Subject of article - the dynamics of the integrated Business Activity Index of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 10 main areas of the national economy and the Index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity of Rosstat (Rosstat Index) from 2018 to July 2022 inclusive. Growth factors and a list of key macro indicators that determine the level of business activity in the relevant sectors of the economy, as well as the results of calculating the weights of these sectors, are considered.
The aim of the article is to substantiate the advantages of the methodology for constructing the IE RAS Index, which includes development indicators of 10 areas of the national economy, in comparison with the Rosstat Index. Theoretical studies are based on practical calculations performed on the basis of official statistical reporting, and a comparative analysis of the results with the dynamics of the Rosstat Index. Research period: post-crisis 2018–2019, pandemic and post-pandemic 2020–2021 and initial stage of the mobilization period for the economy - January-July 2022. To calculate the IE RAS Index, the method of construction of integral estimates of macroeconomic dynamics, correlation analysis, as well as a matrix of coefficients of pair correlation for determination of index weights are used, which is a convincing justification of scientific novelty of the proposed methodology of construction and practical use of the IE RAS Index. Based on a comparative analysis of the dynamics of the indices, it was found that the maximum drop in the IE RAS Index and the Rosstat Index was observed in 2020, and the maximum growth was observed in the post-pandemic 2021. Moreover, according to the IE RAS methodology, larger parameters and earlier dates for the start of decline and growth of business activity in comparison with the Rosstat Index were recorded. As a result, new convincing evidence of the advantages of the IE RAS Index was obtained, the main of which is a more reliable and accurate determination of the critical moments of a change in the business activity trend and, accordingly, the timing of the onset and overcoming of crisis processes in socio-economic development. The authors conclude that, in the new geopolitical reality, it is necessary to include the IE RAS Index as a target indicator for the country’s ability to secure state sovereignty.

The priority goal of the country’s top leadership is to ensure sustainable socio-economic development of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and improve the quality of life of their population. In a challenging geopolitical situation, achieving this goal is difficult. Only under the condition of an effective system of public administration is it possible to solve the main socio-economic problems in the Russian regions. This requires linking the size of collective incentive payments to regional civil servants to the achieved level of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The foregoing predetermined the relevance of the research topic. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate the bonus calculation mechanism for the executive branch employees of the Russian regions, depending on the assessment of their ability to work as part of a team to achieve results, i. e. to perform their duties to a high standard. This involves the use of modern methods of economic and mathematical modeling, designed in this case to ensure the objectivity of assessment of the collective and individual performance (efficiency) of regional civil servants. This is the main scientific novelty of the paper. The practical implementation of the mechanism of collective and individual incentives for regional civil servants will create the preconditions for increasing the wages of such employees in all regions of the Russian Federation. Thus, the coordinated actions of civil servants from different ministries and departments of the Russian subsidized regions in the future will help increase their financial security and transition to the group of donor regions, and ultimately will create the possibility of increasing budget expenditures on wages for the executive branch employees.

The macroprudential policy of central banks plays a key role in ensuring financial stability not only at the level of individual states but also on the scale of the entire global economy. In this regard, adequate measurement of its effectiveness is an urgent task for national and supranational financial regulatory authorities. The present study is focused on solving this problem. The purpose of the study is to develop indicators and criteria for a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of countries’ macroprudential policies, allowing for a cross-country analysis of this effectiveness and identifying the best global practices in macroprudential regulation. The study is based on the consolidation of the market and institutional approaches to measuring financial stability, as well as on the use of normative methods and methods of comparative economic analysis. As a result of the study, new indicators for diagnosing the effectiveness of macroprudential policy have been developed. Criteria are proposed to determine the international positions of countries in terms of the level of general, market, and institutional effectiveness of the macroprudential policy. Testing of the developed indicators and criteria was carried out for 180 countries for the period 1998–2019. The developed indicators and criteria for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy differ from the existing ones in a comprehensive manner, since they take into account the stability of financial markets and financial systems at the same time. They are also more representative as they include a wider range of parameters taken into account in financial stability calculations.

