The paper examines the impact of the inflation targeting policy as a basic component of the government’s general anti-inflationary measures on economic growth and the structure of the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to identify the impact of targeting policy in Russia on the rate of economic growth and the structure of the economy, represented by aggregated sectors — manufacturing and transactional raw materials. The research methodology consists of empirical-statistical structural, index methods of analysis, econometric modeling, reduced to the construction of factor models by type of production functions. Taking into account these methods, an algorithm has been developed to assess the impact of price dynamics and its targeting on macroeconomic dynamics and structure of the economy. Following this algorithm allowed, on the one hand, to give measurable estimates of the impact of consumer and industrial prices on general inflation in the country, and of inflation itself on GDP dynamics, on the other hand, to determine the degree of deformation of the structure of the Russian economy under the influence of inflation targeting policy. The main result of the study is that the large role of the transactional raw material sector in generating inflation and the fact that the introduction of targeting as a method of inflation suppression policy fixes the structure of the economy, slowing down development, which also affects growth towards its slowdown, is confirmed. Thus, a moderately restrictive monetary policy slows down growth and deforms the economic structure. The prospect of applying the results is that a change in inflation targeting policy, as well as an approach that assesses the impact of price dynamics on economic growth and its structure, which should lead to the justification of flexible ranges of inflation targets and the targeting of nominal GDP as a policy goal, taking into account the necessary change in the sectoral economic structure. In theoretical terms, future research on the adsorption of the money supply by the economic structure and determining the impact of such absorption on price dynamics is important.

The article is devoted to the study of trends in the development of the Russian stock market in the context of international economic sanctions. The purpose of the study is to make forecasts of the volatility of the Russian stock market using a scenario approach. Statistical data of the Moscow Stock Exchange were used for calculations. The authors have made a forecast of the volatility of the stock exchange market of the Russian Federation. The basis of the forecast calculations is the dynamics of the Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX), taken as a key indicator of the Russian organized securities market, for the period from June 2013 to July 2022. Based on the basic historical dynamics of the Moscow Stock Exchange Index, negative (international economic sanctions are being tightened) and positive (implies the easing and/or lifting of some sanctions) scenarios for the development of the stock market of the Russian Federation are compiled. The scientific novelty is the authors’ assessment of the convergence of the volatility forecast under negative and positive scenarios to a certain level of volatility in 2023. The results of the calculations showed that under different scenarios of the situation, volatility tends to the same value at different assumed values of the Moscow Exchange Index, which allowed us to draw a new and practically significant conclusion that over time the economy of the Russian Federation stabilizes regardless of the tightening or easing of international economic sanctions — this may be due to the implementation of the country has a policy of import substitution, the formation of national production in most areas of the economy and the development of the domestic market. The work carried out by the authors contributes to the development of theoretical and applied economics in terms of making forecasts for the development of the stock market and using the results of forecasting to make economically sound decisions.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the market reaction to COVID-19 and the policy response in the ASEAN stock market. The subjects of this study are companies located in ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam) as many as 2349 companies. The basic methodology of this research uses the event study method using CAR (Cumulative Abnormal Return) as a measure of market reaction. We also regressed the effect of firm characteristics (SIZE, ROA, LEV, CASH, AGE) on market reaction. According to the paper’s results, the ASEAN stock market reacted negatively to the announcement of COVID-19 cases and deaths. In this condition, the markets in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam had the worst reactions to the pandemic outbreak. Moreover, the market negatively reacted to the policy response emphasizing the spread of this disease. We also find that several sectors also provided a negative reaction to COVID-19 and the policy response in the ASEAN stock market. In addition, the company’s characteristics significantly influenced the encouragement of market reactions to the pandemic and regulations. Practical implications were provided for policymakers regarding the need to consider market conditions in interventions in the spread of the health crisis. Investors should also consider the characteristics involved in handling the COVID-19 pandemic.

