The main purpose of this paper is to test the performance of GARCH models in estimating and forecasting VaR (value at risk) of the US Fintech stock market from July 20, 2016, to December 31, 2021. In addition, this study examines the impact of COVID-19 on the risk spillover between the adequate VaR series of the US global KFTX index and the five Fintech industries. Specifically, we compare different VaR estimates (862 in-sample daily returns) and predictions (550 out-of-sample daily returns) of several GARCH model specifications under a normal and Student-t distribution with 1% and 5% significance. The Backtesting results indicate that I-GARCH with Student-t distribution is a good model for estimating and forecasting VaR of the US Fintech stock market before and during COVID-19. Moreover, the total connectedness results suggest that global and each Fintech industry increases significantly under turbulent market conditions. Given these considerations, this paper provides policymakers and regulators with a better understanding of risk in the Fintech industry without inhibiting innovation.

The sphere of decentralized finance is the subject of widespread debate as the ways of providing services in the financial market. Using distributed registry technologies, smart contacts and a decentralized format of cooperation, it is capable, to a certain extent, of replacing traditional financial intermediaries in some product segments of the financial market. The authors set the task of identifying possible markers of liquidity flow into the sphere of decentralized finance, as well as assessing the scale and dynamics of its development compared with segments of the financial sector of the economy. The purpose of the study is to form a system of comparable indicators, based on which national regulators will be able to objectively assess the scale and dynamics of development of the DeFi sector. To achieve the goal, the article conducted a quantitative analysis of the relationship between changes in the money supply and the total value locked of crypto assets in the DeFi sector; a comparative analysis of various segments of the DeFi sphere and the financial sector of the economy was carried out. As the main methods, the authors used methods of regression analysis, systemic and logical methods, induction and deduction, methods of economic statistics, which made it possible to identify tendencies in the development of the sphere of decentralized finance against the background of indicators of development of the financial sector of the economy. The source data consisted of statistical databases on key indicators of the development of the financial sector of the economy at the international level, as well as databases on services provided by participants of decentralized finance. As a result of the study, the impact of changes in money supply on total value locked in DeFi is evaluated, as well as tendencies and scale of development of the sphere of decentralized finance in comparable indicators of the financial sector of the economy are identified. It is concluded that the scale of the current development of decentralized finance is not significant. However, according to a number of comparable indicators, this sphere already represents a certain parity with the financial sector of the economy. First of all, this applies to the trading turnover of decentralized exchanges and the volume of trading in crypto derivatives. The results of the study can be used by national regulators when assessing the scale of development of the sphere of decentralized finance under certain monetary and financial conditions.

Currently, researchers are particularly interested in studying the influence of the dynamics of various financial variables on the pace of economic development. In this regard, an important stage of the analysis is the study of the transmission of monetary impulses through the transmission channels of monetary policy to the real sector of the economy. The purpose of this article is to identify the features of the functioning of the inflation channel in the Russian Federation from 2013 to 2022 based on the construction of VAR models (vector autoregression), as well as to evaluate the function of impulse responses of variables. Through the application of this algorithm of computational and analytical actions, the mechanisms of interaction of the following variables within each of the considered chains of the inflationary channel of monetary policy were investigated: the volume of money supply, the deflator index of gross domestic product (GDP), average monthly nominal accrued wages, and gross domestic product (GDP). As a result, a consistent element of the inflation channel was highlighted, namely, the relationship between the average monthly nominal accrued wages, on the one hand, and the rates of inflation and GDP, on the other. However, the relationships between the other links of the transmission channel remain contradictory, indicating the need for further research aimed at clarifying the quantitative characteristics and direction of the relationships between the variables.

The subject of the research is methods for assessing the shadow economy in the field of agricultural production. The purpose of the study is to propose methods for identifying the shadow economy in agricultural enterprises, which negatively affects economic growth and the balanced development of regions and the country as a whole. The objectives of the study were scientific and methodological substantiation of indirect methods for assessing the indicators of the shadow economy in agricultural enterprises; an objective assessment of possible financial losses from unaccounted-for activities; and development of methods for a comprehensive assessment of the shadow economy in the field of agricultural production to timely identify and address the causes and conditions that have a destabilizing effect on the country’s food security. The study used an analytical method to identify cause-and-effect relationships between the studied process of unaccounted-for agricultural production, financial losses and threats to food security. It is concluded that in order to effectively combat the shadow economy in the agricultural sector, it is necessary to improve methods for assessing the level of informal production, which will not only objectively determine the actual state of affairs, but also develop effective measures to eliminate the causes and conditions conducive to the organization of this illegal activity. The scientific novelty of the study is the identification of imbalances between the indicators of financial and economic activity of agricultural enterprises, which indicate signs of unaccounted-for agricultural production. The author proposes to carry out a comprehensive analysis of all indicators of the results of financial and economic activities in this field of production, which allows us to calculate the actual volumes of products produced. It is also proposed to develop special government programs aimed at identifying threats and minimizing the risks of ensuring the stable functioning of agricultural enterprises through the introduction of modern accounting and control technologies. The article offers a comparative analysis of the results of financial and economic activities of the main stages of production and processing of agricultural products, which will reveal the facts of shadow production, calculate the amount of financial losses and promptly eliminate the causes and conditions conducive to shadow production in the agricultural sector.

