The paper aims at the empirical investigation of the impact of the market cycle on the value relevance of book values and earnings in the banking industry. unlike most prior studies, the paper directly examines the influence of cyclical fluctuations in investors’ sentiments on the informativeness of these key accounting variables. Moreover, the study enhances the literature on the value relevance of banks’ financial reporting by providing an empirical evidence from the emerging capital market ofPoland. The examined sample covers all domestically-based commercial banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange over the period 1997–2016. The empirical evidence based on the analyses of parametric and non-parametric correlation and regression indicates a significant impact of the market cycle on the value relevance of book values which markedly increases (decreases) in the periods of bull (bear) market. In contrast, the informativeness of earnings seems to be driven primarily by factors other than investors’ sentiments. The results of the research indicate that the course of the market cycle is partially driving the fluctuations of the value relevance of book values of equity and net earnings in the Polish banking industry. There is a need for further investigation of the impact of market cycles on the value relevance of accounting data, not only in the context of the banking sector.

The article deals with the problem of modeling and forecasting the revocation of the bank’s license depending on the volatility of macroeconomic variables. The urgency of this problem is due to the following reasons. First, the Central Bank of theRussian Federationtoday pursues a policy of clearing the banking sector from unscrupulous participants in the banking market and from banks with weak economic positions. Secondly, the strong fl in the values of macroeconomic variables over the previous few years affect the financial condition of the bank, which is the basis for the decision to revoke the license. The purpose of the article is to develop a model for assessing the probability of revocation of a license from the Russian bank on the basis of its public financial statements, taking into account the volatility of macroeconomic variables. The author has developed a logistic regression model for assessing the probability of revocation of a license from the Russian bank taking into account the volatility of macroeconomic variables. To level the effect of multicollinearity in the data, we use RIDGE modification of the logistic regression model with a certain algorithm for setting the penalty factor. The model is based on the data of official public bank statements, data on macroeconomic variables, and data on license revocations by the Bank of Russia as well. To aggregate the information and bring it into a single format, an information and logical model for the formation of the information base of the study is developed. The obtained model for assessing the probability of revocation of a license from the Russian bank has a high prognostic ability. The hypothesis of statistical difference of coefficients from zero is accepted when indicators of volatility of macroeconomic variables were at significance levels of 0.01 and above. The author concluded that the volatility of macroeconomic variables has a significant impact on the fi condition of the bank. The Bank of Russia takes this into account when deciding whether to revoke a license, as the fi condition is one of the key aspects. This approach can be used by the bank’s counterparties in assessing its reliability. 

In this article, we analyzed the growth of many worlds and Russian financial indicators observed in 2017. Despite signs of improvement in the economic, monetary and financial sectors, the situation remains difficult and many risks still remain.

The aim of the study is to formulate the main trends of the past year, giving grounds for a critical analysis of some of the official Russian forecasts for 2018–2020.

In our analysis, we used economic and statistical research methods. The methodology consists of the collection and analysis of primary data, on the basis of which conclusions are drawn about a number of global trends. At the same time, it is taken into account that the study of the economic and financial history of the past year makes it possible to trace the positive evolution of many processes in the world and the Russian economy and finance. We chose for the analysis a number of indicators (real GDP growth, stock indices, exchange rates, key rates of central banks, etc.), which allowed to demonstrate clearly the improvement of the situation in the economy and finance of a number of countries in 2017 (including Russia). It is shown that the Russian economy demonstrates the connection with global trends. We also constructed the regression model for Russian inflation.

One of the main results of our analysis is the specification of some risks taking into account the peculiarities of the current global economic recovery and the high dependence of the Russian economy and finance on external factors. Our analysis is important for improving the forecasts for finance and the economy of theRussian Federationas a whole.

The research of many Russian and global indicators and trends shows that risks in the economy and finance of the Russian Federation may increase due to the potential global instability and new Western sanctions on Russia in 2018. This can occur given the expected continuation of the current policy of the Bank of Russia, and in defiance of some optimistic official forecasts. It is necessary to review the current monetary and fiscal policy in order to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors (including political ones).

One of the most important tasks to be solved in the context of the ongoing fourth industrial revolution is the preservation and multiplication of human capital of theRussian Federation. The problem of emigration of Russian citizens to other countries remained quite acute during 2000–2017, although the situation has undoubtedly improved compared to the last decade of the last century. This poses a threat to national security, as there are many economically active young people with a high level of education among the emigrants. Therefore, it is required a comprehensive study of these processes and the creation of conditions for the preservation of human capital inRussia.

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for assessing the economic losses of theRussian Federationas a result of emigration of citizens to other countries and to propose measures to reduce its scale.

As a methodological basis of the research, we used: system approach, statistical methods, methods of structuring information, correlation and regression analysis.

The authors developed a methodology for assessing the losses of the Russian economy in value terms as a result of emigration of citizens abroad. It is based on the determination of the “cost” of human life and the individualization of this indicator in accordance with the level of economic development of the host country and with the subjective factors of the emigrant, as well as in specifying the number of citizens who left the Russian Federation in accordance with the official data of foreign migration services. As a result of the calculations, it was determined that the losses of the Russian economy from this phenomenon for the period 2000–2017 amounted to more than 27 trillion rubles.

