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Finance: Theory and Practice

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Vol 27, No 6 (2023)
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DIGITAL FINANCIAL ASSETS

6-16 726
Abstract

Currently, many central banks have begun to develop, study and introduce central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Due to the lack of sufficient experience, potential problems and risks’ research that can stimulate such financial innovations is relevant. The paper analyzes the projects for the creation of CBDC. The purpose of the paper is to identify unresolved aspects of the application of CBDC, and specific tasks include identifying the problems of the marketing of retail CBDC and the identification of the risks generated by them. The authors use general and special research methods, including comparative analysis and systematization. The article examines the prospects for digital ruble circulation in the Russian Federation. The use of CBDCs opens up enormous opportunities for the development of the digital economy, but their actual deployment is replete with risk. The article identifies the risks of the third form of national currency: technological (including environmental), economic, financial, social and legal. The authors consider that the widespread use of CBDC implies a transformation of the activities of national central banks, including a change in the role and functions of the national central bank, and provide several possible scenarios. The authors include among the unresolved problems that require solutions for the widespread practical use of digital securities: lack of understanding of the mechanism for transferring ownership during transfers from one user to another, clear prudential regulation, and effective management of big data analytics. Furthermore, the scope of regulation of the financial intermediation sector with regard to fintech innovations has not been defined; there is no system for exchanging data between different government agencies for a timely and more accurate assessment of potential risks; and the required number of specialists is not sufficient. The research can be important for both digital money consumers and authorities when the initiative to issue digital money in Russia is implemented.

DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

17-30 350
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to identify ways of short- and medium-term development of mineral production and metallurgy in the Russian Federation in the context of the policy of sanctions based on economic and mathematical modeling. The impact of sanctions on production in the basic sectors of the Russian economy, as well as the impact of import substitution on production in the short- and long-term is investigated. The research methodology includes panel regression with fixed effects and Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR model). The sanctions index is calculated based on a sentimental analysis of the texts of news publications. This index is based on the results of computer analysis of a set of thematic texts (evaluation of the frequency of words and phrases, correlation analysis, case analysis based on the BERT neural network). The paper demonstrates the importance of an industry-specific approach to the implementation of import substitution policy in view of its time horizon. For example, for the mineral products industry, the current import substitution policy can be considered effective in terms of the production index forecast, and for the metallurgical industry, the import substitution policy needs to be revised, since a sharp decline is expected in the short-term when the baseline scenario is implemented, and in the long-term production stabilizes without showing growth. As a result, the efficiency of the import substitution policy is considered to be completely dependent on the industry in which it is implemented. Fund intensity and other factors affecting industry cycles must be considered in order to forecast policy results. Import substitution also has a long-term positive impact.

31-43 256
Abstract

The subject of the study is the causal relationship between the co-integration of technological innovations and business activity, and their impact on the formation of macroeconomic dynamics in the short and long-term. The purpose of the paper is to propose a comprehensive approach to determining the conditions for the co-integration of technological innovations and business activity for their subsequent stimulation of economic growth. The practical examination of the impact of changes in the dynamics of complex indicators of creative development and commercial activity on economic growth is the research’s scientific contribution and novelty. Using vector error correction models, modular root testing models and other econometric methods, the author demonstrated that both business activity and innovation stimulate economic growth in the long-term. In the short-term, there are strong causal relationships, but they are not always homogeneous. The main conclusion is the fact that the results obtained by the author confirm the correctness of using the approach of determining the order of integration and the presence/absence of co-integration between indicators of innovative development, business activity and economic growth. The summary results confirm the existence of a close long-term equilibrium relationship between innovation, business activity and economic growth.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

