INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
This research is devoted to the issues of reserve currency competition in the global financial system. The paper aims to investigate key sources of competitive advantages of reserve currencies in the context of the development of the global financial system towards currency multipolarity and assess how digital transformation can affect the drivers of reserve currencies’ competitive positions in the global financial system. The author uses the following methods of scientific research: analysis, synthesis, abstraction, deduction, induction, and logical method. The article notes that the financial market capacity is the key factor of reserve currency competitiveness. The author emphasizes that monetary policy instruments that provide funding for financial institutions play a key role in strengthening reserve currency competitiveness in the global financial market. The author highlights that during the COVID-19 crisis monetary policy of the central banks that issue reserve currencies stabilized the situation in the world financial system and strengthened the positions of the major reserve currencies in the global financial market. The author notes that the increase of monetary policy cooperation between central banks points to the evolution of the world financial system towards currency multipolarity. The research emphasized that the development of ecosystems driven by digital transformation can significantly affect the competitive positions of currencies in the global financial system. The author concludes that the global financial system is evolving towards currency multipolarity meaning that the US dollar will remain a leading reserve currency and at the same time other reserve currencies will likely play a bigger role. Further research of currency competition problems may investigate the impact of digital transformation on competitive positions of reserve currencies in the global financial system.
The subject of the study is the features of economic relations between income and wealth distribution/redistribution in Europe and Russia from the perspective of the need to overcome excessive socio-economic inequality. The aim of the article is to determine the level of existing socio-economic inequality, to make cross-country comparisons of income and wealth differentials in society, and then to substantiate the possibilities of applying the best practices of foreign countries to reduce socio-economic inequality in Russia. The methods of research are philosophical (dialectical, critical), general scientific (methods of scientific abstraction, the unity of the historical and logical, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analogy, classification), private scientific (economic and mathematical, statistical, functional). The theoretical significance of the study lies in the development of the theory and methodology of A. Ya. Kiruta and A. Yu. Shevyakov on excessive inequality. The recommendations proposed by the authors to reduce excessive inequality in Russia represent the practical significance. The study shows that the EU countries, which are characterized by smooth income distribution, are extremely unequal in wealth distribution. The Russian economy has excessive levels of inequality in terms of both income and wealth. At the same time, there is a polarization of Russian society and a concentration of income in the hands of the upper percipient. The Gini coefficient, the Kaitz index, and the ratio of median and minimum wages demonstrate the extreme degree of inequality in income distribution among Russians. The research investigates the losses from existing levels of inequality in the EU countries and Russia through changes in human development indices. The authors conclude that socio-economic policy aimed at reducing excessive inequality in Russia should be based on the principle of social federalism. Russia needs a comprehensive strategy to combat social stratification and a consistent policy aimed at the formation of a full-fledged middle class. The authors consider it necessary to introduce in Russia a non-taxable minimum income tax, a progressive scale of gift and inheritance taxes, and the introduction of a new wealth tax.
The paper aims to assess the scope, effectiveness and key instruments of monetary policy in advanced and emerging markets during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodological basis of the study was the reports of the central banks of the sample countries and the data of international organizations and financial market participants on monetary policies. The author assesses the scope of financial support for the economy by the central banks of the largest advanced and emerging markets during the crisis, including the size and share of quantitative easing in its total volume. The study identifies and characterizes the main groups of monetary policy measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, and also shows the monetary policy differences of advanced and emerging economies during the pandemic. The paper highlights larger direct financial support from the central banks of advanced countries. The difference in monetary policy instruments is that advanced economies use traditional monetary policy measures while emerging economies widely apply unconventional monetary policy instruments, primarily quantitative easing. The article presents a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of monetary policy in China and Russia. The author concludes that the consequences of the monetary policy pursued by advanced countries in 2020 may lead to long-term stagnation in these countries and the rapid recovery of emerging markets due to the inflow of speculative capital from advanced countries. The study provides a post-pandemic forecast of the general direction of monetary policy and its driving factors. Enormous direct financial support, primarily through quantitative easing, from the central banks of advanced countries in 2020 had a positive impact on the economy in the short run, but the long-term consequences of such policies require further research.