The main objective of this article is to study the impact of a scandal with the Vice Chairman of the Founding Board - VCFB (former member of the Board of Directors - BoD) and the former General Manager of Asia Commercial Bank (ACB) on the daily returns of shares of 9 sectors of the Vietnam’s stock market. The event study method is used for each industry with many different event windows. Research results show that the announcement of an arrest warrant is an entirely unexpected event for the stock market because no industry reacts significantly in the days before the event. The reaction of industries was strongest 5 days after the event for the Banking and Finance industries and 2 days after the event for non-financial industries. The conclusion of the study shows that although the information is directly related to one bank - ACB, its spillover effects have covered all nine industries including the financial and non-financial industries on the Vietnam stock market (VST). The nature of cross-ownership among commercial banks in Vietnam (CB Vietnam) explains that negative information only creates a spillover effect within the industry but does not have a competitive effect in this industry. Social networks amplify herd mentality and spillover effects, negatively impacting the financial and non-financial industries in the stock market.

The topic of digital services tax (DST), applied in a number of foreign jurisdictions, remains relevant, and there is an active discussion in the scientific community on the advisability of introducing such a tax in Russia. The purpose of the study is to characterize the directions of the impact of such a tax on economic growth for the justification of the expediency of its introduction in Russia. The hypothesis is that the introduction of indirect DST will not lead to the withdrawal of part of the property of foreign digital giants in favor of the Russian budget, since the tax burden will be completely transferred to Russian consumers of these services, which in turn will have a negative impact on the economic growth of the domestic economy. The study of the theoretical foundations of DST and the practice of its application in foreign countries has revealed its inconsistency with the principles of neutrality and non-discrimination of taxation, the complexity of tax administration. Using economic and mathematical tools, a model was developed for transferring the tax burden when introducing DST from a foreign company to Russian clients of the platform and end consumers in Russia. A simulation experiment using Airbnb as an example showed that if a digital tax of 3% is introduced in Russia, Airbnb’s profit indicator is potentially expected to grow (which will be taxed in the Netherlands); decrease in profits of Russian Airbnb clients (Russian hotels); increase in Airbnb’s end-customer costs. Presumably, tolerable scenario is that the full burden of the digital tax will be passed on to domestic taxpayers due to the indirect nature of the digital tax. As a result of the study, the hypothesis about the lack of economic feasibility of introducing indirect DST in Russia was confirmed.

Efficiency of economic activity of 85 regions of the Russian Federation is analyzed in this article. The purpose of the research is assessment the interregional inequality of the Russian regions. The analysis was based on the total tax revenues collected within all the Russian regions. The research was based on methods of analysis and synthesis, analogy and generalization, comparison and comparison, induction and deduction, economic-mathematical and statistical methods of estimation of income inequality. For its implementation, coefficients and indices were used: Lorentz, Ginny, Robin Hood, Theil, Atkinson, and Herfindahl-Hirschman. Part of the analysis was performed in the analytical module of the information system “Taxes of the Russian Federation”. Based on the Russian Federation subjects’ economic activity model, it is concluded that the total tax revenues collected on regions reflect the effectiveness of its functioning. A more accurate picture is described with the quotient of the tax revenues’ division by the labor resources engaged in their creation. Based on the methods used and data provided by the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation and Rosstat, was made of the uniformity of tax revenue collection among 85 subjects of the Russian Federation in the period from 2015 to 2020, all applied coefficients and indices were calculated. Using the share of employed population and tax revenues, the Lorenz curves and size diagrams (box plot) for the ratio of these shares (r) in the period under consideration are constructed and the emissions (outlier) in the distribution of tax revenues are determined. The dynamics of tax revenues and their variation are estimated. The obtained values of inequality indicators and indices showed that the distribution of tax revenues among 85 regions of the Russian Federation is uneven. Simultaneously, this situation is evident throughout the period under review. The subjects whose tax income values can be attributed to outliers have been identified. It is concluded that the problem of uneven development of regions of the country is traced through centuries. A way out of this situation is to use differentiated financial and tax policies in relation to different regions of the country.

The Indian banking sector has reached greater heights in recent days because of adopting and involving in the Digitalisation of banking. Though India is moving forward with digitalisation process, our nation faces several setbacks and opposition, which has to be crossed specifically in the rural banking system. The current research work has attempted to examine these challenges and setbacks which are found commonly in rural banking digitalisation. This paper aims in analysing the impacts and influences of Digitalisation in rural banks of Madurai city, Tamil Nadu. Moreover, the study is surveying multiple influencing factors like literacy rate, education qualification, income quality, gender equality and socio-economic position. Finally, some suggestions and conceptions to increase the maximum reach of knowledge and importance regarding the Digitalisation of banks in rural regions are suggested to the government and banking sectors. Regional based loan schemes and mechanisms and procedures must be encouraged by banks. Income assessment, repayable capacity in the rural areas of Madurai has to be initiated. The study focuses on research-based on quantitative tools. The Study aims in explaining the various positive outcomes of bank digitalisation via digital banking and financial inclusion here in India. The present study provides the awareness of the digital world and the advantages of adopting them in rural India for various banking services. The paper concludes that there is a need for digital establishments and digital banking in most rural areas all over India.

