 on the production in Russia of some products: steel, metallurgical coke, pulp, plywood, cement. We used the methods of Granger-Ramanathan (without restrictions and with restrictions on the sum of coefficients in partial predictions) and also the ∆-coefficients obtained by the ridge regression method. The forecasts constructed using the Granger-Ramanathan methods give the highest accuracy of the combined forecast. The method based on the ridge regression is less accurate, but better than the separate predictions. At the same time, the proposed method of calculating the weight coefficients on the basis of the ridge regression has a well- developed scheme of calculation and eliminates the negative weight coefficients in the combined forecast.

In this article, the authors investigate the current theoretical and methodological approaches to the identification of systemically important banks, taking into account the specifics of national economies. The purpose of our study is an elaboration of criteria for the identification of systemically important banks at the national level. It creates a platform for the use of a proportional approach to the regulation of their activities. We used a cross- sectoral approach. It is based on the use of methods of induction and cluster analysis, which involves ranking banks in terms of their impact separately on the non-financial and financial sectors of the economy, followed by aggregation and ranking of the results. The study is based on the analysis of theoretical and methodological approaches to the identification of systemically important banks and was performed in relation to the Russian economy. It includes an analysis of the financial statements of commercial banks and the definition of indicators characterizing their cross-sectoral impact on the economy. We have elaborated criteria and evaluation scales for quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the systemically important banks with the allocation of significance levels. On the basis of the developed criteria, we analyzed the systemically important Russian banks for the non- financial and financial sectors, and for the economy as a whole. Further, we gave the quantitative and qualitative assessment of the systemically important Russian banks and provided a comparative analysis of the results with the officially established list of systemically important banks in the Russian Federation. The criteria and evaluation scales proposed in the study allow increasing the objectivity of the banks’ classification as systemically important ones. At the same time, they create a platform for using a proportional approach to regulating the activities of systemically important banks. Proposed in the study the criteria for identification of the systemically important banks, with regard to their impact on certain sectors of the economy, are universal and can be used in different countries.

The accelerated pace of development of the cryptocurrency market and its integration into the system of economic, operational, financial and other processes determines the need for a comprehensive study of this phenomenon. This is particularly relevant because in recent months, at the state level have intensified discussions on the prospects of the legalization of the cryptocurrency market and the possibility of using its tools in the economic activities of economic agents. Despite the sometimes polar views and approaches at the moment among Russian experts regarding the solution to this issue, the development of the crypto-currencies market is extremely high, regardless of its regulation. This determines and actualizes the scientific research in the field of evaluation of the prospects of development of this market, forming the subject of this study in order to predict the possible effects and risks for the national economic system. The purpose of the article is the development of tools of modelling and forecasting the volatility of the cryptocurrency market on the basis of “foreseeing” fluctuations in the value of “digital money” using special models of autoregression (ARMA, ARIMA). The study was based on the application of a class of parametric models. It allowed describing both stationary and non-stationary time series and on this basis to develop a system of prognostic estimates for the prospects of further development of the series under study. With the help of our ARIMA model, which evaluates the parameters of the analyzed time series of the cryptocurrency exchange rate, we developed a system of prognostic assessments for the short term. The authors proved that the application of such models with a high level of reliability predicts future adjustments in the market under study. It leads to a high level of prospects for their use in modelling future parameters of the cryptocurrency market development. This creates a basis for a business to develop adaptive mechanisms for to emerging price index adjustments of “digital money”.

The authors of the article present modern approaches to the assessment of the value of human life abroad and in contemporary Russia, which can be used to determine the fair amount of compensation payments to victims in emergency situations of various natures. To this end, a wide range of initial data was used: the results of Russian and international sociological surveys, statistics of Rosstat, the World Bank, and other international databases. The analysis of the legislation carried out by the authors showed that the value of human life in Russia fixed in the normative acts is from 0.5 to 9.2 million roubles. The authors obtained estimates of material losses for the national economy due to the premature death of the average person as a result of emergency situations and for the individual household — they amount to 31.7 and 7.9–10.5 million roubles respectively (in 2017 prices). The authors also provided estimates of the value of the life of the average person in Russia, obtained on the basis of sociological surveys conducted in 2017. The average value of human life in Russia, obtained by methods of sociology, is 5.2 million roubles; the median value is 1.4 million roubles. The article presents the author’s method of assessing the value of human life, taking into account the material and moral damage caused to the family of the deceased, built on the balance of average life expectancy, per capita final consumption, and satisfaction of the population of different countries with their lives. As an equivalent of people’s satisfaction with their lives, the authors also used data on the level of domestic violence in society and the balance of migration flows, both at the national and regional levels. Within the framework of this method, the value of the life of the average person is the average increase in the level of individual consumption, necessary to restore a normal level of satisfaction with their lives in conditions of increased mortality and reduction of the average life expectancy. The article presents also the author’s calculations performed by this method for different groups of countries. It is shown that the total value of human life in the world as a whole is 4.6–4.7 million uS dollars in 2011 prices. In the group of countries with per capita consumption of more than 10 thousand uS dollars the value of human life reaches 18.5 million dollars per year. In the group of countries with incomes below this mark, the value of human life reaches 0.5–1.9 million dollars. According to the authors, in Russia, the “value” of human life should be 51–61 million roubles in the prices of 2017 (about 1 million uS dollars depending on the official exchange rate). The results of the study of the quantitative assessment of the value of human life in Russia are correlated with the conclusions about the social need for just compensation of the damage suffered by the families of the victims of natural, man-made and other emergencies.