44-53 352
Abstract

Missing observations in market data is a frequent problem in financial studies. The problem of missing data is often overlooked in practice. Missing data is mostly treated using ad hoc methods or just ignored. Our goal is to develop practical recommendations for treatment of missing observations in financial data. We illustrate the issue with an example of yield curve estimation on Russian bond market. We compare three methods of missing data imputation — last observation carried forward, Kalman filtering and EM–algorithm — with a simple strategy of ignoring missing observations. We conclude that the impact of data imputation on the quality of yield curve estimation depends on model sensitivity to the market data. For non-sensitive models, such as Nelson-Siegel yield curve model, final effect is insignificant. For more sensitive models, such as bootstrapping, missing data imputation allows to increase the quality of yield curve estimation. However, the result does not depend on the chosen data imputation method. Both simple last observation carried forward method and more advanced EM–algorithm lead to similar final results. Therefore, when estimating yield curves on the illiquid markets with missing market data, we recommend to use either simple non-sensitive to the data parametric models of yield curve or to impute missing data before using more advanced and sensitive yield curve models.

54-66 816
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the underwriter’s reputation on shaping the short- and long-term IPO success of small businesses. The paper uses IPO data from 2012 to 2020, three reputable proxy and event-time methodologies to analyze the company’s performance through market-adjusted excess returns, cumulative abnormal returns and buy & hold returns. Similarly, to mitigate common predispositions, use the calendar-time methodology, Fama-French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model with high and low reputational groups. The study revealed a significant positive impact of underwriters’ reputations on first-day returns and long-term performance. Overall, the results indicate that, in the longterm, IPOs of Indian small and medium-sized enterprises are over efficient with regard to reputation signals. On the contrary, the calendar-time method and multifactor model indicate the low long-term IPO effectiveness of the SME. According to the authors’ conclusion, this is the first study to assess the impact of underwriter reputation on business performance using several reputation indicators, the calendar time methodology, and the multi-factor model on the ICP’s Indian IPO platform.

BANK SECTOR

67-78 303
Abstract

The drivers of non-performing loans (NPL) and the possible effects of the institutional and business environments on the credit risk exposure of banks in the panel of BRICS countries and segregated models are analyzed in this paper. The purpose of the study is to identify the relationship between banking, macroeconomic and institutional factors of non-performing loans of banks at the BRICS level for the period 1996–2020. The panel ARDL approach is used for this purpose. The Panel Granger causality test is applied to verify the hypothesis of the relationship between economic development and NPLs. Panel co-integration tests examine the existence of a long-term link between the same two variables. The results of the study demonstrated that a decrease in the proportion of NPLs results from boosting performance metrics like the Z-score. Because the banking industry has more resources as a result of higher financial development and/or financial intermediation, the amount of NPLs is reduced. Finally, our study demonstrates how important the institutional environment is for raising the quality of bank credit. It was concluded that the low level of NPLs in BRICS countries was largely linked to more effective anti-corruption management, robust regulatory standards, increased application of the rule of law, freedom of speech and accountability.

79-88 298
Abstract

In response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–2009, international financial regulators tightened the regime of banking supervision in order to minimize systemic risks, strengthen banking sector resilience and ensure financial stability. Given the increased level of credit risks and the issue of liquidity in the banking sector, as well as the role of banks in promoting the dynamics of the macro-environment, the objectives of banking regulation, through their interrelationship, may conflict with one another, and the research of this phenomenon is the subject of this article. The academic literature excludes research that provides definitive evidence on whether post-crisis banking regulation reform has achieved each of the abovementioned goals, determining the relevance of our study. The scientific novelty is attributed to the principally different approach proposed by the authors in assessing the effectiveness of the post-crisis model of international banking regulation, which is based on the analysis of the interaction and contradictions of the objectives of modern regulatory policy. The purpose of the study is to identify the extent to which the objectives of the post-crisis regulatory model were achieved and to what extent regulatory efforts contribute to the reduction of systemic risks. To achieve the research objectives, the authors applied methods of statistical and comparative analysis, synthesis of factors underlying the post-crisis regulatory mechanism, systematization, generalization and forecasting. The authors analyzed the main elements of the regulatory reform, examined the dynamics of the banking sector, and assessed the impact of the reform on systemic risks and economic growth. The research results show that tighter supervisory standards strengthened bank stress resilience, reduced systemic risks, and had a limited impact on economic growth. The article concludes that the objectives of banking regulation actively interact, but do not conflict: a consistent transition to the new Basel III standards allows each objective to be achieved.

