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Finance: Theory and Practice

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Vol 27, No 2 (2023)
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INVESTMENT POlICY

6-16 533
Abstract

The purpose of this study is to explain the impact of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Russian currency on the inflow of FDI from the European Union to the Russian Federation in the period 2014–2020 in order to provide practical recommendations for the development of investment policy and FDI attraction. The author used a threestage methodology, including theoretical, statistical and empirical analyses. The theoretical positions of the influence of the value of the currency on the inflow of various types of FDI into the national economy are determined. It has been established that the increase in the value of the currency has a positive effect on the inflow of FDI and on industries focused on the domestic market of the country. The weakening of the real exchange rate of the ruble generally had a negative impact on FDI inflows into the Russian market. With the fall in the exchange rate, foreign firms targeting the Russian market have reduced their investments. At the same time, export-oriented firms have increased their presence in the form of fixed investment in Russia. Empirical confirmation of theoretical provisions allows using the obtained results when making decisions regarding investment policy and attracting FDI to the national economy.

17-27 695
Abstract

The subject of the paper is the activity of managers of Russian investment funds. The aim of the paper is to determine the possibility of using widely applied abroad methods of assessment of the managers’ diving abilities in the Russian practice, adaptation to the conditions of the Russian market of the three — factor Fama-French model. The methods of analysis and synthesis, quantitative assessment, including in relation to the study of the assessment of the portfolio managers picking abilities, are used as the main research methods. The relevance of the research is to make proposals on the transformation of the Russian approach to assess the performance of collective investment fund managers and its subsequent practical use. The article presents the results of a statistical assessment of the effectiveness of the activities of Russian managers of open-end investment funds shares from the perspective of micro-forecasting. According to the results of the research, conclusions are drawn that both the multifactorial Fama-French regression and CAPM, traditionally used in foreign practice, tested on the data of the Russian stock market, have sufficient predictive abilities and allow to obtain statistically significant estimations of variables and finally can be recommended for practical use in Russia. The novelty of the research consists in the development of the author’s modification of the three-factor Fama-French regression (a model with the SPX-factor), which allows to obtain better regression factors estimations in comparison with the basic model, more accurately explains the process of excess returns generation of Russian openend investment funds and can be recommended for practical use. The result of the statistical analysis is the conclusion that the processes of portfolio management of Russian investment funds in 2009–2019 were characterized by a lack of managers’ skill for successful picking, the profitability received by the funds was more ensured by random factors.

28-37 1171
Abstract

The article is devoted to topical issues related to the impact of investment in research and development (R&D) on the acceleration of economic growth on the example of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. All three countries need to modernize and diversify their economies, especially in the context of unstable conditions in the world fuel and raw materials markets and the trend towards decarbonization of the world economy. The relationship between economic growth and R&D expenditures was studied through econometric analysis (Granger test), which increases the accuracy and reliability of the results. The relationship between R&D and economic growth is examined using the annual GDP data of the respective countries and the ratio of R&D expenditures to GDP for the period 2005–2018. The data were analysed using EViews statistical package. It was found that GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan is the reason for cost increases on research and development. At the same time, a causal relationship was not found in Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan. According to the results of the correlation analysis, there is a very high positive correlation (0.92) between the growth data given in Azerbaijan and R&D expenditures. However, in Kyrgyzstan (–0.69) and Kazakhstan (–0.33), on the contrary, there is a moderate relationship in the negative direction. It is concluded that one of the ways to increase economic growth in the long term is to investment in R&D. The results of the research can be used by official institutions to assess the economic profiles of the countries under consideration and in the real sector of the economy.

38-49 481
Abstract

The purpose of the research is to develop, based on the concept of a balanced system of indicators, a methodology for assessing investment processes in the constituent regions of the Russian Federation, which makes it possible to track the relationship between the dynamics of the investment attractiveness of each region and the balance of investment policy. The relevance of development a practice-oriented methodology, on the basis of which it is possible to determine the effectiveness of decisions when choosing investment directions, is conditioned by the limited investment resources in the current conditions of the impact of politics on the economy. The scientific novelty consists in the original balanced system of indicators and the balanced evaluation methodology proposed by the authors as a tool for managing. The main research methods are systematic and balanced approaches, the methodology of the balanced system of indicators, the method of multidimensional average (for determining integral indicators) and correlation analysis (to analyse the relationship between investment attractiveness calculated on the basis of the developed system of indicators, and investment activity) are used as private methods. The main result of the research: the creation on the basis of the developed balanced system of indicators of an economic model for assessing the balance of investment policies as a mechanism for coordination the interests of private investors, public administration and the population. On the basis of approbation of the developed economic model (on the example of one of the regions of the Arctic zone — the Republic of Komi), the authors concluded: the imbalance of investment processes, revealed on the basis of the multidirectional dynamics and differentiation of the values of indicators by components of the proposed assessment system, limits the implementation of the investment potential of the Republic of Komi and reinforces the structural imbalances. The proposed model of assessment allows diagnose the investment problems in the regions of the Russian Federation, finding investment growth reserves, identifying investment priorities and improving the sustainability of investment management.

