MONETARY & CREDIT POLICY
To fulfill its main function of protecting and ensuring the stability of the ruble, the Bank of Russia actively uses an inflation targeting policy, operating in conditions of permanent crises (macroeconomic, political, institutional, monetary). Such an approach makes it relevant to study the degree of influence of pro-inflationary factors on the actual inflation rate, as well as to analyze the experience of monetary policy as an alternative to regulating the key rate. The purpose of the study is to assess the effectiveness of using the key rate as an inflation targeting tool. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the identification and the analysis of factors influencing the formation of inflation targeting goals. During the study, the methods of generalization, grouping, statistical and comparative analysis were used. As a result of the study, the impact of pro-inflationary factors on the Russian economy as well as on the level of inflation targets in Russia and the world was assessed; the actual problems of inflation targeting using the key rate were formulated; the contradiction of social and monetary policy in the conditions of economic and political shocks was revealed; and alternative mechanisms of inflation regulation were proposed. Based on the results of the study, the conclusions were made that to effectively achieve the target inflation rate, it is necessary to increase the level of confidence in the Bank of Russia and the predictability of monetary policy on the basis of increased transparency of the Bank’s decisions on the key rate. It is shown that the open policy of inflation targeting, even at a high level of the key rate, may increase the adaptability of the economy to the short-term shocks, but at the same time, a coordinated macroeconomic policy implemented by the Bank of Russia jointly with the Government of the Russian Federation is also necessary. Based on the identified urgent problems of reducing inflation, measures to minimize them are proposed.
STATE FINANCES
In the current political conditions, the key attention in the country is paid to the construction of such state budgets in which the influence of external factors on the economy will be minimized. The most important tasks are to ensure the development of the subjects of the Russian Federation, improve the quality of life in Russia, increase the attractiveness of the state both for its citizens and at the international level, and create favorable conditions for the life and work of the population in our country. One of the central mechanisms for solving these tasks is the budget system. It includes federal, regional and local budgets, which are formed according to the principle of solving key socially significant issues in their execution. The benchmark for effectiveness was taken in the Russian Federation in 2004 during the budget reform, the purpose of which was to switch to the use of the program budget. To achieve maximum results, various budgeting tools are used, the main of which today are programs and projects at all levels of government. The purpose of the study is to identify the features of project financing in the construction of program-based budgets at the regional level. Comparison and grouping methods, as well as tabular and graphical methods of data presentation, were used. As an example, the regional budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation that are part of the Far Eastern Federal District are used: Kamchatsky, Khabarovsky, Primorsky and Zabaykalsky. At the end of the work, conclusions were drawn about the important role and high importance of the project part of program budgeting in solving the main socially and economically significant tasks of the state. Proposals have also been formulated to improve and optimize the formation of regional budgets using tools such as projects to increase the effectiveness of their implementation.
The purpose of the article is to examine the impact of long-term factors affecting human development in emerging market countries, based on the “middle income trap” hypothesis. According to the research question, the radical liberal reforms implemented in the countries of the former Soviet Union, including the Republic of Armenia, in the 1990s have led to the emergence of a middle income trap, which requires large expenditures and new reforms in human capital development to overcome. As a basic methodological approach, the problem of the relationship between human development and the middle income trap has been studied in the context of the dynamics of income differentiation and inequality indicators. According to the results of the study, in the Republic of Armenia, along with the economic growth recorded as a result of liberal reforms and the increase in the human development index, there has been an increase in the level of inequality, while the main factors restraining the latter are the progressive growth of public spending in the education and healthcare sectors. Among the factors that have a decisive impact on long-term human development, the spread of digital technologies, investments in research and development programs, as well as the neutralization of the effects of negative institutional factors, in particular, the reduction of corruption, are of decisive importance. The main findings of the study demonstrate that in the long run, overcoming the “middle income trap” is conditioned not only by increasing costs for education and healthcare sectors and gradual steps towards improving living standards, but also by programs of significant investments in improving the institutional environment.