FINANCIAL SYSTEM

89-100 448
Abstract

The relevance of the research is confirmed by the fact that, with the widespread distribution of ecosystems as high-tech heirs of clusters and platforms, the issues of financing business ecosystems are rarely studied in the scientific literature and do not receive the necessary theoretical generalization. The purpose of the research is to systematize the available forms of financing in industrial business ecosystems within a united digital space. The objectives of this research are defined as clarifying the need to include financing functions in the toolkit of emerging industrial business ecosystems and revealing the possibilities of using selected financing methods. The methods of research, on the one hand, are based on the emerging theory of ecosystems, which develops both as a firm’s theory and as ecosystem management, and on the other hand, on a new concept that can be formulated as a fusion of finance, industrialization and digitalization. The results of the research show that there are several approaches to the organization of ecosystem finance. Ecosystems are reported to be equally susceptible to decentralized and centralized (traditional) financing, providing opportunities to create their own decentralized financial environment as well as collaborating with current cryptocurrency-based services. Several forms of financial organization in ecosystems have been identified: a) compensating costs by forming budgets for the creation and ongoing activities; b) attracting ecosystem participants’ own funds to various forms of lending (including on the basis of financial technologies). It is concluded that the development of financing instruments depends on three factors: 1) government policies to regulate the financial aspects of business ecosystems; 2) the efficiency of using the resources of ecosystem participants; 3) ecosystem interactions with supply chains. It is determined that a completely new theory of business ecosystem finance will be completed only after the exit from the experimental mode of financing business ecosystems.

COST ASSESSMENT

101-112 239
Abstract

The paper is devoted to the study of the issues of determining the estimated (marginal) cost of investment projects that are implemented within the framework of the IPA. The purpose of the study is to develop scientific and practical recommendations for determining the estimated (marginal) value of real estate objects created in the framework of investment projects implemented on the basis of the IPA. The paper is relevant because current regulatory documentation does not clearly define the concepts of estimated (marginal) cost of infrastructure objects, and there are no recommendations for their assessment, which leads to distortions of the cost base for obtaining subsidies and impacts the evaluation of the effectiveness of such projects. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the development of scientific and practical recommendations for determining the estimated (marginal) value of real estate objects created as part of an investment project implemented on the basis of the IPA. The authors used the following methods of scientific research: deduction, induction and logical method. The concept of the estimated (marginal) value of real estate objects is clarified, which is based on the estimated cost of construction, taking into account a certain number of assumptions. A review of the current methods of calculating the estimated value in Russia and abroad is conducted. It is concluded that in Russia there is no single base for determining the cost of the CIW. The basic index method in the prices of 2000– 2001 significantly reduces the accuracy of calculations. The idea of forming a new dynamic system of the resource-index method, which takes into account the life cycle of a building and is based on big data of price information in construction, on the basis of which it is possible to develop a system of forecasting the estimated value of an object using machine learning methods, is prospective.

BUDGETARY FINANCING

113-121 336
Abstract

The Russian physical culture and sports complex “Ready for labor and defense” is established in Russia since 2014. The main element of the project is testing centers, of which more than 2600 in the country. At the same time, the activities of such centers are often not systematized and have different, sometimes diametrically opposite approaches to its organization. The subject of this study is the activities of testing centers, including personnel, financial, logistical and informational parameters. For several years, the federal operator is developing various methodological materials for the development of testing centers. The purpose of this study is to develop financing mechanisms for the identified forms of organization of testing centers. The main research methods are the statistical method and the method of comparative analysis. As part of our research, we analyzed statistical information for the period 2020–2022, as well as a survey of 170 testing centers located in 59 regions of Russia and having different organizational and legal forms and a number of other different features. Based on the results of the study, the main sources of financing for the activities of testing centers were identified, as well as mechanisms and recommendations for increasing budgetary and extra-budgetary funding of various activities of testing centers were developed. The results of the study are practical, tested, successfully applied by some organizations and can be used in testing centers of various types.