The author clarified the degree of achievement of the credit market equilibrium in the conditions of information asymmetry and active digitalization of processes in activity of credit market participants. The subject of research is the economic and technological conditions for achieving credit rationing equilibrium. The purpose of the research is to highlight the nature of the impact of digitalization on the degree of achieving equilibrium in the credit market in the context of digitalization. The author focuses on the new conditions of functioning of the credit market, when the current digitalization allows to significantly complement the credit profile of borrowers, and new participants appear in the credit market. The objective of research is assessment of compliance of theoretical postulates on achieving the credit rationing equilibrium in the context of digitalization of processes associated with the lending. The authors’ hypothesis is that the credit market has the potential to increase the return on a loan per currency unit of borrowers’ loans, and the current estimates of the of defaults borrowers’ probability, interest rates are “biased”. As the main methods, the author used systematic and logical methods, which made it possible to consider the credit market equilibrium in terms of the economic relationships between its participants and the achieved economic indicators. As a result of the analysis of theoretical concept of credit rationing equilibrium, taking into account the identified qualitative changes, that take place in the credit market in the context of digitalization. The author concludes that is the potential increase the rate of return on credit operations. Extending the borrower credit data with alternative, non-credit sources, as expected, allows to get more accurate creditworthiness assessment. The results of the research to some extent serve as a rationale for possible decisions of central banks to expand the traditional sources of borrowers’ credit histories, reconfigure the existing information exchange architecture in the credit market.

Machine learning methods have been successful in various aspects of bank lending. Banks have accumulated huge amounts of data about borrowers over the years of application. On the one hand, this made it possible to predict borrower behavior more accurately, on the other, it gave rise to the problem a problem of data redundancy, which greatly complicates the model development. Methods of feature selection, which allows to improve the quality of models, are apply to solve this problem. Feature selection methods can be divided into three main types: filters, wrappers, and embedded methods. Filters are simple and time-efficient methods that may help discover one-dimensional relations. Wrappers and embedded methods are more effective in feature selection, because they account for multi-dimensional relationships, but these methods are resource-consuming and may fail to process large samples with many features. In this article, the authors propose a combined feature selection scheme (CFSS), in which the first stages of selection use coarse filters, and on the final — wrappers for high-quality selection. This architecture lets us increase the quality of selection and reduce the time necessary to process large multi-dimensional samples, which are used in the development of industrial models. Experiments conducted by authors for four types of bank modelling tasks (survey scoring, behavioral scoring, customer response to cross-selling, and delayed debt collection) have shown that the proposed method better than classical methods containing only filters or only wrappers.

There is need for an additional source of finance in form of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Indian manufacturing sector due to its long-term engagement between the investors and the host country. Further FDI in the manufacturing sector is gaining importance because of the benefits the manufacturing sector reaps as a result of technology spillover brought through FDI. Therefore the objective of the study is to assess the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the manufacturing sector output of the Indian economy for the period of 1991–2020. Methods such as bounds test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality are used to study the impact of FDI and the interaction of FDI and human capital as two different variables on the output of the manufacturing sector in the Indian economy. Also, the technology-enhancing effect of FDI is addressed in the current study. The results of the study reveal that the inflow of FDI leads to an increase in manufacturing sector output. Further, it concludes that the higher the level of education (human capital) and the greater the technology gap between host and home country, the more is the technology spillover, and hence more prominent is the impact of FDI on the output of the manufacturing sector.

More complex activities, financial reporting, and risk aggregation of banking groups increase the relevance of research on their financial stability. The purpose of our study is to analyze the effectiveness of banking groups’ regulation in the Russian Federation and to develop proposals for its optimization. The scientific novelty includes the identification and proof of the hypothesis of the dependence of the banking groups’ financial stability on the level of the group control, as well as measures to improve the regulation of activities and financial stability of banking groups in Russia. The research methodology is based on a linear model on panel data (fixed effects models, random effects models, and pool models). The empirical base of the study includes data on the 26 largest Russian banking groups and parent credit institutions of banking groups from 2010 to 2020. A hypothesis was put forward that the financial stability of the banking group depends on the effectiveness of the regulatory control within the group. To confirm the hypothesis, the authors assessed the financial stability of banking groups using the Z_score, while the banking groups were divided into two pools depending on the level of regulatory control. As a result, this hypothesis was confirmed. For banking groups with a high level of regulatory control, a model of financial stability and the factors that have the greatest impact on it were identified. The authors suggested the following measures to improve the regulation and financial reporting of the banking groups: 1) to expand the regulatory consolidation of the reporting of banking groups to the level of accounting, which will create the basis for a complete risk assessment; 2) to clearly define approaches to formalizing the assessment and management of the forced financial support risks for the group companies; 3) to unify the disclosure by banking groups of information about risks, methods for their assessment and management, including the relationship with the business model of activity. These measures are aimed at improving the risk management of credit institutions.