The subject of the analysis is to check the validity of the Armey curve which is frequently used in the scientific literature and to establish the optimal level of the public sector. The aim of the present study is to analyze the impact of the public sector through public expenditure on the possibility of achieving economic growth. The estimation is based on annual data for the period 2006–2019 of selected Balkan countries and Russia. The authors apply the ordinary least squares (OLS) method for a nonlinear regression model. The conclusion is that the Armey curve is valid for some of the countries involved in the research among which Serbia, North Macedonia and Russia. The public expenditure to Gross Domestic Product ratio’s threshold value, which maximizes economic growth, ranges from 32.94 to 42.37%. The average share of public expenditure in the analyzed countries is approximately equal to the threshold values that are obtained which is indicative of achievement to some extent the desired economic performance. However, the results of the study show that the growth of the public sector and its impact on economic development should not be underestimated.
Intellectual capital is becoming increasingly important in financial decisions made by managers in the information-based environment. However, only a small portion of a company’s total assets is represented by intangible assets (such as concessions, licenses, patents, and trademarks). The current research investigates the relationship between an organization’s Intellectual capital and its health. A new model — Modified Extended Value-added Intellectual Capital Coefficient — was also proposed. The findings were compared with the two existing models, namely, Value Added Intellectual Coefficient and Modified Value Added Intellectual Coefficient. Panel data regression is used to assess the performance of 25 Indian pharmaceutical and drug companies throughout the period 2010–2019. Human capital efficiency, structural capital efficiency, and relational capital efficiency have been proven to have a substantial positive correlation with return on assets (ROA). In addition, a negative yet significant link exists between organizational capital efficiency and a company’s profitability. Under the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient, human capital and structural capital efficiency do not affect the market value to book value. The market value-to-book value, on the other hand, is positively impacted by capital employed efficiency.
WORLD TRADE SYSTEM
The article presents an assessment of the factors influencing the balanced foreign trade ratio of foreign economic relations on the basis of the author’s methodological approach on the example of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The relevance of the study is due to the importance of optimizing foreign trade policy through an econometric assessment of factors affecting the balance of foreign trade ratio. The aim of the study is to form a model of econometric assessment of factors affecting the level of development of balanced foreign economic relations in conditions of uncertainty. The author uses entropy, statistical and econometric methods, including coefficient and regression analyses. The paper presents a regression analysis of the relationship between the balance of foreign trade activity, the entropy of exports and imports, the real and nominal effective exchange rate of the national currency against foreign currencies, the degree of openness of the economy, and assessment using the EViews software package. The synthesis of the theoretical and methodological apparatus presented in the modeling of factors affecting the balance of foreign trade activity constitutes the scientific novelty of the research. The study revealed that an increase in the nominal and effective exchange rate of the national currency of each country in relation to foreign currencies, as well as the degree of openness of the economy, significantly increases the coefficient of balanced foreign trade activity. The author concludes that by determining the entropy, quantity and usefulness of information on the share of the main import or export partner countries of the country under study, it is possible to assess the foreign trade activities of the countries, as well as the influence of the balanced coefficient of foreign trade on the nominal and effective exchange rate of the national currency in relation to foreign currencies. The results of the study can be used in subsequent studies to assess the factors affecting the level of development of balanced foreign economic relations of countries, and as a methodological basis for the policy of optimizing the management of the country’s economy.