The article is devoted to adapting general mathematical models of the software markets for describing the market of the specific product. These are the technologies of artificial intelligence in speech analytics. The purpose of this study is to create a modeling instrumentation for pricing the technologies of speech analytics in companies which enter this market. The purpose also includes recommendations provided with the price politics. The object of the study is the Russian market of speech analytics technologies. The subject of the study are the prices of this product in companies which enter the market being explored. In this studying the authors use classical methods of economical and mathematical modeling the markets with different competitive levels (monopoly, duopoly, oligopoly, monopolistic competition). The results of the study are the foundations of prices for the companies which enter the speech analytics market. These prices are based on three kinds of economical mathematical models: regression, rating and marginal indicators. All three kinds of models lead to one recommendation. A company which enters the speech analytics market should establish the prices  with Less orientation to the indictors of analytics’ quality. Because in all three models this factor has very weak influence on a result. More important factor are the additional options. Their bigger quantity allows a company to establish a price which is nearer to the same one of the market leaders.

The subject of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship between working capital and firm performance in India. The purpose of the study is to test the impact of optimal working capital on a firm’s market value and profitability. Methodology: The Generalised Method of Movement is employed to study the impact of working capital on a firm’s performance, measured as Return on Capital Employed and Enterprise Value to Sales. The results indicate a U-shape relationship between RoCE and the working capital component. On the contrary, the inventory turnover ratio has an inverted U-shape relationship with the market value of the firm. This study concludes that tight inventory management adds value at the initial stage, but strict inventory control erodes market value. The findings of the study support the optimum level of inventories to increase the firm’s performance, both in accounting terms and market value.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Corporate SociaL ResponsibiLity (CSR) discLosure on corporate resilience. Furthermore, this study also analyzes the mediating effect of corporate reputation on the effect of CSR disclosure on corporate resilience. This study used a sample of all companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2017 to 2020. The sample in this study was 222 companies with a total of 444 observations. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) was used as a data anaLysis technique. The resuLts indicate that corporate reputation was vitaL in mediating the effect between corporate social responsibility and corporate resilience. It reveals that investors in Indonesia considered the company’s reputation in times of crisis in addition to CSR. Other findings show that CSR and corporate reputation negatively affect the Loss severity and recovery time. It demonstrates that investors in Indonesian stock markets are more concerned with CSR disclosure and the company’s reputation when experiencing a shock. Companies with good CSR and a superior reputation have better corporate resilience than companies with bad CSR and an unfavorable reputation. Good CSR can be one of the factors that can increase company resilience; however, CSR must be carried out continuousLy to buiLd an exceLLent corporate reputation so that, in the Long term, that cannot be determined when shocks occur. The roLe of corporate reputation can help companies rise more quickly and suffer fewer Losses than other businesses.

The agro-industrial complex is an important component of the economy. However, this sector is characterized by a complex structure, limited resources and dependence on government actions. For these reasons, portfolio management in the agro-industrial sector requires special attention when developing the investment strategy. In this regard, the study of the strategy and methodology of managing the securities portfolio of the agro-industrial complex is an urgent topic in the context of restructuring of the Russian economy. The main task in managing the securities portfolio is to attract the financial resources of the company for the needs of organizations and to increase their economic activities. Investment portfolio in the market of financial instruments is an independent product, its implementation in full or in part brings profit to the investor when he makes investments of monetary resources on the stock exchange. As a rule, the securities market implements an asset portfolio with established proportions of profitability and risk, the indicators of which may improve or worsen during the management process. As part of structural asset allocation development and  risk assessment, the authors set out to explore various approaches to developing mechanisms for managing securities portfolio in the agro-industrial sector in order to maximize profits for the investor. The subject of the study is approaches to managing securities portfolio in the agro-industrial sector, data analysis methods used in conducting the study, as well as possible investment strategies in this sector. The methodological basis of this work is the economic and statistical methods of information processing, as well as mathematical modeling. Based on the data obtained, it is concluded that new data in the field of securities portfolio management in the agro-industrial sector allow investors to make optimal and profitable decisions when choosing investment strategies based on a risk-based approach. As a result, the current state of the agro-industrial complex was studied and the risks of the securities portfolio of the agro-industrial complex of Russia were assessed, recommendations for the formation of a securities portfolio in the agro-industrial sector for the future were developed.