Despite the improvement of the economic and political situation, from 2000 to the present time, Russian citizens continued to leave their homeland, leaving it for permanent residence abroad. This phenomenon is causing serious damage to the Russian economy. Such a situation is unacceptable in the conditions of the country’s unfolding competition with other states for the positions of leaders in the new industrial revolution. It is necessary to carry out systematic work to reduce the scale of outgoing flows of international labour migration from Russia.

The article provides a comparative analysis of the volatility of the leading national fiat currencies and their transnational anonymous analogues, which received the slang name “cryptocurrency”.Volatility is the most important financial indicator in the management of financial flows, as a measure of the risk of using a financial instrument at a specified period of time. Cryptocurrency mining technology is available to the general public and has become an innovative phenomenon. The latest fi phenomena need to be investigated, so it is necessary to conduct a multilateral scientific analysis, identification and comparison of cryptocurrency with fi currency. The aim of this study is to obtain new estimates of cryptocurrency based on the use of tools such as GARCH-model, simple historical volatility (SHV) and developed by the author’s toolkit, which is based on the Chaikin method. The methodological basis of the research is logical, econometric, economic and statistical methods of analysis, technical and fundamental analysis, and method of scientific visualization. The calculated volatility estimates are based on the Central Bank’s data on currency rates and investigated using named three models. The article for the first time presents the results of comparison of volatility of the leading fiat currencies (uS dollar, euro, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen) and the most popular today so-called cryptocurrencies (bicoin, litecoin, ethereum, and monero). Estimation of volatility showed that the volatility of bitcoin is significantly higher than fiat money. In this regard, it is concluded that the recognition of cryptocurrency, in particular bitcoin, as a real money is premature, not only due to the lack of regulations of a certain cryptocurrency as a legal tender, but also on the grounds of violation of essential requirements for the properties of the currency, such as a low level of volatility.

Topic. The article presents the results of actuarial analysis of the newest and most controversial component of the Russian system of compulsory pension insurance — accrual one. The prospect of its further development is estimated. The effectiveness of this method of pension provision is assessed by the author from the point of view the role and degree of performance of the institutional functions of the state pension system (i.e., ensuring a decent level of material security of pensioners), and the possibility of achieving the targets formulated in 2012 in the government’s Strategy for the long-term development of the pension system of the Russian Federation.

Purpose. Development of economically reasoned justification of real financial relations between participants of the insurance pension system within the framework of individual-accrual models of pension provision.

Methodology. The main methodological feature and originality of this study is a multi-factor analysis, using methods of comparative analysis and actuarial forecasting of the whole set of conditions for the formation and implementation by insured persons of their pension rights in the individual-accrual model (both external to the pension system and internal as well), not carried out in other studies on this problem.

Results.The article presents the results of economicstudies of the national practice of formation and implementation of pension rights of workers in the framework of the individual-accrual pension insurance program. Those results can be used in substantiating the directions of reforming the accrual methods of pension provision:

• The degree of direct dependence of the pension system efficiency on external macroeconomic and demographic factors is proved.
• We formulated criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the accrual component of the pension system.
• It is given the characteristic and the main tasks of the accrual component of the compulsory pension insurance system.
• There are proposed measures to improve the functioning of the accrual component in the existing Russian reality and in the long term.

Conclusions. The accrual method of formation and realization of pension rights in specific long-term socioeconomic conditions does not allow the main categories of insured persons to form the level of pensions provided in the solidarity system, and also sharply increases the budgetary risks not only of the Russian Pension Fund (PFR), but also of the Federal budget.

The subject of the research is the study of Russian and international experience in the use of index insurance. It is revealed that parametric insurance is used both in developed and developing insurance markets. The aim of the study is to propose an index insurance model based on two parameters: temperature and precipitation — with the possibility of using this model for regional index insurance programs inRussia. The authors put forward a hypothesis that the model of index insurance of crops against drought can be based on two parameters for a more accurate determination of the amount of insurance premiums. The study is built on the basis of statistical data from 85 subjects of theRussian Federationon precipitation, temperature, yields for the period from 1996 to 2015.

We used the method of correlation analysis to select the region for the model. To test the model, one region was chosen —Bryanskregion, where the greatest correlation between the parameters was found. The study proved the economic feasibility of index insurance model based on one subject of theRussian Federationin comparison with the insurance program with state support. It is proved that the calculation of the model with two parameters has a lower level of risk than the calculation of the model with one parameter. It makes possible reduction of the net premium rate and competition with insurers programs drawn up with the support of the state. The authors highlight the existing problems of insurance with state support and identified the need to create regional insurance programs for various crops to protect against catastrophic risks, such as drought, frost, floods and others on the basis of meteorological data. We conclude that the proposed model makes possible to expand the insurance of farmers’ risks, creation of several programs with different sets of insurance risks, and reduction of the risk of fraud by more accurate calculation of the insurance premium.