STOCK MARKET
This paper aims to examine how corporate insider trading influences trading patterns of foreign and institutional investors especially in firms with high discretionary accruals and low book-to-market ratios as proxies for information uncertainty. This study uses methods such as trading patterns of informed traders who are considered to gather more precise information before and after insider trading and tests how insider trading affects informed traders. The results of this study provide evidence that insider trading is likely to influence informed traders’ trading patterns. After controlling for firm-specific factors, this study finds that the event and the amount of insider trading affect significantly foreign and institutional trading patterns. Furthermore, the relation between informed trading and insider trading is more enhanced when firms have a high level of discretionary accruals and a low book-to-market ratio. Prior studies have focused on the association between abnormal returns of insider trading and types of insider information disseminated, while informed trading patterns and insider trading with information uncertainty have not been specifically considered. This study enables practitioners to interpret corporate insider trading with information uncertainty on informed trading patterns.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the stock markets of many countries. Understanding the impact of this pandemic on industries is an important and relevant basis for a thorough explanation of stock market movements during this period. The aim of this study is to examine how stock returns of non-financial sectors in Vietnam’s stock market react to information about the COVID-19 pandemic. The event study method is applied to analyze three main events related to the emergence and outbreak of this pandemic in Vietnam in 2020. The first event (January 23, 2020) and the second event (March 6, 2020), respectively, were the time when Vietnam officially announced that it had recorded the first case positive for COVID-19 in the Hochiminh city and Hanoi. The third event is on March 30, 2020, Vietnam announced that it will apply a blockade order in all provinces and cities nationwide to limit the outbreak of this pandemic. Closing price data from January 1, 2019 to April 14, 2020 for five industry indexes (Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services, Industry and Utilities), used in this study. The results show that the stock prices of all five sectors reacted in the same meaningful direction (negative/positive) after the event that Vietnam confirmed the first patient confirmed with COVID-19 in Hochiminh city and the nationwide blockade event was announced, proving that the stock market is affected by psychology. In industries, Industry and Consumer Services are the two sectors that respond the most to events, but Basic materials are the least affected. The study found that the Consumer Goods industry had the most positive results in the five industries for the following two events; The Utilities industry reacted negatively to the first information that could create potential risks of a COVID-19 outbreak in the community, especially in the two major economic centers of Vietnam. Conclusions from this study show that Vietnam’s stock market is inefficient, research results and insights on industry responses to disease information contribute to strategic planning for policymakers and investors in the future.
TAX POlICY
The subject of the research is the methodology and practice of initiative budgeting (the Russian term for participatory budgeting) as applied to taxation. The relevance of the study is explained by the fact that the experience accumulated in Russia allows us to speak about the productivity of the initiative budgeting methodology in relation to other areas of public finance. The initiative budgeting methodology is part of a more general theory of citizens’ participation in governance and budget decision-making, which is being formed in Russian and foreign studies. The article aims to study the emergence of fiscal effects of applying the methodology of initiative budgeting in public finance and to develop proposals on this basis aimed at finding reserves for increasing local budget revenues. To formulate conclusions and recommendations, the authors use methods such as content analysis of scientific publications on the development of participatory budgeting practices abroad and logical generalization. The study substantiates that one of the promising practices of initiative budgeting may be the participation of citizens in decision-making on the allocation of part of the expenditures of local budgets to co-finance projects of initiative budgeting. At the same time, additional positive effects appear in the form of increased motivation for collection and an overall increase in the volume of local taxes and fees. Thus, there is a productive integration of the initiative budgeting methodology and tax policy at the local level. The authors propose possible strategies for introducing an initiative budgeting experiment in Russian regions. The authors conclude that the initiative budgeting methodology allows creating ways to motivate local governments and citizens to increase local budget revenues. There is a prospect of expanding the scope of application of initiative budgeting tools to solve the financial problems of municipalities.