50-63 1046
Abstract

The authors of the paper estimated infrastructure’ impact to economic growth, which affects the regional balanced development. The relevance of the research is substantiated by the growing dynamics of investment of public funds in infrastructure development of regions. The purpose of the research is to determine the impact of infrastructure investments on economic growth and balanced regional development. The objectives of the research are: assessment of the impact of investment in infrastructure, assessment of GRP, price index in the regions, assessment of the ratio of population by regions of Russia with average per capita incomes, wages, investment in infrastructure, renewal of fixed assets and assessment of parameters for the balanced development of regions. The authors used statistical research methods (panel data, regression analysis) to identify cause-effect relationships in the process of growth and balance of the regional economy. The scientific novelty of this paper is the identification of disproportions in development of regions in comparison with the contribution of infrastructure to the regional economy. The results suggest that the volatility of infrastructure investment across regions remains high, with the contribution of infrastructure to economic growth and balanced development (p-values from 0.6363 to 0.9552). The authors concluded that the importance of infrastructure investments is one of the most important factors in achieving socio-economic development of the region. Infrastructure investment needs to be supported to reduce regional imbalances.

RISK MANAGEMENT

64-75 748
Abstract

In the realities of the modern domestic economy, the process of risk management of commercial banks associated to credit corporate customers, acquires new content. The assessment of what place in the company’s activity has a work that contributes to solving the most pressing problems of our time: environment, social and general corporate governance comes to the fore. As a result, the focus is on a group of lending risks known as ESG. Since the areas of work of clients — legal entities, with which these risks are associated, and described mainly by qualitative, non-formalized characteristics, a difficult task for modern bank risk-management becomes normalizing the process of their evaluation when making specific decisions on the loan. This explains the interest and relevance of this research, the object of which is the risk management subsystem for lending to corporate clients by commercial banks, the subject is the consideration of ESG factors in this process. The purpose of the paper is to develop the basics of decision-making tools in the management of bank credit risks, with this group of factors. The authors apply methods of both general scientific (induction, deduction, analysis, synthesis) and special: system and retrospective analysis of existing developments in the field of justification of decisions of bank risk management. The theoretical significance of the research results consists in a complex analysis of the role and place of ESG-risks in the overall risk landscape and the integration of environmental, social and managerial factors into credit risk assessment. Basic principles of construction of phenomenological model, used to support credit decisions by banks of corporate clients taking into account ESG-factors that influence their activity, have been developed.

FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY

76-86 494
Abstract

The overall degree of financial development of the State depends on innovative development of the financial sector. In this regard, it is important to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the characteristics, scopes and limits of the application of digital financial innovations both at the State level and at the global level, which determines the relevance of the research topic. The aim of the research is to develop an approach to assessment of the characteristics, scopes and limits of digital innovations in the financial sector and its approbation of the approach by the example of Russia. At the theoretical level, the method of literature analysis, abstraction and aggregation are used in the research. At the empirical level, methods of statistical, structural and coefficient analysis are applied. The results of the research in terms of the development of the theory of innovation in the financial sector are development of an approach to assessment of the characteristics and scope of digital innovation in the financial sector, to allow a comprehensive assessment of the development of financial innovation at the State level and comparison of the assessment results by country or with the world average values of the indicators proposed for assessment. The paper also proposes classifications of scopes and limits for the use of digital financial technologies, which allow for a qualitative analysis of the integrated development of financial innovations. Empirical research has allowed us to make conclusions about the accelerated development of the Russian financial technology market compared to the world average values based on the developed theoretical approach. At the same time, the problems of further development of financial innovations have been identified, namely, the low level of trust of the Russian population in small businesses in the field of financial technologies, limiting the inflow of foreign investment and narrowing the external market for the dissemination of Russian financial innovations in conditions of political instability. The following measures are proposed to solve these problems: improving the quality of education and improving the working conditions of specialists in the field of innovations, developing programs for concessional lending to small businesses in the field of financial technologies, and improving the financial literacy of the population as a consumer of innovative financial services.