In response to the increased global competition within the banking industry, financial institutions are diligently exploring the deployment of new banking technologies to improve both the quality of their banking infrastructure and customer. The purpose of this study is to assess the quality aspects (information quality and service quality) of mobile banking on perceived satisfaction and word of mouth and the variation in the proposed relationship between public and private sector banks in India. The research methodology: for data collection, a survey was conducted on 230 mobile banking users by using a random sampling technique. For analysis we used partial least square structural equation modelling with the help of Smart PLS 4.0. The result depicts that perceived satisfaction is significantly impacted by service quality, and also the impact of perceived satisfaction on word of mouth is positively significant, which indicates the importance of quality parameters during the use of m-banking. Meanwhile information quality was found to have an insignificant effect on perceived satisfaction. The variation demonstrates that the impact of service quality on perceived satisfaction was stronger in the public sector banks than in the private sector banks. The findings of the study will help in improving retention rate of m-banking consumers and determining consumer preference in different sectors of banks. 

Difficult geopolitical situation in the world has made the issue of attracting private investment into the economy at the meso-management Level relevant for Russia Currently, the solution of this problem is impossible without monitoring the investment attractiveness of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to develop an adequate methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of Russian regions. Based on competitive benchmarking techniques, the investment attractiveness of territories (within the country) is assessed in dynamics over a number of years. The results of a retrospective assessment conducted using the index method are deepened by cluster analysis. Also, the authors’ methodology allows us to assess not only the actual investment attractiveness of Russian regions, but also assumes the formation of a forecast. At the same time, the above tasks are solved with the help of artificial intelligence. The results of the retrospective assessment showed that in 2019-2022, Moscow and St. Petersburg were the pronounced leaders in the rating of investment attractiveness among the subjects of the Russian Federation. At the bottom of the rating (they did not rise above 71st place) on a regular basis were all the republics from the North Caucasus Federal District, as well as the Republic of Kalmykia and the Republic of Tyva, which are included, respectively, in the Southern Federal District and the Siberian Federal District. Based on the results of the cluster analysis, it can be seen that all Russian regions in 2019-2022 could be organized into three groups characterized by above-average, average and below-average levels of investment attractiveness. The quality of the formed cluster structure has improved over the entire analyzed period of time: the share of subjects of the Russian Federation with above-average investment attractiveness has almost doubled. The results of the (retro and prospective) assessment according to the authors’ methodology allow us to conclude that there are significant reserves for the growth of investment attractiveness of all Russian regions without exception. Based on the decomposition of its results, the leadership of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation will be able to develop measures to improve the effectiveness of the regional investment policy.

The article develops the issues of application in investment practice of a number of official terms related to the turnover of digital financial assets as a subject of research. Their economic and legal content in the focus of the research objective is achieved by solving scientific tasks - determining the functional purpose of monetary claims as one of the types of digital financial assets and critically evaluating the relevant conceptual apparatus available in the current regulatory framework. Combination of general scientific, private scientific and special methods of cognition is used on the methodological basis of materialistic positivism. The doctrinal sources were the relevant scientific works of domestic and foreign authors, the materials of the official statistics of the Bank of Russia, credit institutions, professional participants in the financial market, specialized companies-operators as of 01 2025 were used as a statistical base. As a result, an empirical study of investment transactions made it possible to reveal the investment and economic content of digital financial assets in terms of their first variety - monetary claims. The conclusions were substantiated that the current regulatory provisions of Federal Law No. 259-FZ dated 31.07.2020 require adjustments in terms of clarification of both individual definitions and interpretations of a number of provisions concerning the conceptual apparatus. Based on the identification of the economic and legal nature and interpretation of type elements of the investment toolkit of digital financial assets, the authors propose relevant recommendations.