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
The subject of the research is the Russian financial market. The aim of the study is to develop a cognitive model of the Russian financial market to assess the security of its functioning. The relevance of the study is due to the need to assess the reaction of the national financial market to various exogenous and endogenous stressors in the face of growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new artificial restrictions on the access of domestic investors to foreign sources of capital. The belonging of modern financial markets to complex adaptive systems consisting of elements and relationships, the formal description of the dynamics of which is very problematic, determines the advisability of using cognitive analysis and modeling methods in the process of assessing the safety of their functioning. A feature of the study is that when building a cognitive model of the national financial market, the author uses as the main elements not individual actors of the financial market, but macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the state of the financial market and the economy as a whole. The actor-network structure of the national financial market presented in this way makes it possible to consider the high degree of interpenetration of the financial and real sectors, which is characteristic of the modern economy. The novelty of the paper lies in the development of tools for analyzing the dynamics of the financial market as a result of constructing a methodological framework for studying the security of its functioning based on cognitive modeling. The developed cognitive model shows how the identified macro-aggregates change as a result of the spread of a positive or negative impulse, allowing to highlight the critical factors ensuring the sustainable functioning of the financial market. The author concludes that in the case of a balanced state of the considered macroeconomic aggregates, the existing hierarchical structure of the Russian financial market makes it possible to localize and neutralize crisis phenomena of an endogenous nature. At the same time, within the framework of the existing networks of the interaction of the financial market, exogenous stress impulses will intensify and lead to a violation of its effective performance of the function of capital circulation. The practical significance of the research results lies in the ability to determine the stabilizing processes and mechanisms operating in the economy as a whole and in the financial sector in particular, and in their absence, to identify the possibilities for their design that can increase the systemic security of the functioning of the country’s financial market.
INVESTMENT POlICY
Production and consumption systems need radical innovations to meet the challenges of the post-industrial world. The questions of how systemic innovations or changes in socio-technical systems are implemented and in what form the principles and mechanisms of macro-strategic management of them can be organized are very relevant. Equally relevant is the issue of ensuring the inflow of resources for technological development, such as public funding or private capital. The aim of the article is to study a new model for the implementation of innovations in socio-technical systems based on a system dynamics approach. The author applies methods of a systematic approach to the analysis of economic processes and phenomena, methods of statistical and econometric analysis, methods of grouping and classification, economic and mathematical modeling, methods of comparative historical and cross-country analysis, forecasting methods and expert judgments. The article examines the methodological principles and mechanisms of macro-strategic management of the dynamics of technological innovation systems and ensuring their financial support. The author proposes a new methodological approach based on system dynamics, which combines two modern concepts of technological innovation systems management: the concept of “innovation engines”, based on the research on new technological innovation systems, and the concept of a “three-vector transition module”. A model of the emergence or decline of technological innovation systems in the context of various transitional processes (changes) in socio-technical systems is identified. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of new and improvement of the key methodological approaches currently used for the strategic management of the dynamics of technological innovation systems. The conclusions of the article show that the new methodological approach proposed by the author provides an important first step towards the study of more formalized models for studying the dynamics of technological innovation systems.
PENSION SYSTEM
The objective of the study is to analyze the effectiveness of the principles of regular indexation of insurance pensions practiced in the Russian pension system, as well as their compliance with the existing similar practice in other countries with pension provision and insurance pension systems. In international practice, these principles correspond to the initial belonging of these systems to one of two basic pension models — continental and Danish (Anglo-Saxon). With an annual increase in pension payments, the governments of countries with pension systems of the first model are guided by changes in the average wage in the economy, the second model — by the consumer price index. The aim of the study is to determine the most optimal formula for indexing insurance pensions in the Russian Federation. The authors use general scientific methods: analysis, modeling and comparison. The article analyzes the practice of indexing pensions that has developed in the Russian Federation and provides a calculation of the results of the valorization of such payments in the early 2000s. It also provides a theoretical justification for the need for the transitions to the indexation of pensions in accordance with the wage index in the economy. The study gives a comparative retrospective analysis of the level of indexation of pensions based on the consumer price index and the index of wage changes. This analysis is based on data from official statistical observations of inflation between 2011 and 2021, as well as the growth of income of employees. As a result of the study, the authors conclude that the annual pension indexation scheme adopted in Russia does not correspond to the modality of the domestic pension system and does not allow ensuring the standard replacement rate. The authors propose their own methodology for calculating the indexation coefficient based on the principles of the functioning of the domestic pension system as a continental-type insurance pension system. In addition, the article provides a calculation of the sources of funding for pension indexation in accordance with changes in wages in the economy.