The current practice of foreign currency control in Russia is based on the mechanisms that were formed during the period of the Soviet administrative and command economy. The approaches applied in Russia to foreign currency regulation and foreign currency control (repatriation requirements, closed list of operations for crediting funds to foreign accounts) create barriers for the Russian business and citizens, significantly complicating the procedure for their foreign economic activity. At the same time, the existing restrictions, in conditions when the requirements for the sale of a part of foreign currency earnings and other restrictions on the movement of capital are not applied, do not ensure the achievement of macroeconomic goals, which are laid down in the preamble of the act “On foreign currency regulation and foreign currency control”. The foreign currency act in Russia does not currently ensure the achievement of the goals for which it was adopted. In practice, the act solves the tax objectives and the tasks of combating the legalization of criminal revenue. Developed countries and members of the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) do not use similar mechanisms to control the movement of funds. At the same time, foreign countries are actively developing instruments to control cross-border cash flows within the framework of legislation on combating money laundering and financing of terrorism, as well as in the framework of improving the mechanisms of international exchange of financial information for tax purposes. The authors propose a reform of the current foreign currency regulation aimed at the abolition of currency restrictions and the development of alternative mechanisms for controlling the cross-border movement of funds by improving the international exchange of tax information, including automatic one, as well as improving the effectiveness of measures to combat money laundering in international trade.

The authors put forward and consistently proved the hypothesis that changes in the structure of international trade (the development of electronic commerce, the active implementation of electronic cross-border payments), its legal regulation (the WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation and the Framework Agreement on Paperless Cross-Border Trade, the entry into force of the Customs Code of the Eurasian Customs union) determine the need for changes in the paradigm of control and supervision activities in the sphere of charging, paying and collecting customs payments. We concluded that the tools introduced by the Federal Customs Service and the Federal Tax Service (electronic tracking of goods, electronic information exchange between tax and customs authorities, integrated information resource on international trade operators) are effective. The authors also present the results of the analysis of the economic effect of changes in the legal regulation of the accrual, payment, collection of customs payments, expressed in the growth of additional accrued and additional collected payments. Based on the analysis of the system of customs and tariff regulation, of the dynamics of the rates of the unified Customs Tariff of the EEu, and of the law enforcement practices, the authors formulated areas of risk that include the lack of uniform application of customs legislation and the strong influence of WTO law. The research carried out by the authors made it possible to forecast directions for improving the legal regulation and administration of the charging, paying and collecting customs payments. It includes: improving the unified mechanism of customs and tax administration, as well as foreign currency control based on the creation and application of integrated information technologies; implementation of international standards developed under the World Customs Organization; the existence of prerequisites for the possibility of payment of import customs duties and taxes after the release of goods for conscientious operators; redistribution of functions of customs and tax authorities (leaving control over the payment of import customs duty in the competence of customs authorities, with the possible transfer of control over the payment of indirect taxes (VAT and excise) payable in respect of imported goods).

The authors assess the impact of the emotional tonality of bitcoin news on its exchange rate. In particular, we studied the hypothesis of the impact of the readability index of the news text on the volatility of bitcoin. Despite the fact that excessive volatility threatens bitcoin not to become a successful currency, many scientists are interested in the determinants of such volatility. Factors such as speculative investments or the attention of the society are the drivers of the volatility of the exchange rate of bitcoin. In this regard, the question of studying the impact of news on the bitcoin exchange rate is relevant. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the emotional tonality of bitcoin news on its exchange rate. The empirical base of the study was quite extensive since it includes more than 1330 news from the Thomson Reuters information base for the period from 19.08.2011 to 16.08.2016 on the bitcoin market. The research methodology includes the sentiment analysis conducted by using the dictionary MacDonald and Loughran and also the analysis of the interdependence of time series-based causal analysis using the test of Granger causation. We present three hypotheses about the impact of news on the bitcoin exchange rate. During the study, two of them were confirmed. We proved the first hypothesis that the negative news had a more significant impact than positive ones, taking into account the five time-lags. The second hypothesis about the impact of positive tonality in the news on the bitcoin exchange rate, using the Granger test for causation, was not confirmed, since the positive values of this test were obtained in two time-lags out of five. We can confirm that the third hypothesis was proved — the high readability index has an impact on the bitcoin volatility for the entire studied period, taking into account all five time-lags. Thus, the assumption about the impact of the emotional tonality of news on the bitcoin exchange rate can be confirmed.