The major topic investigates how classical methods (ARCH and GARCH) and well-known machine learning algorithms, support vector regression, and hybrid methods. This paper aims to predict and forecast volatility to develop a two-stage forecasting approach the volatility of the Amman Stock Exchange Index (ASE) effectively. Additionally, the effectiveness of the machine learning techniques’ selection and utilization of information in stock data is evaluated. Methods the semiparametric estimating technique known as support vector regression (SVR) has been widely used for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. By integrating SVR with the GARCH model (GARCH-SVR) application with various kernels (Radial Basis Kernel Function (RBF), Polynomial Kernel Function (PF), and linear Kernel Function (lF)). The suggested learning approaches are compared to two well-known statistical time series models, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), in order to assess the assertion that they can properly anticipate ASE volatility. To compare their results, RMSE is employed as an error metric. There is evidence that the GARCH-SVR model performs best for predicting volatility time series, and classical volatility model techniques have an enormous predictive performance better than machine learning models.

The purpose of the study is to identify and analyze problems and develop recommendations to ensure a balance of social, economic, budgetary, credit and other aspects of the integrated development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation under sanctions. The relevance of the study is due to the need to resolve issues of a rational relationship between ensuring social stability in society and the dynamism of investment and technological renewal of the territory’s economy as the basis for its sustainable long-term development in the current conditions of sanctions pressure from unfriendly countries on the economy of Russia and its regions. In accordance with the results obtained of this study, the following conclusions were formulated: 1) based on the results of a review of scientific publications of domestic and foreign authors on the issues of balanced development of territories, the differences and interrelationships between balanced and sustainable development were highlighted, and the use of an approach to assessing balance based on criteria of economic security was justified; 2) a system of 26 indicators of economic security is proposed, characterizing the development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of social, economic, innovative and environmental components. Based on the use of methods of statistical analysis, standardization, spectrum-score and expert methods, an assessment and grouping of the regions of the Volga Federal District was carried out according to the level of balance, which made it possible to identify the presence of significant heterogeneity when comparing individual components of development and their distinctive features (problem areas) in different periods (pre-pandemic, pandemic, post-pandemic, sanctions); 3) based on the results of the study, the main problems of balanced regional development were identified and recommendations were proposed to improve it based on the principle of complementarity (mutual complementarity) of components as the basis for ensuring sustainable socio-economic development of territories and improving the quality of life of the population.

The current article is devoted to analysing the state budget expenditures of the Republic of Armenia regarding its impact on economic growth rates. The object of the study is the expenditures of the state budget of the Republic of Armenia. The study aims to analyze and assess the impact of the state budget expenditures on the economic growth rate in the country. The main hypothesis of the study is that inefficient spending of budgetary funds not only does not stimulate but, in many ways, is a significant factor of the slowdown in economic growth in Armenia. The methodological bases of the study are the provisions of modern economic theory regarding the impact of government spending on economic growth rates. The study used methods of qualitative, statistical and econometric analysis of indicators, followed by the identification of cause-and-effect relationships and impact assessment. Data on the expenditures of the state budget of Armenia was taken as the informative basis of the study. The study of the scientific literature allowed to identify key theoretical approaches regarding the impact of the state budget expenditures on the economic growth rates in the country. The study examined in detail the expenditure articles of the state budget of Armenia, highlighting positive and negative factors influencing economic growth. In this regard, a vector autoregression model was built to identify the impact of spending on economic growth in the country. The result of the study was the conclusion that the impact of the state budget expenditures on the economic growth rates has a long-term negative nature in Armenia. The analysis of both the structure of state budget expenditures and the constructed vector autoregression model proves that the lack of an expenditure policy regarding the development of human capital, infrastructure and other components of public spending is one of the significant factors of the slowdown in economic growth in Armenia.

structural transformation, which is understood as a change in the proportions between the basic sectors - processing, raw materials and transaction. In orthodox economic theories, gross fixed capital formation is given a central place in ensuring economic growth in the long term, although in practice there are many conditions that weaken such an impact. The purpose of the study is to identify the modes of the investment process in the coordinates of “investment - risk”, determining the impact on the growth rate and assessing the distribution of investments by economic sectors that form the economic structure. This will allow specifying the tasks of development of the Russian economy, highlighting the directions of structural policy and measures to stimulate economic growth that go beyond the stereotypical orthodox approach, which reduces recommendations to an increase in the accumulation rate and investments. The methodology of the study is the theory of economic growth and structural dynamics, empirical and regression analysis of data, ideas about the investment process and measures to stimulate it, a method for assessing the risk by the standard deviation of gross profit. The result is that the article theoretically identifies several investment dynamics regimes, defining two basic investment types (according to the dynamics of investment and risk) - “risky” and “hedge”. The current growth structure in Russia is assessed as based on risky investments, fixing the relationship between the main sectors and their contribution to the overall GDP growth rate. An empirical analysis of economic growth in Russia in the period 2000-2023 confirms that the dynamics of investments determined the growth rate, which in turn depended on changes in the risk generated by the institutional conditions of development. The risky type of investment also limited growth, and structurally, investments in fixed capital were mainly directed to transaction activities, then to the raw materials sectors and only then to processing. This circumstance actualizes the task of structural changes, which should be reduced to a change in the investment regime and institutional conditions that encourage capital renewal in the manufacturing sectors.