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

122-135 251
Abstract

The efficiency of pension asset management, reflected in their performance, determines the stability of the funded pension system of Kazakhstan, and also has the potential to significantly affect the budget process, since the state guarantees recipients a positive real return on their pension savings and compensates from the budget for losses incurred during periods when inflation exceeds the nominal rate of return. The need to ensure a positive real return on pension assets managed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan determines not only the high relevance of the issue of investment management itself, but also other aspects that affect the return, including changes in the exchange rate of the Kazakhstani tenge. The subject of the article is the impact of the tenge exchange rate on the profitability of pension assets, which can be very significant, since it forms one of the main components of investment income — income from foreign currency revaluation. This influence can also act as a factor in the formation of the tenge exchange rate during periods when the real return of pension assets decreases due to the negative situation in the financial markets and high inflation, and this thesis reflects the scientific novelty of the article. The assessment of the hypothesis about the formation of the relationship between the exchange rate of the Kazakhstani currency and the investment yield of pension assets is the aim of this work, and the identification of the main causes and consequences of this phenomenon is its task. Comparative and correlation analysis of indicators of investment return of pension assets, changes in the exchange rate of the Kazakhstani currency, parameters of the external sector and others were used as research methods. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of a relationship between the indicators of profitability of pension assets and the tenge exchange rate, and allow us draw the conclusion that this profitability has an indirect impact on the formation of the Kazakhstani currency exchange rate over the past few years, which has been characterized by non-standard dynamics in the context of a significant improvement in the external economic environment.

136-147 12358
Abstract

Due to new technical advances, the machine can think as a person-investor and express its reaction to readily available financial information. Forecasting models for the Indian stock market can be developed based on the analysis of these sentiments. The purpose of the study is to identify gaps in existing approaches to the analysis of sentiments and models of forecasting trends in the Indian stock market, which can improve the accuracy of the prediction of the dynamics of Indian stocks. The paper presents an overview of the literature on the analysis of sentiments of financial information using lexical methods, machine learning methods and forecasting for the Indian stock market based on sentiment analysis data. The scientific works, conference reports, dissertations, books and articles published by scientists for the period from 2015 to 2021 are considered. The datasets published in Indian Stock Exchanges suggest increasing participation of retail investors in the Indian Stock market in recent times. To help investors in decisionmaking, various prediction models are available based on the financial information. The results of the survey showed that investors’ attitudes based on the microeconomic and macroeconomic information associated with stocks influence the movement of the stock price. Therefore, forecasting a future trend or price requires a sentiments analysis based on available financial information. It was concluded that using machine learning to extract sentiment from financial data allows for more accurate forecasts than sentiment analysis based on vocabulary. The results of this study can be useful for students and new professionals in the field of financial information data analysis and stock market predictions who want to get connected with this area, identify problem concerns, and develop models for predicting decision-making.

INNOVATION INVESTMENT

148-160 292
Abstract

The article assesses the impact of investments in the digitization of service organizations on population well-being indices across Russia’s regions. The relevance of the study is reduced to the fact that in the context of digitalization of the economy there is a dynamic development of the service sector, which becomes a driver of the growth of the quality and standard of living of the population. The purpose of the study is to determine the presence of economic effects from investments in digitalization that contribute to the improvement of the level and quality of life of the population in the region. The objectives of the study are theoretically justify the selection of indicators for assessing the well-being of the regional population, investments in the digitalization of service organizations depending on the type of region, and the calculation of digital effects. Methods of assessment of par correlations, typology, and panel data used to conduct spatial-time analysis. 85 regions of Russia were selected as the objects of study, and the research period includes the pre-pandemic and pandemic period, the impact of which led to an increase in investment in digital technologies in the service sector. The study tested the scientific hypothesis that investment in the digitalization of the service sector contributes to an increase in the volume of services, their availability and their quality, which, in turn, leads to an increase in the well-being of the population. The analysis carried out did not allow us to fully confirm the hypothesis, since there are differences between regions and types of services. The novelty of the study is in the formed spatial-time models, reflecting the relationship between investment in the digitalization of the services sphere and the factors determining the quality of life of the population of the regions of Russia. The analysis did not fully support the hypothesis, as there were differences between regions and types of services. It concluded that the investment increased the population’s use of computer equipment and service volumes, as well as their ability to save more money and use services for managing their personal finances.