Efficient management of the companyэs floating capital provides an opportunity to create its value by reducing the need for additional financing, increasing profitability, improving liquidity and increasing the efficiency of operations. Floating capital acts as a lever of value creation for owners. An effective model of the management of floating capital allows the company to gain a competitive advantage and increase shareholder wealth. The relevance of our study is due to the need for quality management of the short-term company’s activities to achieve its maximum performance. The purpose of our research was the identification of the nature of the relationship between the components of floating capital and the performance of the Russian companies. The object of the research was the floating capital of the Russian medium and large size companies, analyzed for the period from 2011 to 2016.
The subject of the research was a set of floating capital management processes aimed at achieving the company’s strategic goals. To substantiate the relationship between management of the floating capital and the indicator of company’s performance, we used the following metrics: ROA ratio, reflecting the profitability of total assets, as well as indicators of floating capital — the financial cycle of the company and its components: the period of turnover of debtor indebtedness, the period of turnover of accounts payable, and the period of inventory turnover. In order to simulate the relationship between the management of the floating capital and the company’s performance, the authors used the panel regression method to improve the efficiency of the estimates. In order to obtain applied conclusions, the authors built models with fixed and random effects and used cluster standard errors to reduce the impact of data autocorrelation. Based on the study, the authors proved that there is a significant inverse relationship between the length of the financial cycle of the company and the effectiveness of its activities. There was an inverse relationship between the period of accounts payable turnover and the performance of the company. With the rise of the period of turnover of accounts receivable, the performance of the company falls. An inverse relationship was also found between the period of the company’s inventory turnover and the performance of its activities. The results obtained in the course of the research are of great practical value for the management and strategic development of the company. The results of the research can be used in proper management decisions in the field of floating capital. A competent management policy of the company’s floating capital allows for efficient allocation of the company’s resources to improve the quality of its activities, keeping a balance between the predicted risks and performance.

At the present, the success of a credit institution is possible only if it can organize effective work with distressed assets. They can be managed through a system of key performance indicators, which allows decomposition of the goals of the organizational unit to specific, measurable indicators. The purpose of this article is a presentation of key performance indicators (KPI), grounded on the formation of the basic principles of management of distressed assets, the methodological approaches to their assessment and calculations, and also formulas for the calculation of specific KPIs. My research was conducted using the methods of theoretical knowledge, logical methods and methods of comparative analysis. First, I have identified the main signs of the problem of the consumers’ indebtedness, as well as a list of documents on the basis of which it is possible to conclude that the assets are distressed. Secondly, I have outlined the main tools for working with the bank’s distressed assets, implemented in the framework of the bank’s strategies of action. Thirdly, I identified key performance indicators of operations with distressed assets of the bank, methodological approaches to their evaluation, the sources for the calculation of the key performance indicators of operations with distressed assets of the bank, as well as the basic formulas by which one can calculate the necessary components of the KPI. The use of the proposed KPIs will allow the Bank to solve strategic and tactical (operational) tasks in the field of working with distressed assets, as well as to achieve the growth of the quality of work with distressed debts. The KPIs proposed in this article can be introduced into the system of assessing the activities of the division as a whole and its managers for working with distressed debts and can become the basis for the system of staff incentives.

The article is devoted to the study of the degree of sensitivity of the Russian economy to exogenous shocks from the external environment. Indicators of the dynamics of foreign markets are changes in the global market of raw materials, financial markets of developed countries, and the propensity of foreign investors to risk. The topic of our study is relevant against the background of the current key risks for the world economy and financial system: uncertainty of the global energy market prospects due to the growth of oil production in the united States; normalization of monetary policy by developed countries, which in the future can provoke capital outflow from emerging markets; the threat of global protectionism. The article describes the potential consequences of these events for the world economy and financial system. The study uses statistical data on the real and financial sectors of the Russian economy, as well as foreign markets for the period 2002–2018. The parameters of external market conditions are world trade conditions, the volatility of the global stock and currency markets, the level of business activity in the Eurozone region, and the degree of risk and uncertainty in emerging markets. The research methodology is based on Bayesian structural vector autoregressions. The graphs of the impulse response function allow us to determine the direction of the key parameters of the Russian economy (industry, inflation, exchange rate, and sovereign risk premium) in response to changes in external environment. The contribution of external shocks to the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is determined on the basis of the decomposition of the error variance of the model endogenous variables forecast. Our analysis confirmed the significant dependence between the dynamics of the key indicators of the Russian economy and the external markets. The author concludes that the inflation targeting regime and the policy of budget rules have a positive impact on the protection of the Russian economy from global risks.