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

87-98 500
Abstract

Fluctuations in returns from investment in stocks make these risky. This factor should be kept in mind in stock investment decisions, which determines the relevance of this research. Through the study, the volatility in the stock returns of BRICS nations is analysed for inferring on the riskiness associated with investing in the respective nations, which is the aim of the research. For this study, the daily returns of five indexes representing each of the nation namely Ibovespa (Brazil), Moex (Russia), Nifty 50 (India), Hang Seng Index (HSI, China), and FTSE/JSE All Share Index (JALSH, South Africa) for a period of 14 years are collected and analysed. Both unconditional and conditional volatility in returns is analysed for each of the nations for imparting clearer and more comprehensive picture of the volatility in returns. Such an in-depth and long period analysis of volatility of the returns of the emerging BRICS economies is a novelty of the research that determined that no volatility model can be said as perfect for all economies for all time. The GARCH (1, 1) model was used to study for the returns of all the five indexes. The results of the study point out that the daily returns of all these indexes are heteroscedastic, implying presence of varying variance. Accordingly, the study м that the BRICS nations’ index returns are more volatile and riskier, and authors are recommended to invest in those indexes with lesser conditional volatility.

BANK SECTOR

99-107 353
Abstract

The current research aims is to test the impact of loan portfolio returns on stock returns in the Jordanian commercial banking sector in the presence of solvency as a conditional variable (moderator). Set in the research represents all Jordan’s local commercial banks listed on the Amman Stock Exchange for the period of 2013–2020. The SPSS program was used to achieve the study’s objective and test its hypotheses. The results showed significant impact of loan portfolio return on stock returns in the Jordanian banking sector. It means that loan portfolio return growth has an impact on shareholder stock returns as it depends on the bank’s financial performance. Solvency is a conditional variable to improve the impact of loan portfolio return on stock returns. Accordingly, the research presents a set of recommendations, Bank managers should focus on loan portfolio management and financial solvency in order to have greater profitability and follow the decisions which are passed by the Basel Committee.

108-118 406
Abstract

Depending on the chosen business model, banks can act as both shock absorbers and crisis catalysts. In this regard, the analysis of the relationship between banks’ business models and financial cycles becomes a useful tool for diagnosing and predicting crisis phenomena. The purpose of the research is to identify the relationship between the volume of debt of the banking and the debt burden of the economy. The research uses econometric methods. The key result of the research is two new econometric models, which were calibrated for the Russian economy. The models differ from each other by the types of bank liabilities used in the calculation of independent variables. The models also differ from the existing models by the calculation algorithm of independent variables. The source of information is the official statistics of the Bank of Russia for the period 2008–2019. The tests of the models confirmed the presence of a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the debt burden of the banking sector and the debt burden of the economy. Coupling coefficients in the models are identified as debt multipliers of the banking sector and characterize the multiplier effect of changes in the debt burden of banks. For the model containing banks’ balance sheet liabilities, the debt multiplier for the Russian economy was 6.7; and for the model using banks’ total liabilities was 3.1. The developed models are easy-to-use for forecasting financial cycles.

TAXES AND FEES

119-130 491
Abstract

The relevance of the research is defined by the promotion of food security improvement for Russia and the importance of government regulation in this process. The purpose of the paper is the hypothesis verification on the positive impact of the revealed methods in the government tax regulation on the national agricultural industry development in conditions of import substitution policy with further increase of food security level in the country. The task of the paper is the analysis of government regulation methods for the development of agricultural sector. Key methods of the research are the collection and analysis of statistical data, their comparative analysis, the study of normative data base in tax regulation of agricultural sector and other documents related to the food security of the country. Authors analyze the dependence of national agricultural industry on import components. Based on that the main problems of food security in the country are revealed including the low seed fund, the lack of breeding stock, the lack of veterinarian vaccines and other medicine, weak investments in fixed capital and productive capacity, the lack of research institutes and laboratories in this sector of economy. In accordance with these reasons, authors consider the tools of government regulation in the agricultural sector of economy including the tax stimulation, grants and subsidies, preferential loans and other mechanisms, which could support the effective development of national agricultural complex. The analysis of statistical data by Federal Tax Service of Russia has indicated the effectiveness of government tax stimulation of agricultural producers, which is proved by the growth of tax revenue from this category of taxpayers, despite their decrease. Researchers indicate the development of government tax regulation measures by targeted use of tax tools for the target of a decrease in the loss of tax revenue and increase investments in fixed capital in the agricultural sector.