REGIONAL FINANCE
The emergence and active use of the rotational method of organizing work in Russia is associated with the vast spaces and low population density of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, Siberia and the Far East. The shift method continues to be actively used at present by both large and medium-sized enterprises that pay corporate income tax. The Tax Code of the Russian Federation includes local government bodies of municipalities in the scheme for determining the costs of maintaining rotational and temporary camps. An analysis of the law enforcement practice of municipalities, aimed at determining these expenses, shows its inconsistency with the norms of tax legislation, which determines the relevance of the study. The purpose of this study is to develop scientifically sound and legally compliant approaches to determining the costs of maintaining rotational and temporary camps for the purposes of taxing the profits of organizations, as well as methodological recommendations for use by municipalities. The main research methods are systemic, logical, theoretical knowledge, scientific abstraction. The article outlines legal approaches to calculating the costs of maintaining rotational and temporary camps for tax purposes of organizations operating on a rotational basis in accordance with the norms of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, as well as economic approaches to calculating the costs of maintaining similar rotational facilities and services of municipalities. The result of the study was the development of methodological recommendations for the formation by local governments of cost standards for the maintenance of facilities and services similar to rotational services and the procedure for determining the costs of maintaining housing, communal and social facilities, subsidiary farms and other similar services.
CORPORATE FINANCE
Environmental sustainability and climate change have been considered as two of the burning issues across the globe and require an inclusive approach to manage the same. Regulators and policymakers are constantly pressurizing business corporations to adopt emission management practices to control their carbon footprint. To respond to this, corporate houses have progressively institutionalized internal carbon pricing (ICP) as a climate management strategy to control carbon footprints in operations and business models. The purpose of the study is to examine the firm-specific determinants of adopting ICP among companies operating in an emerging economy context. Current research takes a three-dimensional look at the reasons behind the use of ICP by combining factors related to finances, corporate governance, and the environment. Using panel data from 107 firms for 10 years (2013–2022), the study employs binary logistic regression analysis. Further, the study also uses the generalized method of moments (GMM) to control for potential endogeneity. Findings indicate that profitability, firm size, leverage, board size, and environmental sensitivity are the significant factors affecting the adoption of ICP among the sample firms. Further, the results also depict that even though the number of firms using ICP has increased, the current mean adoption rate is only 23%. The present study contributes to the scarce literature on carbon management practices in emerging contexts and describes several important implications for managers and policymakers.
FINANCIAl lITERACY
The “Futures & Options” (F&O) course is a major for financial students to learn to identify and recognize risks, master the skills and methods of risk management, and shape risk-oriented thinking. The purpose of the study is to identify the impact of the F&O course on the professional thinking, life and future work of students. This study used a survey on finance students (n = 534) of Tongling University of China who have studied F&O course over the past two years. Research questions: (1) How do students currently perceive the F&O course? (2) What factors influence the current perception of F&O students? (3) Does the impact of the F&O course on life/future employment and student development vary by gender? (4) Does the impact of the F&O course on life/future employment and student development vary depending on their knowledge of futures and options? (5) Does the impact of the F&O course on the life/future work and development of students vary depending on their participation in equity and fund investments? (6) Will the impact of the F&O course on the life/future employment and development of students vary depending on their participation in futures and options investments? The results of the study showed that the level of knowledge of male students was slightly higher than that of female students, and there were no gender differences in the impact of the F&O course on the life/future employment and development of students. Students who identified themselves with higher value of usefulness and ability of risk management did not participate in investing F&O. Students with higher knowledge level perform better than the others. It was concluded that, in general, the level of knowledge of students is better within the current educational model, the readiness of students to participate in practice is low, and the cultivation of risk awareness is not ideal.
BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS
Human resource development can only be achieved by promoting female entrepreneurship. There is a very low level of female entrepreneurship in India, especially in rural areas, which has recently been a cause for concern. Women are now aware of their existence, privileges, and employment circumstances.The subject of this research is female entrepreneurs in rural India, their contribution towards society, problems faced by women entrepreneurs in India, and initial steps taken by the administration for their development in India’s rural region. The research is explanatory. The primary data is used in the paper. The self-structured questionnaire was circulated to the women entrepreneurs in rural India. The data collected was analysed using a targeted sampling method in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences programme, followed by a study of the statistical results. During the survey, 44 respondents were interviewed. The results showed that among the most significant challenges were women’s family responsibilities, gender inequality, financial difficulties, low risk inclination and competition between men and women. It was concluded that the challenges faced by women entrepreneurs could be addressed through appropriate incentives, training, encouragement, social recognition of their entrepreneurial capabilities and appropriate family support.
The area of behavioral finance integrates economic and psychological concepts to comprehend and elucidate the decision-making process involved in personal finance. The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of anchoring, herding, and loss aversion on influencing working women investors’ investment decision-making. The sample size consists of 196 working women investors who are trading in the Indian Stock Market from Uttar Pradesh, India. A structured questionnaire is used for the collection of data, which is based on a five-point Likert scale. The SPSS (Version 22) software is used to analyze data employing the linear regression function. The result of this study confirmed that anchoring, herding, and loss aversion bias have a significant positive impact on working women investors’ investment decision-making. Based on the data obtained, this paper concludes that anchoring has the most influence on working women investors’ investment decisions, followed by herding, while loss aversion has the least influence on working women investors’ investment decision-making. The findings of this study have significant implications for working women investors, researchers, policymakers, and financial advisors. Awareness of these behavioral biases is vital for empowering working women to make informed and rational investment choices. It is important for financial advisors and policymakers to acknowledge these behavioral biases in order to offer customized counselling and support for working women investors. Even though these biases affect people of both genders equally, this research concentrates on how they particularly affect working women since they frequently deal with particular socio-cultural settings and expectations.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
This study examines the relationships between natural rent streams, financial development, institutional quality, and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and is the development of fixed effects panel models during 1990–2020. The analysis of the MENA region sheds light on the complex, dynamic nature of the region’s economies and societies, as this region is an interesting case study where economic, political and cultural dynamics are diverse. The region faces economic diversification needs, conflicts, migration, and climate change, making this study timely and relevant. To this end, fixed effects regressions and scenario approaches were applied to the collected panel data. The findings reveal natural resource rents as the primary driver of economic growth, their effectiveness dependent on financial development and institutional quality levels. A well-developed financial sector facilitates efficient channeling of rents into productive investments, while strong institutions mitigate resource curse effects. In contrast, while remittances and foreign aid do not directly impact growth, their effectiveness is enhanced by financial development and institutional frameworks. The results highlight the critical roles of financial sector development, institutional quality, and robust governance in shaping the impacts of resource rents in this resource-rich region. The policy recommendations emphasize strategies for managing resource wealth, strengthening financial systems, promoting inclusion, improving institutions, and fostering an enabling environment for remittances and foreign aid to promote sustainable economic growth.
Legitimacy theory posits that organizations strive to align with societal expectations to gain advantages, yet its focus has primarily been at the company level. The purpose of the study is to investigate the global applicability of legitimacy theory by examining the relationship between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) disclosures and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In particular, the study sets the task: analyze the impact of ESG disclosures on FDI across twenty-eight countries; compare the ESG performance of different nations; and explore the role of regional ESG standards in influencing ESG performance and FDI. The application of the Kruskal-Wallis test revealed the dominant position of Western nations with developed ESG standards. The Bonferroni adjustment post hoc test on World Bank data indicated that countries with well-developed ESG standards act as global investors, trusting the high standards of rapidly improving Western regions. Statistical tests confirmed that countries in the developing stage, with values somewhat similar to the most developed areas, present attractive alternatives for foreign investors. However, the lack of standardized norms hinders the establishment of trustworthy economic relationships. These findings suggest that just as businesses use Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) to gain legitimacy, countries can adopt ESG practices to align with global norms and attract FDI. Although this transition may be time-consuming, developing regional ESG disclosure norms could serve as an effective stepping stone.