The article critically examines the most frequently used in the scientific community the fundamental laws of price formation in a market economy. The author also reveals the incompleteness and lack of complexity in the interpretation of the Marxist direction of the labor theory of value by the subjects of the state economy of the Soviet period. New questions about the role of prices in global market processes, paradigms and definitions of pricing arise in the ongoing radical changes in geo-economics.

In the complex interconnection to explore the role, importance, degree of dominance and signs of dominance of the most important basic laws of economic development and factors in the formation and change of prices in the dialectical relationship with changing conditions.

The main method of research is the dialectical approach by which the author demonstrates on models the action, interaction, mutual influence of the fundamental laws of the market and the conditions underlying changes in market conditions and, consequently, prices. The fundamental components of the price allocated by the author are investigated as categorical oppositions.

The author identifies financial and marketing components in the concept of price, reveals and substantiates the features and conditions that determine the predominance of one of these components. The article shows how under the influence of the laws of the market at different stages of the product’s life cycle in the changing of the entropy of prices is established a vibrational mode associated with the center of swing of the pendulum.

Established a legitimate regime of prices’ entropy as the resultant of the interests of the parts of the converging it, determine the trajectory of price fluctuations and gradually comply the neighboring modes (transients) with the most common key law of pricing. To this conclusion, the author comes, exploring the interaction of various laws in the market processes of recent decades.

The problem of the functioning of the integrated financial system in modern conditions of uncertainty is aggravated by insufficient development of theoretical bases and difficult practice of its complex use. In the article, the financial system is considered as an integral part of the economy. The study of the spiral of social development defined as a closed formation allows building a model of the economic system, which is the basis for the formation of a coherent financial system with the internal structure and parameters. The development of an evolutionary-economic model based on the spiral of social development contributes to the complete description of the characteristics of the evolutionary financial system. The formation of the virtual body of the evolutionary model of the holistic financial system is a basis for the application of the principles of mathematical modeling.

The purpose of the article is to develop an evolutionary model of a holistic financial system with a complete life cycle.

The research is based on the methods of evolutionary analysis and synthesis, classical works in the field of philosophy, cybernetics, economics, and finance. General scientific and special methods of research are applied, including deduction and induction. A holistic evolutionary economic-mathematical model is developed. This allows to formulate a general idea of the financial system and to use it in theory and practice as a single methodological complex.

The synthesis of knowledge of the theory of finance within the stages of the life cycle of the economic environment promotes the fuller use of the studied science, expands the possibilities of its mathematical modeling and forecasting in the financial sphere.

The article is devoted to the topical problem of the development of agro-industrial complex, in particular, the development of the novelty model of agricultural lending. Experience of crediting of agriculture inRussiasince 1992 till now is considered. We provide a critical approach to the assessment of the current system of agricultural credit, which requires the presence of another economic incentive — the budget subsidy.

Our purpose was a comprehensive author’s study of the problems of applying the practice of preferential agricultural lending, as well as the development of proposals aimed at improving the system of state support for the agricultural credit system.

The methodological tools of the research include comparative methods of analysis, as well as analytical methods of cognition.

We carried out the analysis of the models of crediting of farmers applied for the specified period and the main problems in practice of their application. As the most effective model of farmer’s lending defined “fund” model, used from 1997 to 2001. The main drawback of this system is the fragmentation of property interest in the subject of agriculture in a single loan obligation. The author developed a new system of agricultural lending, based on the “fond” model of the 90s. Its distinctive feature is dual targeting — for in economic entities (small and large businesses) and credit institutions (banks and credit cooperatives), while at the same time with maintaining a high level of state control (which is provided by a single source of credit resources — the state).

The results of the study can be used in the development of both individual credit measures of state support for agricultural producers, and in the preparation of the State program of development of agriculture and regulation of markets of agricultural products, raw materials and food.

The article deals with the problem of transformation of business models of companies, which has become relevant for many of them in connection with the development of information technology and the emergence of real opportunities to include final consumers in the value chain. The features of this process for different types of companies are studied. The author analyzed 65 academic articles examining transformations of business models of particular companies. The analyzed companies were classified by two features: the type of economic interaction and the type of production. This makes possible to divide them into four groups. The author analyzes the problems, goals, and objectives of research for each of the four types of companies, as well as the scientific theories on which their authors rely.

The purpose of the article is to identify the particularities of different types of companies, which are faced with the task of transforming business models, what, in turn, would allow companies to involve in the value chain of new members, more effectively create, deliver and withdraw value, as well as redistribute it among the rest of the participants.

Content analysis is used to analyze academic articles published between 2010 and 2017, which are available in the databases of scientific citation Scopus and Web of Science. As a theoretical basis, we used service-dominant logic, Chesbrough and Rosenbloom’s concept of open innovation, Zott and Amit’s concept of action system and a number of others.

The article concludes that Vargo and Lusch’s concept of service-dominant logic is the fundamental theoretical basis for most studies on business models and the theory of joint value creation. At the same time, depending on the type of company and the sector of the economy in which company acts, the practical problems faced by the company also vary, as well as the possible options for their solution. It is concluded that improving the business model of the organization, the researcher needs to take into account the business environment and the specifics of the sector.