The main aim of this research study is to inspect the relationship between interest rate (monetary policy) and bank profitability, along with some bank specific, industry specific, and macroeconomic variables. The research methodology includes balanced panel data comprising 50 Indian scheduled commercial banks for 12 years from 2008 to 2020. Fixed effect and random effect model regression have been used to know the required relationship. Due to the presence of heteroskedasticity, the results for robust standard error have been presented. The result shows a positive association between the interest rate spread and two banks’ profitability indicator return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) while interest rate has an insignificant negative relationship on bank profitability. The study concludes that the central bank can increase or decrease the interest spread to maintain the surplus or deficit liquidity problem in the economy. Banks are advised to make the appropriate change in lending rate or deposit rate with respect to policy rate to make transmission channel efficient. Also, identify some other factors that affect the bank’s profitability. It will help the bank manager to improve the bank’s profitability.

The sustainable development of the national economy, taking into account the creation of mechanisms for ensuring economic security, technological sovereignty and preventing threats to the localization of import supplies of final and intermediate consumption goods, is one of the priority directions of economic policy in the conditions of systemic restrictions formed under the pressure of sanctions. In this regard, the study of the key externalities generated within the framework of the sanctions confrontation is an extremely popular task, both for science and practice. In this paper, the authors pay attention to both the actualization of the problem posed and an overview of some of the costs and benefits that can be extracted in the new reality for the national economic system of the Russian Federation. The main purpose of the study is to systematize and analyze the key parameters of economic growth in the Russian Federation under the sanctions pressure of the 2022 model and substantiate the policy of intensification of import substitution as a key mechanism for ensuring sustainable development in the medium and long term in the new reality. The subject of the study is the restrictions imposed by a number of Western countries in relation to the Russian economy, the costs they generate and the opportunities for building a new model of economic growth. As the main results of the study, it is necessary to highlight the systematization of sanctions and restrictions imposed on Russia in 2022; identified trends in the formation of key macroeconomic parameters of the Russian economy, revealing the features of labor market development, GDP formation, investment and business activity, etc.; systematization of risks and prospects of economic growth, including the projection of theoretical models of economic dynamics (IS-LM, AD-AS) on the received estimates; identification of the dependence of the national economy of the Russian Federation on the import of technologies and intermediate/final consumption goods, followed by justification and development of a model to stimulate the policy of import substitution within the framework of the activation of NTR.

The relevance of the research topic is confirmed by the fact that in the context of globalization, job search and job loss have become rather common. Therefore, the working-age population needs to be protected from job loss when looking for a new job. The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for calculating the job loss insurance rate for citizens. The methodology is based on an actuarial approach that allows a comparison of the net rate and the gross rate paid by the insured. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the consideration of the net rate based on the reasons for employee termination, and the analysis of the possibilities of distributing the net rate between the employee and the employer. Main research methods include tabular and graphical methods, analysis and synthesis, comparison, induction, and deduction. As a result of the introduction of job loss insurance, the social protection of the population in the context of COVID‑19 is being strengthened, and opportunities for temporary coverage of expenses during the job search period are being increased. The author concludes that this type of insurance is promising in a market economy and may become not only a new and interesting insurance product but also an effective tool for the social protection of the population in regions with high labor market turbulence.

Since the Russian Agency for Export Credit and Investment Insurance (EXIAR) was established in 2011, only a few scientists have bothered to substantiate of the Agency’s economic policy. The aim of the paper is to investigate the role of EXIAR economic policy in promoting the growth of Russia’s export trade. The current study conducts methods such as statistical, comparative and empirical analysis of panel data on the basis of econometric models. The results of the research suggest that export credit insurance can be useful for the development of Russian export trade, especially for exports to high-risk developing countries and to high-value-added Russian exporting enterprises, such as machinery, electrical and chemical-pharmaceutical industries. The authors suggest that Russia should raise the status of export credit insurance, increase the penetration rate of high-tech goods into key countries-importers, improve the foreign trade oppor tunities of exporting enterprises.

