STATE FINANCES
In the article, the authors analyze the social results of the implementation of Federal Law No. 189 dated 07.13.2020 “On the State (Municipal) social order for the provision of state (municipal) services in the social sphere” in the pilot regions of the Russian Federation. One of the main social results is the satisfaction of citizens with the social services received within the framework of the pilot project. In this regard, the aim of the study was to assess the level of satisfaction of recipients for each tested social service in each pilot region. The index values of the satisfaction level are calculated based on the assessments of the recipients of these social services and are supported by the opinions expressed by citizens in focus group interviews. The article describes the specifics of the implementation of a social order depending on the region and the service being sold, the relationship between the level of satisfaction of service recipients and the quality of their provision, as well as the dependence of satisfaction on the justification of consumer expectations. According to the results of the conducted sociological research, the social order operating in the pilot regions showed a high social result — the satisfaction of service recipients is at a high level. The study revealed the advantages and bottlenecks of using social certificates in pilot regions. Based on the discussion of the research results with representatives of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and representatives of regional authorities, regional peculiarities and problems were identified and ways to solve them were proposed.
ACTUAL TOPIC
Anti-Russian sanctions have an additional impact on Russian companies. Due to the rapid change in the situation and the development of information situations, it is becoming difficult for investors to make investment decisions. This determines the relevance of the study, the purpose of which is to determine the impact of information about sanctions on stock indices of lower industries. The empirical basis for the study of indicators includes 67 thousand news items from the Interfax platform for 2014–2023. The following were used as control measures: the price of Brent oil futures, the dollar-ruble exchange rate, and the RUONIA benchmark interest rate. The indices of MOEKEU (electric power industry), MOEKS (chemistry and oil chemistry), MOEKOG (oil and gas) are considered. All data were obtained for the period from 01.01.2014 to 31.12.2023. The research methodology is based on mathematical modeling using the BERTopic topic modeling algorithm. Four main topics of sanctions were identified: “Anti-sanctions policy and sanctions evasion”, “Western sanctions”, “Sanctions against industry-specific companies”, “Financial market”. The impact on industry indices was assessed using the random forest algorithm and GARCH analysis. It has been proven that sanctions have less impact on the indices of those industries that are sufficiently autonomous in Russia. Investors pay attention to entrepreneurial topic, and not to the sanctions rhetoric. Negative information can lead to their irrational behavior. The period of maximum impact of sanctions was also determined: a month from the date of release of information about the introduction of sanctions. As a result, the following conclusions were made: 1) when referring to industry indices, not all news about sanctions is taken into account, as are messages on the topic of manufacturers, taking into account industry specifics; 2) for the index of the chemical and petrochemical sector of the greatest initiative, which has an anti-sanction policy index; 3) the energy plumbing sector is less developed. The results of the study can be useful for determining investment directions
MONETARY & CREDIT POLICY
The purpose of the study is to propose a new model for determining insurance premiums on deposits. As of today, there are two models: the first is theoretical, using market value (option theory), and the second is practical, using book value and, as a rule, a fixed rate. Market value cannot be applied as it does not reflect banking risk, while the use of book value is considered mandatory without any theoretical justification.This paper proposes a new model, namely the Asnawi Model with three advantages, namely: (1) based on book value, (2) considering the bank’s risk-return (fair premium); and (3) considering incentive-compatible plans. The model formation is based on the main variables that influence banking performance, namely (1) asset-to-deposit ratio (2) lending-borrowing rate ratio, (3) and non-performing loans.The results of this research are: first, the formation of four Asnawi Groups which indicate the amount of premium that must be paid by the bank (group 4 is the one with the lowest premium); second, the Asnawi Score, as a reference value for banks to get/not get incentives; third, the results of simulations on Indonesian banking showed variations in premium groups, and in the fourth, regression of the three variables above on ROE, the results were found to be in line with predictions. This model for determining insurance premiums can be a reference/alternative for determining premiums in worldwide banks.