CORPORATE FINANCE

161-172 909
Abstract

The subject of the study is ESG factors (Environment, Social, Government) and their inclusion in the value of Russian companies. The purpose of the paper is to reveal the theoretical and methodological aspects of taking into account ESG factors when assessing the value of companies. The relevance of the study is determined by the influence of the ESG rating of companies on changes in their value. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a general scheme, which includes four stages: substantiation of key external and internal factors influencing ESG-assessments of the company’s value; analysis of the nature of the impact of key factors on ESG assessments; assessment of the impact of the ESG-factor on the elements of value creation (forecast period, discount factor, cash flows, post-forecast growth rates); building a financial model for assessing the value of companies taking into account ESG factors. Methods: general scientific methods (comparative analysis, generalization, formalization) and empirical (observation, comparison, modeling). The DCF (discounted cash flow) approach was proposed as the main method for assessing the value of a company, which allows not only to estimate the value of a company over a specific period of time, but also acts as a cost management tool. An analysis of scientific and theoretical points of view and methodological approaches to assessing the influence of ESG factors on the value of companies was carried out, significant factors influencing the ESG assessment of the company’s value were identified, and a financial model for assessing the value of the company taking into account ESG factors was proposed. The model for assessing the impact of ESG on cash flow generation elements was tested using the example of PJSC Polymetal. It is concluded that the ESG assessment of a company’s value is influenced by both external factors (international regulation, country specifics, industry specifics) and internal ones (specifics of the capital structure, specifics of production). The developed financial model for assessing the value of a company makes it possible to take into account ESG factors in the output forms of reporting: balance sheet, profit and loss statement, cash flow statement. The proposed model is addressed to top managers of the company for the purpose of using it in the process of assessing the degree of influence of ESG factors on the cost of equity capital, potential investors and appraisers.

173-184 373
Abstract

The relevance of the topic lies in the fact that the level of competitiveness of a bank in waste management will have an increasing impact on its ESG ratings in the future. The purpose of this paper is to improve waste management in a bank (mainly faulty office equipment and paper waste). However, not all banks use active management methods in waste management, so this article offers recommendations for the successful management of key indicators. The article uses data on waste from banks in Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Kuwait, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the UAE, and Vietnam. The objectives of the study include: identification of the essence of the competitiveness of waste management in a bank; consideration of the types of competitiveness of waste management; assessment of the impact of blockchain technology on the competitiveness of waste management; assessment of minimizing waste management costs in a bank. A method for waste composition and waste export based on statistical analysis and a regression model. It used data about the current waste management activities of a bank. This study uses data from an annual time series covering the period from 2013 to 2021. The results of the study confirm that the problem of electronic waste of banks in Asia can be solved by increasing financing and a complete analysis of bank waste. There are points of novelty in the article: (1) the essence of the competitiveness of waste management in a bank is determined, which consists in the recycling of most waste and not in their disposal; (2) the ideas of the competitiveness of waste management are considered in Sberbank; (3) the impact of blockchain technology on the competitiveness of waste management in banks is assessed; (4) an assessment of the competitiveness of waste management in a commercial bank is given. In order to better understand the factors influencing the production of e-waste in the region, the study focuses on the significance of addressing the rising problem of e-waste in Asia and the need for better collection and analysis of waste data in a bank. The main conclusion is the need to recycle waste and increase recycling costs in the future, which is the most environmentally friendly option compared to incineration.