The investing landscape has undergone a significant shift. Investors are interested in stocks that not only increase shareholder  wealth  but  also  give  high  priority to  environmental, social, and  governance  issues. The  purpose  of the study is to examine the  presence  of  a  calendar  effect  on  the  BSE  sustainability  indices. The  daily  closing prices  of  the  BSE  CARBONEX, BSE  GREENEX, BSE 100, BSE  Sensex, and  Nifty have  been  collected. The  study is using various methods like descriptive statistics, the unit root test, the day of the week return, the ordinary least squares method (OLS), and the GARCH (1, 1) model. It  is  clear  from  the  study results  that  sustainability index returns follow the pattern of the BSE 100 and Sensex. There is a high positive and statistically significant Tuesday effect during the full sample period and period II. The GARCH (1, 1) model indicates there is a significant Monday effect on all indices. The result obtained in this paper is useful to investors to frame their investment strategy, for academicians to study the performance of the indices for different periods, and for business people to know the trend and tendencies.

State (municipal) financial control (SFC) and budget monitoring are mechanisms to minimize various types of violations and, as a result, improve the efficiency of the use of budget funds. In this regard, it is extremely important to have an objective assessment of the effectiveness of these mechanisms themselves. The subject of the research is the activity of SFC bodies in the Russian Federation. The purpose is to form a system for evaluating the efficiency of SFC and budgetary monitoring in the Russian Federation. Methods of synthesis, analysis and classification were used in the paper. The analysis of both theoretical and practical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of SFC is conducted. The Federal Treasury’s response measures are systematized with the aim of informing stakeholders about potential risks associated with various violations. The definitional content of “effectiveness and efficiency” in budgetary monitoring is revealed. The author’s interpretation of the definition of “efficiency” in SFC is proposed. The subsystems, elements and structure of the system for evaluating the efficiency of SFC and budgetary monitoring have been determined. The novelty of the study consists in the identification of three subsystems of the system for evaluating the efficiency of the SFC: the subsystem of expert assessments; a formalized subsystem of indicators based on the consideration of the efficiency of each stage of the activity of the SFC body; and the subsystem of the efficiency of an employee of the SFC body. The system for evaluating the efficiency of budgetary monitoring includes a one-factor component based on the ratio of the number of pieces of information sent to customers and contractors about the response measures taken and the decisions received from them. In terms of developing new theoretical and methodological approaches for evaluating the efficiency of SFC and budget monitoring, the study performed improved the theory and practice of public finances.

Personal income tax (PIT) is one of the budget-forming taxes in the Russian Federation, therefore, an important direction of tax planning is the  assessment  of  risks  arising  from  both  tax  agents  (at  the  micro  level)  and  the state represented by tax authorities (at the macro level). The subject of the study is tax risks on personal income tax, and the purpose is to develop proposals for their assessment and reduction. Objectives: to classify tax risks according to  personal  income  tax;  to  clarify  the  quantitative  characteristics  of  tax  risks;  to  identify  directions of their decline. The relevance of the study is  dictated  by  the  need  to  study  theoretical  issues  and  practical aspects of the emergence of tax risks on personal income tax. The main methods of study are systemic, logical, theoretical cognition, scientific abstraction. The results  of  the  study include  the  following:  identification  of  the main types of tax risks for personal income tax and the development of a tax risks matrix for their assessment depending on residence, type of contract, amount of payment, court decisions, taking into account the possibility of identification, determination of amount of risk (arrears and penalties as well as  intention). Conclusions: in  the paper developed proposals for the assessment and reduction of tax risks under personal income tax: on the basis of the classification of tax risk (by subject, by basis of occurrence, by elements of taxation, by connection with tax checks, by types of risks, by the time of identification of tax risk, as well as taking into account the  regional specifics) the amount of possible tax risk is calculated on the example of specific income  (premium, financial assistance, gift) a tax risk matrix has been developed for practical application, which will enable to assess and rank tax schemes aimed at reducing tax obligations under personal income tax.

The purpose of the study is to identify the impact of the tax system on investment in equity capital by analyzing the six types of taxes that affect the activities of firms. The data for the independent variables (tax classes in Nigeria) are obtained from the Federal Internal Revenue Service, while the data for the dependent variable (equity investment) are obtained from the Statistical  Bulletin  of  the  Central  Bank of  Nigeria. The  necessary statistical  methodologies are used to examine the impact of various tax classes on equity investment from 2011 to 2020. According to the research, capital gains tax and  gas  income  tax have  little  effect  on  equity investment. The  petroleum  profit  tax and corporate income tax have a considerable detrimental impact on equity investment. On  the  plus  side, value added tax and education tax have a significant favorable impact on equity investment. These results are one-of-akind and precisely depict the genuine nature of the country’s tax system and its impact on investment. As a result, the research proposes a tax shift to lessen the tax burden on enterprises in order to stimulate equity investment, which will increase firms’ capital base for the purpose of business expansion and growth of the nation’s economic structure.