ECONOMIC THEORY
The subject of the research is the credit system. The objective is to develop a model of the object and, on its basis, formulate a definition of the credit system. It is hypothesized that using the methods of formal logic, categorical-system methodology and the theory of dynamic information systems will allow us to obtain a scientifically sound and logically correct definition of the desired concept. The methods of critical analysis of literature, logical definition of the concept, triadic decoding of the category and generalization are used. A necessary and sufficient condition for classifying objects as credit systems was determined. These conditions included being a subsystem of the economy and possessing specific resources with the qualities of repayment, urgency, and payment. A model of the credit system is developed based on the principles of formal logic, and it is a subsystem of the economy. Using the ideas of triadicity, a model of the credit system was developed that reflects its functions, such as accumulation, redistribution, multiplication and their varieties. A detailed definition of the credit system is formulated — it is a subsystem of the economy that has specific resources characterized by the properties of repayment, urgency and payment and performs the functions of accumulation (preserving, saving, accumulating), redistribution (transfer, transfer, assignment) and multiplication (reserve, deposit, trust). It is concluded that the developed models of the credit system reflect its natural essence, fundamental differences from other forms of economic systems and provide a systemic understanding of the object; most fully and accurately reflect the meaning of the name, the phenomenon under study, and also serve as a basis for constructing a detailed definition of the concept. The obtained results contribute to the development of the scientific theory of credit and the credit system. The practical value lies in the fact that the obtained results contribute to a more precise understanding of the nature of the credit system and assist in the formation of a more adequate theoretical platform for developing a program for the development of the domestic credit system. A program for the development of the credit system with a reliable theoretical basis will be more effective both at the macro level and at the level of credit institutions.
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
The primary purpose of the study is to evaluate the impact of research output in finance, both in terms of quantity and quality, on the development of the financial sector. The study analyzed data from 2000 to 2017, including 15 countries in the Middle East, employing a two-step SYS-GMM method. The empirical findings reveal a significant correlation between the quantity of research output in finance and the overall activity and stability of the financial sector. However, when it comes to the quality of research output in finance, it only positively influences the activity while negatively and significantly affecting the stability of the financial sector. This noteworthy result suggests that highly regarded research in finance may recommend taking greater risks for national reforms, operating under the belief of “no pain, no gain”. High-quality research in finance often offers valuable insights, minimizes risk and uncertainty, and helps inform policies and reform strategies for successful implementation. It is crucial for Middle Eastern policymakers to prioritize improving both the quantity and quality of finance research and provide support to researchers. This will enable them to achieve the desired economic growth and impact the development of the financial sector. Furthermore, policymakers can also consider recommendations from well-respected economists to mitigate instability in the financial sector while pursuing necessary, albeit risky, initiatives for successful reform. To date, no other research has investigated the influence of research output in the field of finance on financial development, both in terms of quantity and quality.
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Managerial overconfidence significantly influences firm performance. The main purpose of this research is how to find the impact of managerial overconfidence along with cash holding decision might be more negatively serious on firm performance. An empirical study is conducted on a sample of 648 firms listed in the Vietnam stock market. The research predicts that the higher the level of managerial overconfidence, the greater the risk and likelihood of loss in firm value, especially with inappropriate cash holding decision. Finally, the empirical results reveal a positive correlation between managerial overconfidence and firm value. However, firms characterized by both managerial overconfidence and low cash holdings tend to exhibit poorer performance compared to others. Those results are satisfied the purpose of the research.