131-139 330
Abstract

The subject of the paper is to study of the theoretical literature on evaluate the effectiveness of the value added tax (VAT) mechanism, and identification of criteria for the analysis of the VAT mechanism. The purpose of the paper is to investigate methods for evaluating the effectiveness of VAT mechanism and, on that basis, to evaluate the VAT gap in Uzbekistan and the factors influencing it. The importance of the paper is confirmed by the significant contribution of the tax to the sufficiency and stability of budget revenue in countries with consumption tax mechanisms. A mathematical approach based on the C-efficiency (Collection efficiency) ratio is used to calculate the VAT gap. This model evaluates the discrepancy between actual VAT income and the maximum amount of tax revenue that could be obtained by taxing all (and only) final consumer spending in the economy. The novelty of the paper is justified by adaptation of model to the specification of VAT structure of Uzbekistan and recent data to estimate VAT gap. The research concluded that Uzbekistan’s VAT mechanism is twice as inefficient as its ideal mechanism. Estimates for 2016 and 2020 indicate that on average a quarter of potential VAT revenue is not collected due to Compliance Gap, while Policy Gap is responsible for over a third of the ideal loss of VAT revenue. In order to improve compliance, it is recommended to optimize the collection and control systems in addition to policy modifications that include reforms of tax objects, subjects, rates, incentives, and other tax elements.

MONETARY & CREDIT POLICY

140-151 443
Abstract

The relevance of the paper is defined by significant impact of financial shocks on various sectors of the Russian economy, which undermines the stability of the country’s economic system. Therefore, it is essential to study the sources of financial shocks, the mechanisms of their distribution and ways to manage them. The purpose of the paper is to specify the impact of financial stress on industrial stress in the Russian economy and to determine the role of monetary policy in their interaction. The novelty of the research consists in the development of a methodology for constructing financial and industrial stress indices, the establishment of the mechanism of their interaction under different monetary regimes of the central bank. The construction of stress indices is carried out on the basis of the selected indicators of the financial market and industrial sector of the economy, the use of the principal component analysis for their aggregation, and mathematical transformation of the first principal component. The direction of interaction between financial and industrial stress in the Russian economy is determined using the Granger causality test. The construction of autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL models) allows estimating the impact of financial stress, as well as monetary policy parameters (the scale of lending by the central bank to commercial banks and the deviation of the central bank’s key rate from the market rate borrowing) on industrial stress in the Russian economy. The research results in estimates of the strength of the relationship between financial and industrial stress in the Russian economy in two periods: before the change in the monetary regime (2006 — end of 2014) and after the change in the monetary regime (end of 2014–2019). It is concluded that in the first period the impact of financial stress on industrial stress was faster and stronger. In the second period, the weakening and distancing of this influence in time is explained by the change of the monetary regime of the Bank of Russia, which indicates an increase in the effectiveness of the monetary policy instruments of the Bank of Russia to counter “financial contagion” of the industrial sector.

FINANCIAL CONTROL

152-161 385
Abstract

Fraudulent behavior of participants in the budgetary process depending on situational and individual factors is studied in this research. The situational factors included obedience pressure and opportunity. The individual factor included Machiavellianism. This study was a laboratory experiment with blended methods. The subjects were accounting employees in the public and private sectors of Indonesia. The results indicate that the authorities’ pressure significantly influenced their subordinates in decision-making. This opportunity is a root cause of fraud. This research also confirmed that individuals with high Machiavellianism have more fraudulent behaviors than those with low Machiavellianism. The sensitivity test found that the proportion of female participants did not affect the primary outcome. Similar to gender analysis, there was no difference in fraudulent behaviors between the accounting employees in the Indonesian public sector and those in the private sector. The Government understand the factors causing the employees’ fraudulent behaviors in budgeting. State institution will strive to maintain public trust and resources efficiently and effectively.