The subject of the study is the banking sector credit activity in Russia and the factors that determine it. The relevance is due to the fact that the changed external political and macroeconomic conditions, the growing role of the banking sector in economic development challenge researchers to determine ways to stimulate bank lending activity. The purpose of the study is to identify measures to stimulate bank lending activity. Scientific novelty includes the identification of the factors influencing the lending activity of banks. The research methodology is based on statistical modeling using a linear model on panel data. The statistical database includes indicators for 26 main banking groups, the study period is 6 years (from 2015 to 2020). We proposed a hypothesis that the banking sector lending activity depends on macroeconomic and industry factors, as well as that there is a difference in this influence in the short and long term. As a result of the empirical study, this hypothesis was not rejected. Conclusions. Based on modeling, we suggested some legislative and regulatory measures to stimulate the lending activity of banks.
STOCK MARKETS
Integrating participants in the agricultural value chain, including farmers, traders, aggregators, processors, etc., into commodity derivative markets can become a win-win option for all stakeholders in the commodity ecosystem. Participants may gain an advantage related to price setting and risk management; on the other hand, exchanges may benefit from increased liquidity. In this same context, the article presents a conceptual scheme for attracting value chain agents in agriculture to Indian commodity exchanges. Within the framework of this concept, special attention is given to raising the awareness of producers, processors, and consumers of agricultural products about the benefits of commodity derivative markets. The issue of incentivizing hedgers and participants, who should have real exposure to commodities, is also being considered to increase their participation in the operations of Indian exchanges. Moreover, it is recommended to encourage indirect participation through option traders, investment banks, or other specialized agencies. In the long term, other strategies can also be considered, including state participation in commodity derivatives markets and allowing fractional contracts on commodity derivatives to increase liquidity in Indian commodity derivatives markets.
This study aims to scan the efficiency of NSE gold ETFs in the context of the pandemic. The trading strategies such as the contrarian and the momentum tactics employed by the market participants towards gold ETFs in different time horizons were observed in detail. This study also attempt to check whether gold based funds is considered as a safe haven by the Indian investors in crisis settings. Daily return trend of gold ETFs and the broad market index for past four years were duly examined. The risk adjusted abnormal return method was employed for different time horizons as this technique observed to be more reliable for the topic and seems to be quite novel to the existing body of literature. The market participants were efficient in accommodating the pandemic news in their trading strategies. The analysis confirmed trading momentum attributed to gold ETFs despite the COVID‑19 waves. This research points that fund managers should give more weightage for gold based ETFs in their portfolio along with common stock as the portfolios diversified with gold ETFs were able to marginalize its loss impacted by the COVID waves. From economic point of view gold ETFs enabled to divert more funds from domestic households to the corporate sector even during the crisis period.
The object of the study is the Russian stock market. The subject of the study is the management of risks that may hinder the solution of the current task of ensuring the necessary contribution of the stock market to the transformation and development of the national economy under conditions of sanctions pressure. The relevance of the study is due to the high importance of the development of the national stock market for solving problems of long-term funding of the national economy in modern conditions, which requires systematic and proactive risk management. The purpose of the study is to work out a methodological approach to risk management for the development of the national stock market in the context of economic transformation. During the study, mainly methods of analysis and synthesis, classification, induction and deduction were used. Based on the results of the study, the authorized government bodies were recommended to implement a unified methodological approach to risk management for all involved parties for the development of the national stock market, taking into account the different goals of different participants. The scientific novelty of the proposed approach lies in its combination of two levels of risk management (market level and risk owner level) and taking into account the cross-functional and cross-sectoral mutual influence of risks. Conclusions are drawn about the potential effectiveness of the developed approach, as well as the possibility of scaling it to the level of the financial market as a whole, provided that organizational issues related to the development of a detailed methodology, its implementation, maintenance and independent assessment of its functioning are resolved, as well as the principle of proportionality of benefits from the implementation of the system to the costs of its organization.