STOCK MARKETS
The aim of this study is to determine the financial performance of the corporate sector employing the integrated SOWIA-ELECTRE III method. In this framework, the data of 10 real sectors operating in Borsa Istanbul over the period 2016–2022 are utilized. It was observed that the financial performance indicators affecting the sector performance varied over the years and that current liability rate, price to earning ratio, firm value/EBITA and return on equity ratios were important determinants of financial performance. According to the results of the performance rankings of the sectors obtained by the ELECTRE III method, it is understood that the highest performance was realized by retail trade in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022, construction and public works in 2016 and food, beverage and tobacco in 2020. In addition, the study compared sector performance rankings with sector index return rankings and the degree of the relationship was determined by the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Accordingly, the correlation coefficients are positive, high and significant in 2017 and 2018. Accordingly, it can be said that there is a partial relationship between sector performances and sector returns. The study results show that portfolio managers and investors should give importance to financial performance analysis when making sector analysis, and economic managers that general economic conditions are important determinants in the development of sectors.
The purpose of the study is to assess the efficacy of diverse hedge ratios computed using three econometric models: OLS, VECM, and BEKK-GARCH model. This investigation centres on minimizing variance for the USD/INR currency pair within the Indian currency market, specifically during two distinct periods: the pre-COVID era and the COVID-19 era. Out-of-sample comparisons are conducted using the last 10 days of observations for both phases. The results of in- and out-of-sample evaluations demonstrate that the hedge approach established on OLS model outperforms alternative models in both periods. These findings offer valuable insights for investors, aiding in the enhancement of risk management strategies and informed decision-making with the objective of minimizing portfolio volatility and maximizing long-term returns.
The purpose of the study is to find out whether partial acquisitions enhance the shareholders’ wealth of the acquiring firms in the Indian chemical and pharmaceutical industry. Partial acquisitions are the unique form of corporate restructuring and have become the choice of most companies, which makes this study relevant to explore in the current context. The objective of the study is to evaluate the impact of partial acquisition announcements on the stock price return of the acquiring companies listed on the Indian Stock Exchange and test the statistical significance of the returns for different event windows. The novelty of the study is that it examines the announcement effects of partial acquisitions on the shareholders’ wealth of acquiring firms in the Indian chemical and pharmaceutical industry. Event Study Methodology is used with different event windows along with parametric and non-parametric tests to verify the statistical significance of returns. The research results shows that the announcements of partial acquisitions generate positive reaction in the shorter event windows of (–1, 0), (0, +1) and (–1, +1) but this reaction is only temporary and quickly diluted over the longer event window of (–10, +10). Hence, the study concluded that the shareholders can have a significant return in a shorter event window around the announcements of partial acquisitions. The results of the study are useful for various stakeholders including shareholders, investors, and managers of the companies of the selected industries in their decision-making during partial acquisitions.
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING
The paper is devoted to the construction of models for forecasting the volume of trade between Russia and the BRICS countries under sanctions. Trade between the BRICS countries is the economic foundation of their comprehensive interaction and prosperity, therefore the problem of high-quality forecasting of the volume of this trade under unprecedented Western sanctions against Russia seems to be a relevant task of econometric modeling. The aim of the study is to improve the accuracy of forecasts of Russia’s trade turnover with BRICS partners by ensuring the stability of the forecasting model in the context of sanctions pressure from Western countries and the pandemic. The econometric tool chosen is a system of simultaneous equations describing the foreign trade turnover of each country (other than Russia) using annual levels of macroeconomic factors: the GDP of the BRICS countries, Brent oil prices, the US dollar exchange rate and the pandemic indicator over the time period 2000–2022. In order to take into account structural changes in fast-growing economies such as India and China, two-phase models (switching models) were used to describe their behavioral equations in a system of simultaneous equations. As a test for the significance of structural changes, due to the small sample size after structural changes, the Chow forecast test was used. Taking into account significant structural changes (in the post-pandemic period) within the framework of switching models allowed us to increase the accuracy of the forecast of the volume of trade turnover of the Russian Federation by 2.5 times.
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)