FINANCIAL REPORTING

162-171 296
Abstract

In the context of the globalization of the world economy, the task of ensuring the transparency of information about the company’s financial position remains relevant. The purpose of the paper is to recommend the transformation the economic entity principle in the doctrine of “piercing the corporate veil” formed in international legal practice, the essence of which is to identify the ultimate beneficial owners of a business. To achieve this purpose, the following tasks are performed: to identify the scope of the “corporate veil” concept in international practice, to establish the relationship of the described issues with the conceptual framework of international financial reporting, and also to propose ways to overcome the insufficiency of the principle of economic entity to ensure the transparency of financial reporting in the current economic conditions. The object of the research is represented by a set of economic and legal interpretations of the “economic entity” and “corporate veil” concepts in their historical development. The subject of the research is the impact of the “piercing the corporate veil” doctrine on the composition and structure of consolidated financial statements. The authors conducted a comparative analysis of legislative acts in different countries of the world aimed at increasing the transparency of financial reporting and the availability of information about beneficial owners of the business. The empirical basis of the research involves materials of court cases and journalistic investigations related to the veiling of the company’s ownership structure, as well as the published reports of international, multinational public companies. The authors have identified the stages and described the logic of transformation of the principle of economic entity in the global accounting practice. The authors have developed recommendations for the application of the principle of additional liability to ensure transparency and reliability of information about the financial position of the company in the current economic conditions. The results of the paper can be used in the preparation of corporate legislation and the development of international and national financial reporting standards.

ЗЕЛЕНОЕ ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЕ

172-182 713
Abstract

The subject of the paper is the “green” projects of companies whose production activities are accompanied by a high level of anthropogenic emissions. The purpose of the paper is to study the features of analysis and practical application of the tools for financing “green” projects (hereinafter referred to as the tools). The relevance of the article is determined by the need to solve the problems of implementing in practice the provisions of Russian legislation on the development of “green” economy in the context of the need to develop and finance “green” projects by members of the National ESG Alliance. The scientific novelty of the paper is to develop the theory of development and practical use of tools, taking into account the peculiarities of their analysis and application. The paper uses theoretical and practical methods to the analysis of scientific publications and simulation results. The research is based on the provisions of normative and legal acts, monographs and scientific works devoted to the analysis, development and financing of “green” projects. Based on the research carried out in the article, the following results were obtained: an analysis was made of the specifics of the requirements for financing “green” projects; clarified the features of the classification of climate risks and formulated an approach to their transformation into corporate credit risks; the composition of the instruments is determined and their interpretation as controlled aggregates is proposed; the operator model of the units was developed, proposals for its practical use were made. The authors recommend that companies with a commodity product range use the operator model and cognitive maps developed on its basis to analyze existing and develop new tools. In the future, “green” companies are encouraged to use the tools obtained on the basis of the operator model and cognitive maps.

FINANCIAL LAW

183-191 455
Abstract

Cost indicators have been instrumental in highlighting the damage, in the qualification of crimes (large or especially large) and imposing punishment, as well as in conflict resolution between economic entities. The aim of the research is to identify the problems and conduct forensic examinations to determine the cost indicators and to formulate recommendations for improving this process. The research used such methods as content analysis of sources, normative and legal regulation, economic and mathematical methods, and analysis. Existing differences in individual concepts and types of values require uniformity in the justice system regarding their use. The authors recommend to adopt a list of issues and clarifications (explanations) to the issues in the determination of values on the basis of which the court will determine the amount of damage. The practice of forensic expert activity (at the legislative level, approved by norm) before the appointment of a forensic examination (in terms of determining the list of issues submitted for expert examination) was suggested, another proposal include implementation seminars with the participation of an expert (expert candidate) and detail of the cost indicators. Alternatively, this type of value can be represented as the term “market value with the restriction of free circulation”. It was concluded that there is a need to develop unification and develop uniform principles for determining the cost of financial indicators in legal proceedings to determine the amount of losses.

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

192-202 436
Abstract

For measuring financial performances of companies and identifying financial failure, there are a lot of models in the literature. Among these models, Z Score model is of the most used in terms of its being an accounting-based model and simple applicability. The purpose of this paper is found out whether the Z” Score model, which was revised by Altman, could be useful in making financial decisions about long-term firm value. For this purpose, panel cointegration analyzes were carried out among the variables, with the firm values of the publicly traded companies listed on the Turkish BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange) as the independent variable and the Z” Score values as the dependent variable. Although the research is specific to Turkey, the results of the research are considered to be applicable globally, as Altman states that the Z” Score model can also be used by developing country companies. It has been proven that Altman Z” Score Model, applied in public company, has a high prediction power directed to financial success of the firms. According to the results of the analysis, 1 unit increase in the Z” Score values of the companies cause an increase of 0.353 units in the logarithmic return calculated over the firm value. Z” Score Model can be a precious indicator for heads of companies, accounting and financial managers, auditors, creditors, investors to make accurate decisions directed to assessing financial structures of companies in advance.



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ISSN 2587-5671 (Print)
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)