The relevance of the topic of the article is due, first, to the growing geopolitical challenges and threats, escalation of international sanctions that undermine the foundations of economic and financial sovereignty of Russia, and, second, to the need to develop science-based solutions, ensuring the ability of the national financial system to maintain stability and independence from external shocks. The purpose of the research is to identify the current problems of Russia’s financial sovereignty and to develop reasoned proposals to ensure it in the context of the international sanction’s matrix. The novelty of the research is that the authors for the first time presented and described a matrix of international sanctions against the financial sovereignty of Russia, as well as developed economically feasible recommendations for its protection in modern conditions. When preparing the theoretical section of the publication, a group of general scientific methods was used: observation, comparison, measurement, analysis and synthesis, method of logical reasoning, critical review of scientific literature and professional publications. In the preparation of the analytical section and development specific recommendations, specific scientific methods (static analysis, graphical method) were used, expert method was used to form scenarios for assessing the future state of the financial sovereignty. The essence of the concept of “financial sovereignty” in the context of the international sanction’s matrix was considered. Available official state and other verified statistics of the number and structure of sanctions against the financial system was collected and processed, as well as points (zones) of application of their destructive influence was identified. As conclusions, expert judgments were formulated on possible tools to protect financial sovereignty and assessed their positive and negative effects, taking into account the volatility of sanctions. The materials of this research can be used as a basis for further justification of promising solutions to protect national financial sovereignty, taking into account foreign economic and military-political trends. The results of the research will be useful to experts in the sphere of state regulation of the national financial system, as well as specialists in the formation of forecasts of socio-economic development of the state.

The study of the processes of planning and accounting of budget expenditures in the context of digitalization and the development of the processes of classification and coding of costs is an important urgent task of improving public financial management. The purpose of the study is to generalize the classification of the country’s budget expenditures to justify the need for changes in the order of planning and cost accounting on digital platforms. The research methods included: analysis and synthesis; regression analysis; modeling; scientific abstraction; logical method. The novelty lies in the proposed logical justification of the provisions of the theory of financial informatics as a synthesis of two scientific disciplines — the theory of finance and the theory of computer science. The author’s view on the digital content of the classification of budget expenditures is proposed, which represents a multi-dimensional hierarchical system for constructing a graph of budget expenditures. Regression models of the dependence of the resource intensity of the conditional classification budget code of expenditures on the quality of financial management of the GRBS have been developed. The conclusions of the study confirmed the hypothesis that the more detailed the differentiation (classification) of budget expenditures, the more opportunities there are for competent organization and management of their financing processes, which is facilitated by the development of ICT. The recommendations are reduced to the need for further research of the scientific and applied provisions of the development and organization of the functioning of digital platforms in the system of public financial management to improve the efficiency of the use of the country’s budget resources. Further development of scientific and applied methodological provisions for the development of the electronic budget is required in order to turn it into a form of the digital budget of the country.

In this paper, we have constructed a VAR model to identify and assess the impact of real interest rate shocks, real estate demand, oil prices, uncertainty, and aggregate business activity on residential real estate prices in Russia. The relevance of the research is due to the following: the dynamics of real estate prices determines the consumer and investment behavior of households, and serious fluctuations in real estate prices lead to adverse consequences in many areas of life, so more and more researchers are asking questions about the presence of bubbles in the real estate market, which can be dangerous to the stability of the economy. In addition, a sharp increase in the cost of housing in Russia in 2020 is an open question for researchers. Our goal is to determine what factors caused the rise in real estate prices in Russia in the time interval from the Q1 of 2000 to the Q2 of 2022. A VAR model with a Cholesky decomposition was used for the evaluation. Several specifications were considered with the inclusion of the real oil price as an exogenous variable and a set of endogenous variables: real GDP, real interest rate, uncertainty index and housing price index. The main conclusion of the paper is that the housing market is sensitive to identified macroeconomic shocks, and a decrease in the interest rate leads to an increase in demand and real estate prices. The estimate of the long-term elasticity of housing prices for oil prices was 0.35, the dynamics of oil prices explained a significant proportion of the variation in real estate prices, but the predominant role in housing price fluctuations is given to housing demand shocks. The housing demand shocks in Russia itself had a negligible impact on GDP.