185-198 230
Abstract

The subject of the study is the Russian electronic industry as a strategically important sector that ensures national security and cybersecurity in all areas of activity. The relevance of the study is due to insufficient efficiency and consistency of the results of the existing monitoring of the development of the electronics industry, which is related to the lack of comprehensive information and analytical tools for diagnosis of indicators of sustainable development of industry. The purpose of the study is to develop a flexible situational approach to monitoring the electronics industry, taking into account the industry strategy to expand production of civilian products, as well as to justify the effectiveness of financing tools and increasing the sustainable development of the industry. As a result, a monitoring technique based on data from industry statistics, the Spark-Interfax information resource, and big data analytics for organizations in the electronics industry, with eventual industry aggregation, was developed. The sectoral structure was examined in accordance with the methodology, the market situation and business models were evaluated, and the risks and shortcomings of financing the sector were identified. The approach ensures monitoring of the transformation of the industry, creation of a fair competitive market, increase in the share of efficient private Russian companies and their integration into the global ecosystem. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the selection of sectoral assessment indicators, the use of information resources and big data technology, which provide regular diagnostics of the industry. The theoretical significance of the study is the development and adaptation of industry analysis to the specifics of the electronics industry, as well as the inclusion of sustainable development indicators. The results of the study are of practical significance for the professional Association of organizations of the radio-electronic industry of Russia, government regulators and private investors interested in operational information about the state and trends of the development of the industry and its financing tools.

199-210 264
Abstract

The object of the study is Russian industrial companies whose shares are traded on the Moscow Exchange. The study’s subject is financial and financial connections in the field of using intellectual capital’s competence component as an important factor in business growth. The relevance of the study is important for the increasing role of intellectual capital and its components as a determining factor in business growth, as well as the need to identify new determinants that influence company capitalization. In the context of overcoming the consequences of sanctions, intellectualization and digitalization of the economy, the problem of the study of the dependency of the capitalization of Russian companies on the state of the components of intellectual capital is significantly updated. The purpose of the study is to assess and model the impact of the competence component of intellectual capital and financial efficiency on the capitalization of Russian manufacturing companies.Methods of comparative and statistical analysis, calculation of financial and economic indicators, correlation and regression analysis, and the Farrar-Glauber test were used. According to correlation analysis, the capitalization of Russian public companies in the production sector is influenced by an internal factor such as patent activity. The constructed multifactor linear regression model allows for the conclusion that a 1% increase in the number of patents raises the company’s market capitalization by 1.23% while all other factors remain constant. It is concluded that in the Russian market the importance of material assets as a factor in business growth significantly prevails over the influence of the competence component of intellectual capital. Recommendations are given, the implementation of which in the practice of Russian manufacturing companies will maximize their capitalization by taking into account the financial and economic advantages from the use of the competence component of intellectual capital.

211-222 806
Abstract

The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to analyzing the efficiency of telecommunications companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) using methods for determining Economic Value Added (EVA), Market Value Added (MVA), Financial Value Added (FVA), and Refined Economic Value Added (REVA). A summary of the relevant literature is formed on the bibliographic database. Statistical data based on information from the Indonesia Stock Exchange for four companies in the telecommunications sector over 5 years. Data from reports’ balance sheets, including reports of profits and losses, is investigated. The results of the survey demonstrated that a telecommunications company had a positive EVA value, which meant that it succeeded in creating economic value. The three telecommunications companies had a positive MVA value, which meant that they provided value-added through market capitalization. In four telecommunications companies, a positive FVA indicated that management was successful in providing financial value-added for the company. One of the four telecommunications companies produced a positive REVA, which meant an increase in economic value after the company paid off all liabilities to creditors and shareholders. The use of various value-added measures to assess the performance of Indonesian businesses is a scientific novelty that contributes to the development of corporate finance theory.



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ISSN 2587-5671 (Print)
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)