The use of modern innovative technologies raises tax administration to a qualitatively new level of development, which determines the relevance of the study. At the same time, the digital transformation of the tax system should be based on classical principles of taxation, meet the interests  of  tax authorities  and  taxpayers, and  prevent  tax risks. The purpose of the  study is  to  identify trends  of  tax administration  in  Russia  and  to  develop  a  forecast  of its innovative development from the standpoint of classical principles of taxation. To achieve this  goal, it  was necessary to solve the following tasks: problem statement; review of the main information technologies used by the Federal Tax Service of Russia; study of information exchange of data; determination of the impact of innovative development of tax administration on the activities of economic entities. In preparing the article, the authors used methods of analysis and synthesis of  empirical  data  of  information  platforms, as  well  as  a  systematic approach and a method of interpreting the results during scientific research. The novelty of the paper lies in the author’s view of the prospects for the innovative development of tax administration. The results of the study proved the high efficiency of the digital technologies used. It is shown that the innovative development of administration strengthens tax control, increases budget revenues, increases the role of the state in the field of taxation. It is concluded that innovative tax administration significantly affects the behavior of taxpayers, causes their  concern about the growth of tax risks. The completed forecast of innovative development of tax administration showed a high probability of changing the status of an organization to an individual entrepreneur, loss of tax revenues from developing e-commerce.

The research investigates the trend of containing the impact of external economic shocks on some of the financial variables in countries exporting primary commodities, especially oil — and Iraq is selected as the sample in this research. The purpose of this research is to predict the role of fiscal policy in the context of the impact of external economic shocks on macroeconomic variables. The research adopts the standard methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model test to find the co-integration of the public spending model. The results of the study reveal that a shock in public spending leads to an increase in money supply, inflation and aggregate consumption. The conclusion indicates that there is an equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model (money supply, inflation rate, total consumption, the dummy variable, and government spending). The research’s main recommendation include the diversification of the base of the Iraqi economy and create an economy characterized by a gradual increase in the contribution to other economic sectors. This contributes to the formation of the gross domestic product and the diversification of the structure of public revenues. It also prepares for the change of the Iraqi economy from the rentier economy into the market economy. The aim of the research is to reach findings that prevent the Iraqi economy and the public budget from sudden fluctuations in oil revenues.

Sustainable development of the national economy based on the transformation of the financial and economic behavior of consumers is one of the priorities of the socio-economic policy of the Russian Federation. In this regard, the formation of responsible financial and economic consumer behavior is a leading factor in achieving the sustainable development goals. This paper focuses on the update of the problem and the assessment of the impact of consumer financial and economic behavior factors on the achievement of sustainable development goals. The purpose of the study is to systematize consumer behavior factors and identify promising directions for achieving sustainable development goals based on the formation of responsible financial and economic behavior of consumers. The subject of the study is the transformation of consumer behavior and its impact on achieving sustainable development in Russia. Research methods include analysis and synthesis, analogy and generalization, compare and contrast, induction and deduction, correlation coefficients, rating assessment. As the main results of the study, it is necessary to highlight the substantiation of the relationship between the sustainable development goals and the financial and economic consumer behavior; grouping of consumers depending on age and attitude to purchases (generation X, Y, Z) to determine the reasons and motives of the transition to responsible behavior; assessment of the achievement of sustainable development goals based on an integral indicator; ranking of the impact factors of consumer behavior on the per capita GDP index based on the correlation coefficient; identification of priority directions for the formation of responsible consumer behavior. An important conclusion is made about the transformation of the financial and economic consumer behavior in the direction of increasing the impact of waste disposal of production and consumption; digitalization of households, investments in environmental protection, income differentiation and dynamics of real wages of the population on the per capita GDP index.