FINANCIAL RISKS
Banks are unique establishments that are exposed to both returns and risks across various dimensions. Among the risks they face, credit risk stands out as one of the most critical, stemming from banking transactions with customers and institutions. Risk is an inherent aspect of the banking business, particularly due to factors such as increased competitiveness, technological advancements, larger banking transactions, and the presence of large banks. Today, banks encounter a range of banking risks, varying in their levels of severity across different institutions. To ensure their continued existence in the banking market with reasonable returns and minimal risks, banks must conduct thorough evaluations and analyses while effectively managing all potential risks. These measures contribute to their success. This study specifically examines the influence of credit risk on the financial stability of Jordanian commercial banks during the period of 2010–2020. The study incorporates key drivers of financial stability, including the capital adequacy index, liquidity ratio, return on assets, and costs, which were derived from previous research. The study’s findings indicate that the leverage ratio (expressed as a percentage) of credit risks had no impact on the financial stability of Jordanian commercial banks between 2010 and 2020. However, there was an impact observed in relation to credit risks represented by the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans (expressed as a percentage), affecting the financial stability of these banks. Based on the final results and discussions of the study, it is recommended to prioritize transparency, as it plays a crucial role in achieving financial stability even in the face of financial, political, and epidemic crises. Additionally, adherence to institutional governance principles in financial markets and establishing a link between economic indicators and banking safety are essential. Overall, this study underscores the significance of effectively managing credit risks and implementing measures to ensure financial stability in the banking sector.
FINANCIAL CONTROL
Supreme Audit Agency (BPK) and Government Internal Supervisory Apparatus (APIP), as government audit institutions, have an essential role in realizing the accountability of state financial management. Both are expected to establish good coordination because it can benefit both the audit institution and the government organization being audited. This study examines the effect of institutional pressure, namely coercive pressure, normative pressure and mimetic pressure, on the level of BPK auditor reliability. In addition, this study also aims to examine the impact of BPK auditor reliability on audit quality. The research was conducted at government audit institutions considering that reliability is a form of coordination in conducting government financial report audits. The survey method was carried out to collect data from 264 audit team leaders tasked with examining the government’s 2020 financial reports. SEM PLS analysis was used with the help of the WarpPLS Version 8 software. Unlike previous studies, this study found that mimetic pressure does not affect the level of auditor reliability. BPK is the only external government audit institution so no other audit institutions can be used as a benchmark in auditing government financial reports. The study also concluded that BPK auditors’ reliance on APIP could improve audit quality. This research provides input for the government regarding strategies to improve coordination and cooperation between BPK as the government’s external auditor and APIP as the government’s internal auditor.
DIGITALIZATION OF FINANCE
The field of cryptocurrencies is in existence and dynamically evolving for over 14 years. Each year introduces new cryptocurrencies, with their total number exceeding 8,500. However, to date, there is no exhaustive categorization of cryptocurrencies that could possibly fully describe the landscape of the cryptocurrency market, which underscores the relevance of this research. The objective of this study is to construct a hierarchical categorization (taxonomy) of cryptocurrencies based on their main characteristics and functions. The principal research method is a retrospective analysis of the development of the cryptocurrency field from the creation of Bitcoin to the present day. As the industry evolved, new projects emerged, which significantly differed in their properties from what existed before, thus forming entirely new categories and niches in the cryptocurrency space. Moreover, the emergence of certain types of cryptocurrencies could lead to changes in the existing classification. The outcome of this research is a taxonomy of interchangeable cryptocurrencies/tokens. The proposed taxonomy is accompanied by a detailed examination of the cryptocurrencies associated with each category, as well as a consideration of the largest cryptocurrencies in terms of capitalization through its prism. The scientific novelty of this research lies in the absence of similar studies that look at the issue of categorizing cryptocurrencies through a historical lens.