The subject of the study is the empirical patterns of the influence of the state macrofinanciaL policy on stimulating innovation activity within the framework of the endogenous theory of growth. The purpose of the paper is to propose an approach aimed at ensuring direct market competition between several firms in each industry, which combines the concept of endogenous growth with a dynamic industry model of ideal Kurnout - Nash equilibrium. The scientific contribution and novelty of the research Lies in the development of new and improvement of key methodological approaches already used to assess the impact of R&D subsidies on endogenous productivity growth. In particular, new key characteristics of competition through R&D are introduced, which are usually absent in most endogenous growth models, including: 1) deterministic entry and exit from the market; 2) the distribution of firm sizes; and 3) more complex market structures that vary by industry and over time. The main conclusion is the fact that the results obtained by the author confirm the correctness of using the proposed methodological approach. The summary results confirm the existence of partial equilibrium conditions for a particular industry, demonstrating how growth-stimulating subsidies for R&D change the endogenously determined structure of the market. R&D subsidies “stretch” the distribution of market shares by increasing the number of firms in the market, but at the same time increase the differences in market shares between firms. The new methodological approach proposed by the author provides an important step towards the study of a more formalized apparatus for studying the dynamic industry model of ideal equilibrium.

The article is devoted to the issues of fiscal policy cyclicality in foreign countries. The purpose of the article is to explore the features of the fiscal policy cyclicality of some federal countries - representatives of the “group of twenty” for the period from 1971 to 2022. The objective predetermined the setting of the following tasks: to analyze the cyclicality of fiscal policy by expenditures, to analyze the cyclicality of tax policy, as well as to compare the obtained results to identify common patterns of cyclicality for countries with a similar level of economic development. The study of fiscal policy cyclicality is relevant because it allows governments to adjust their fiscal policies according to the current state of the economy. This helps to smooth out fluctuations in economic activity and reduce the risk of recessions. Research methods - econometric modeling (building a linear regression model and using pooled binary least squares estimation), comparison, analysis. Main results of the study: the procyclicality of the public expenditure policy is confirmed in all the countries studied over the period considered, and it has an inverse dependence on the level of economic development of the country (the higher the level of development of the country in the period considered, the less procyclical its expenditure policy). The fiscal policy of all countries under consideration is countercyclical in terms of VAT, corporate and individual income taxes, but the degree of countercyclicality is different everywhere. The novelty of the study is the construction of a dynamic model without a free term, as well as the inclusion in the analysis of periods of global financial crisis, pandemic, the current stage of technological mode change and geopolitical bifurcation. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of balanced development of territories: in federal countries, where there are different levels of economic activity and income in different regions, the establishment of the type of cyclicality of fiscal policy allows a more even distribution of tax and budgetary resources to support the sustainable development of all regions.

The subject of the study is the role of gold in the economy and its prospects as a financial instrument. Gold has been a valuable asset for several millennia, capable of performing the functions of money, and even after demonetization remained an important financial asset and resource for industry, which is largely due to its unique natural characteristics. Gold is capable of yielding an average annual yield of about 15%, which makes it profitable for both private investors and governments to invest in this asset. The purpose of the study is to determine the modern role of gold and its prospects as a financial instrument. The study should help to understand how the role of gold in the economy has changed and what it is today. In addition, the study can help identify the potential of gold as an asset in the financial market, based on a serious theoretical and historical basis. The paper analyzes the gold market and identifies factors affecting the price of gold; based on the analysis of the dynamics of gold prices, their correlation with the consumer price index was revealed. The financial instruments of the gold market are considered and the differences between them are formulated. The presented index “Index of gold bonds” allows you to track the dynamics of the market and create a diversified investment portfolio of this type of securities. A theoretical analysis of the scientific and methodological literature was carried out; generalization and systematization of the theoretical aspects of the research topic. The historical method, the economic and statistical method, the mathematical method, the practical synthesis and processing of information were also used, which made it possible to process and describe the results of the study. Based on the results of the work carried out, it  can be concluded that gold, having unique natural properties that determine its rarity and usefulness in the economy, allows its owners to receive sufficient average annual returns to beat inflation. Secured and physical gold was, and still is, a hedge asset against infrastructural instability, and therefore is necessary for the structure of the population’s “safety cushion” and the state’s international reserves.