The article is devoted to the assessment of the impact of demographic processes on the volume of expenses for the payment of old-age insurance pensions in the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to make a forecast of the volume of expenses of the Russian Social Fund budget for the payment of insurance old-age pensions for the period up to 2035, taking into account population fluctuations in 3 scenarios: optimistic, probable and pessimistic. The relevance of study is due is due to the influence of demographic processes on the pension system of the Russian Federation. The results obtained are new, they can be used in the practical activities of the state authorities of the Russian Federation, in the conduct of scientific research and in the educational process, etc. The authors used a multifactorial dynamic model in the form of a system of stochastic differential equations with parameters, and numerical calculations were carried out on a discrete approximation of this model. The authors revealed that with a pessimistic version of the population forecast, the volume of budget expenses of the Pension and Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation for the payment of insurance pensions (excluding early appointment) for 2023–2035 will increase by 56.67% (which in monetary terms is 4.22 trillion rub.); with a probable one — by 60.39% (which in monetary terms is 4.50 trillion rub.); with a pessimistic one — by 66.02% (which in monetary terms is 4.93 trillion rub.). It is important to note that any of the forecast, due to the population decline in the forecast period, assumes an increase in the volume of expenses for the payment of insurance pensions at rates below inflation (the latter, according to the minimum estimates of the authors of the article, will amount to 74.76%).

The development of financial technologies in modern conditions has contributed to the active use of digital financial instruments — cryptocurrencies — in international settlements. The availability of up-to-date information on digital currency volatility will help crypto market participants predict the consequences of their transactions. The purpose of this work is to construct a new measure of the volatility of financial assets, in particular, cryptocurrencies, the euro and the direct exchange rate of the ruble. In order to obtain this measure, an analysis of known volatility measures was carried out, requirements for the measure of volatility of a financial asset were formulated, and, as a result, the volatility of the main cryptocurrencies, the euro and the direct exchange rate of the ruble, was assessed by the levels of the time series of monthly quotations of these assets in the time interval from 1.01.2022 to 1.04.2023. The scientific novelty in the paper is a reasonable new measure of absolute volatility. The main conclusions of the study are: 1) the measure of absolute volatility constructed in this paper has the dimension of the asset value and measures the part of the asset value that is generated by uncertainty in the values of its profitability; 2) Bitcoin Cash is the most volatile cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has the least volatility among cryptocurrencies; 3) the volatility of the direct exchange rate of the ruble (the price of the US dollar in rubles) is about half the volatility of Bitcoin; 4) out of competition in terms of volatility is the euro quote (the euro price in dollars) — 10% in a year and a half.

The research aims to look at the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between Brazil’s accumulated international reserves and economic growth from 1989 Q1 through 2021 Q4. For empirical investigation, this study employed econometric procedures such as the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests, the linear Granger causality test, Johansen’s cointegration test, the BDS test, and the nonlinear Granger causality test proposed by Hiemstra and Jones. The study concluded that there is a bidirectional linear and non-linear causality between foreign exchange reserve and economic growth. This study fills the gap in the literature by exploring the nonlinear relationship between international reserves and economic growth, while earlier studies primarily explored linear relationships. Foreign trade policymakers can utilize the model developed here to formulate applicable policies about foreign exchange reserves. Based on the findings, the study proposes that Brazil can accrue foreign reserves if surplus assets are invested in alternate sources such as economic infrastructure projects and regional infrastructure development.

Corporate environmental responsibility (CER) plays an important role in the sustainable policies of firms and affects the behaviors of managers. For U.S. listed firms for 2010–2021, this study aims at evaluating the sustainability of investment through corporate environmental responsibility (CER) and corporate social responsibility (CSR), the complementarily or substitutability between (CER) and the CEO shareholding, and the impact on corporate financial performance (CFP).The results show that CSR efforts create a good image of the company, which subsequently enhances the credibility of its corporate environmental responsibility projects. Also, the results show the corporate environmental responsibility of U.S listed companies has a positive impact on performance. Specifically, the CEO’s shareholding serves as a mediator between corporate environmental responsibility and CFP. Moreover, the paper finds substitutability between CEO shareholding and corporate environmental responsibility, so the more the shareholding CEO is reluctant to take the risk, the more they avoid investing in corporate environmental responsibility projects. This finding will reinforce the positive effect of corporate environmental responsibility on performance. A positive relationship was recorded between CFP and the combination between CSR and CER and between CFP and the combination between CER and CEO shareholding. Taken together, our evidence suggests that CER concerns could enhance the extent of managerial learning, especially for firms experiencing greater risks. Our paper provides new evidence for the role of CER in reducing corporate risk and further confirms the importance of the corporate environment by conducting a robustness test.