The rapid development of modern self-employment, the massive transition from employment to self-employment and vice versa is a challenge for traditional pension systems. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) responded by adopting compulsory state pension schemes for the self-employed shared with employees. Russia following global trends with a small-time lag, unlike others, provides an unconditional guarantee of social pensions. It is all the more important to study the advanced international experience in attracting the self-employed to pension insurance. This is the aim of the study. Research tasks are as follows: to identify different approaches to organizing pension insurance for the self-employed across OECD countries, to examine the mechanisms and factors arising, and to evaluate their performance. The research method is cluster analysis of the generated self-employed pensions parametric indicators database according to OECD data (2019–2021) (18 indicators as part of clustering, architecture, finance, performance factors) for 28 countries. The study identifies 3 clusters (approaches) to the organization of pension provision for the self-employed: 1 — employee-like mandatory contributions to state pension schemes; 2 — mandatory contributions with advantages; 3 — voluntary pension contributions with advantages. In general, none of the approaches can be called “the best”. The effectiveness of pension decreases with any form of low-income self-employed inclusion in income-based pension schemes, as well as dependent self-employment. The author concludes that for Russia alternative options for self-employed pensions are quasi-mandatory pension insurance, self-employed employee-like participation in voluntary funded pension schemes only, state co-financing, practical training in financial literacy without going into the depth of financial knowledge. Discussion for further research is a detailed study of the application of the results into self-employed pension insurance practice in Russia.
INSURANCE
With the development of the financial industry market, China’s attention has been drawn to the role of insurance and economic development in the insurance industry. The aim of the paper is to determine the impact and development of the insurance industry of the regional economy; formulate an appropriate policy for the insurance industry. The tasks of the study are to analyze the contribution of the insurance industry to the economic development of China and the impact of property and life insurance on economic growth in the region. The author applies methods such as literature analysis and empirical research. Reference samples selected for the study form a theoretical basis. The paper defines the study model, study variables, and statistics. Based on the research on the economic growth theory, the author uses the endogenous economic growth model to conduct empirical research and test the data of various regions in China from 2013 to 2019. The author uses statistics to conduct empirical analysis and report research findings and interprets empirical results using comparison methods and graphs. The study reveals that life insurance and property insurance are conducive to the steady growth of China’s economy, reduce economic risks, promote the development of investment and exports, and promote economic growth. The development of the insurance industry has realized the collection of funds and supported the development of regional industries, and has improved the efficiency of the use of funds. The author concludes that the development of policies of the insurance industry in different regions and the development of the adaptive insurance business are more conducive to economic stability and growth. The findings of the study can be applied to countries with different economic development by region, such as Russia.
FINANCIAL SECURITY
Restrictive measures, or so-called “sanctions”, were introduced by the countries of the European Union against the Russian Federation, its citizens, and legal entities in 2014. The introduction of restrictive measures was initially seen as a threat to Russia’s economic security and sovereignty, so the Russian authorities were forced to respond by introducing retaliatory measures, or counter-sanctions. The subject of this article is the various possibilities for defending or challenging the imposed restrictive measures provided for by the legislation of the European Union and its member States, as well as the most famous and significant cases of appealing against these sanctions. The aim of the study is to systematize various ways of challenging restrictive measures in the bodies of the European Union, to develop a mechanism for such a challenge, as well as to collect statistical information on completed cases in which sanctions against certain persons were successfully challenged, or the lifting of restrictive measures was refused. The relevance of the topic is expressed in the unrelenting pressure of foreign states on the sovereignty and economic security of Russia. The scientific novelty is due to the lack of systematic research on the mechanisms for challenging sanctions. The authors apply descriptive, historical, and comparative analysis methods. The authors identified a certain mechanism of opportunities and tools for challenging restrictive measures in the bodies of the European Union, as well as defined a chain of actions to launch an appeal mechanism for certain restrictive measures. The authors conclude that stakeholders should initiate and participate in sanctions appeal procedures as there is good practice in lifting restrictive measures.
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)