The purpose of this study is to identify whether financially constrained firms use trade credit (payables and receivables) as a channel to finance their operations. The previous literature mainly investigated the role of trade credit in various aspects of a firm’s performance. We argue that, since firms with limited financial capabilities usually have limited or no access to the long-term debt market, they can better be expected to rely on short-term financing, such as trade credit. We use Kaplan and Zingales index (KZ Index 1997) to measure the level of firms’ financial constraints. The fixed-effects panel regression methodology was applied to a sample of non-financial firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange over eleven years from 2009 to 2019. The results of this article show that financially constrained firms use trade credit as a financing channel for their operations. We further found that firms with higher profit margins use more trade credit while those that have higher assets turnover use fewer loans.

The Russian airline market for the first time since the sharp decline in passenger traffic in 2020 showed growth rates of revenue per passenger-kilometre in 2021. This indicates a step towards recovery after the biggest crisis the industry has seen in all of history. The purpose of the study is to assess the financial stability of the Russian air carriers for the last three years: 2019 (pre-COVID-19), 2020 (COVID-19) and 2021 (post-COVID-19), with the help of applying bankruptcy likelihood prediction models. The analysis was conducted for 4 airlines, each of them having a different business model that they follow (national flag carrier, low-cost carrier, ultra-low-cost carrier and regional carrier). The market positions of each airline were identified, highlighting the rapid growth of low-cost carriers, even during the COVID-19 crisis. The same cannot be said for full-service airlines, which have fallen the most in both profit and traffic. Calculations of bankruptcy models showed that low-cost airlines were more financially stable during the COVID-19 pandemic, while full-service air carriers experienced uncertainty during 2020 and only gradually recovered in 2021. These results coincide with other research regarding which business model is less vulnerable during crises, however this is very dependent on the region in which airlines operate in: both low-cost carriers and full-services airlines, according to other authors, show high financial sustainability. Such contradiction in the current research highlights the relevance of further analysis in this area to provide answers that are more concrete.

Historical data of the box office of Russian cinema is the object of research. The purpose  of  the  study  is  to determine the possibility of forecasting the cash fees of  the  film  project  at  an  early stage  in  the  production  of films, which is especially important due to withdrawal of foreign distributors from the Russian market. The analysis was carried out on data for the entire population (N = 1400) of Russian national films that were released from the beginning of 2004 to April 2022. These data are introduced into scientific circulation for the first time. The study used methods of evaluation of film projects based on historical profitability and classification of films by genres, directors, screenwriters. The result of the experiment on 7 machine learning and neural network models achieved an accuracy of 0.96 and ROC (AUC) = 0.98. The article provides conclusions about the directions for improving forecasting methods and conclusions about the limitations of the proposed approach. Taking into account the high volatility of the individual financial result of a film project, recommendations were made by the “portfolio” principle of investment, which opens the prospects of debt and equity financing of cinema using market financial instruments, issuance of bonds and shares by producers and distributors.

This research investigates the influence of sustainability reports and CAMEL ratios on Indonesian banks performance, utilizing secondary data from Indonesia’s publicly listed banks.The main purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between sustainability reports and CAMEL ratios in terms of impact on the performance of banks. Specifically, it aims to explore how sustainability practices affect bank performance, considering factors such as share price, profit per share, and overall growth. The relevance of this study is due to the development of the banking sector, in which factors that go beyond financial indicators, such as sustainable development, are becoming increasingly important. Assessment of the impact of sustainability practices along with established financial ratios, such as CAMEL, on bank performance provides novel insights into the contemporary evaluation of banking institutions. The examination of the Indonesian banking sector offers a unique perspective due to its dynamic economic and environmental context. This research uses a quantitative approach. Secondary data from the financial statements, annual reports and sustainability reports of several Indonesian banks were analysed. The study utilizes statistical analysis to explore correlations between sustainability disclosures, CAMEL ratios, and various performance indicators. The conclusions of this study confirm the pivotal role of sustainability reporting in influencing banks’ performance. Notably, environmental disclosures emerge as a crucial aspect positively associated with financial performance metrics. The alignment of sustainable practices with financial prudence is indicative of a proactive risk management approach adopted by banks, thereby contributing to their overall soundness and growth potential.