The object of the study is the inclusion of banking services for making payments in the context of consumers using the Internet, mobile subscriber devices. The subject of the study is the factors and approaches to assessing digital financial inclusion for consumers of payment services provided by the banking sector. The relevance of the study is due to the need to increase financial inclusion in the context of ensuring financial stability, economic growth, prosperity and equal opportunities for all members of society, which is determined by domestic strategic priorities, as well as a global sustainable agenda, in the context of the development of digital technologies. The purpose of the study is to identify factors associated with increasing the inclusion of financial services for Russian consumers in the context of the development of digital technologies, using the example of payment services provided by the banking sector. Methods of generalization, grouping, statistical and comparative analyzes were used in the study. As a result, factors associated with the digital inclusion of payment services provided by the banking sector to consumers were identified, including the share of the population that are active Internet users in the total population; the number of divisions of operating credit institutions per 1 million adults, and population density. It is concluded that the development of digital literacy of consumers will contribute to the increase in digital financial inclusion, for which it is advisable for the state, the regulator and the financial market participant to form a need among consumers and provide the opportunity to develop digital skills to receive and ensure security when receiving financial services. Further research can be focused on individual components of digital financial inclusion, various groups of counterparties, certain financial services, certain types of financial institutions, including operators of financial and investment platforms, as well as on the effects and risks of the micro and macro levels.
Over the past decade, digitalization, which has become a key driver of innovation in the financial industry, has led to the development of new products and financial services. The services and opportunities provided in the field of decentralized finance have similar characteristics to traditional financial services. The lack of sufficient experience in the functioning of the decentralized finance sphere determines the relevance of the study of the content and problems of the development of this format of financial organization. The object of study is the relations arising in the process of providing financial services in traditional and decentralized finance. The subject of the study is the impact of decentralized finance on the activities of traditional financial intermediaries. The purpose of the study is to determine the aspects of the impact of decentralized finance on the activities of traditional financial intermediaries. The objectives are to study the theory of trust in relation to decentralized finance, identify problems of their development, assess the challenges and prospects for the impact of decentralized finance on the activities of traditional financial intermediaries. The authors use general scientific and special methods, including system, comparative analysis, generalization, scientific abstraction. The scientific novelty of the study lies in a comprehensive assessment of the impact of decentralized finance on the activities of traditional financial intermediaries through the prism of the capabilities of the decentralized finance system at the current stage of financial market development. The authors conducted a study of the theory of trust in relation to decentralized finance, and also proposed forms of ensuring trust in financial services provided in the traditional (TradFi) and decentralized financial systems (DeFi). To assess the challenges and prospects of decentralized finance and their impact on the activities of traditional financial intermediaries, a PEST analysis was conducted, identifying groups of political, economic, technological and socio-cultural factors of influence. It is concluded that the influence of the decentralized finance sphere on the activities of traditional financial intermediaries will expand due to the increase in the market capitalization of DeFi and the spread of systemic risks characteristic of TradFi. Focus on minimizing risks should facilitate the use of DeFi services by traditional financial intermediaries in the context of creating and developing innovative projects. The conducted research can be useful both for users of traditional and decentralized finance services and for regulatory and supervisory authorities.
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
The article dwells on financial aspects of the municipal solid waste management. The aim of the article is to consider common factors of solid waste financing in developed and developing countries, to determine the structure of total costs of municipal solid waste services, to consider complications that appear in relation to capital costs and operation and management costs, to compare costs of municipal solid waste technologies, to find out how do cities obtain investment funding for solid waste management projects, how local governments obtain operational and maintenance funding, as well as to make comparison of waste management user fees by income level and by region. The following important costs consideration has been made. Capital costs and operation costs are normally financed differently. Capital costs are rather not difficult to benchmark. Quite often some important operation costs are not duly calculated or even overlooked. It is difficult to determine total cost of a service, especially in low-income countries. It is challenging task for a city in a developing country to get investment funds for municipal solid waste management projects for several reasons: municipal financing is highly limited in the context of growing volumes of waste; struggling cities can’t just apply for loans because they are not considered creditworthy by international stock markets; accessibility of donor financing for municipal solid waste management is extremely low if to compare to other sectors; donor financing is often restricted to emerging economies; economic downturns limit private funding available for solid waste management.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
The crisis of the global monetary and financial system based on the US dollar has been the focus of attention of the international academic community for a long time. At the same time, modern research does not sufficiently present a comprehensive approach to studying the causes and consequences of the dysfunctionality of the current international monetary standard. The purpose of the paper is to systematize the cause-and-effect relationships of the crisis potential of the global monetary and financial system based on the US dollar as the key reserve currency. Methods of scientific abstraction, system analysis and logical generalization were used. Factors characterizing the crisis potential of the global monetary and financial system are identified: reproduction of global imbalances, chronic capital outflow from countries of the global periphery, growth of global debt and inflation, rupture of global chains and neoprotectionism, destabilization of markets for fuel, raw materials and food products. According to the author, the conservatism of the current international currency standard is due to the lack of real alternatives to the US dollar as international liquidity due to the US control of key institutions and mechanisms of the global financial market. The restrained attitude of the United States towards the need to introduce advanced digital technologies in the sphere of monetary circulation and reluctance to participate in the transformation of the global monetary and financial system reduces the chances of its qualitative reform. It is concluded that the main impulses for the de-dollarization of the global monetary and financial system should be the coordinated demands of the IMF member countries to restore the system of multilateral settlements using a wide range of national currencies; large-scale diversification of their investment portfolios by including emerging market assets; coordinated actions of the BRICS+ countries to create innovative mechanisms for international payments based on modern digital technologies.
MATHEMATICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS
During periods of economic crises, investment activity decreases. The growth of yields on the securities market, typical for such periods, is unprofitable for issuers. Fluctuations in interest rates and general instability in the economy favor mainly short-term investments of investors. Issuers construct bond parameters that help attract investors and reduce risks. The purpose of this work is to consider the behavior of some controlled parameters of the bond during periods of instability, to obtain mathematical evidence of the dependence of the duration and price of the bond on the frequency of coupon payments and to justify the possibility of considering the frequency of coupon payments as a parameter that reduces the risks of the investor and the issuer. Methods of differential calculus are used to obtain evidence. The novelty of the work consists in the fact that the proofs obtained in the work are not available in the literature. The results are obtained for bonds that do not have credit risk. It has been established that with an increase in the number of coupon payments per year at fixed values of the main parameters, the duration of the bond decreases, and the price increases. The proven statements about the behavior of the duration and the price of the bond are consistent with market observations. A decrease in the duration of the bond with an increase in the number of coupon payments per year means a decrease in the “real term” and a decrease in the interest rate risk of the bond, which may be of interest to the investor. The price increase indicates an increase in demand for bonds with an increase in the number of coupon payments per year and the possibility of increasing the issuer’s income. The relevance of the work lies in the fact that the conditions for economic instability in Russia and in the world remain and the results of the work may be of interest to participants in the bond market. Conclusions: the paper shows that an increase in the number of coupon payments per year contributes to an increase in the attractiveness of bond issuance for both investors and issuers. Conclusions: the paper shows that an increase in the number of coupon payments per year contributes to the growth of the attractiveness of a bond issue for both investors and issuers. Practical significance of the work: the results of the work can be useful for investors and issuers, financial engineering specialists in the design of bond parameters, as well as in theoretical studies of the investment properties of bonds.
BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS
The purpose of this paper is to answer, what determines financial behavior of Pakistani Households? Considering the interpretivism as epistemological considerations, subjectivism as ontological considerations, and induction as research approach, this study employs the qualitative research methods. 38 semi structured interviews are conducted. The results suggest that financial planning of households in Pakistan is determined by demographic and macroeconomic factors. Intentions, society and culture influence household spending, and the special purpose and availability of savings determine their savings behavior. The literature is inconclusive regarding the determinants of household financial behavior, primarily because of differences in culture. This emphasizes the importance of separately studying household financial behavior in settings of Pakistan. The originality lies in exploring the factors in determining Pakistani households’ financial behavior.
The study’s purpose is to determine empirical evidence on the effect of financial attitude, knowledge, and perceived risk on intention to invest, reinvestment, level of trust in the platform, and investment satisfaction. The data were collected via an Online Google form from May to July 2022, through a survey of 401 respondents from cities in Indonesia, and were analyzed by structural equation modeling with partial least squares. The results showed that financial attitude has a significant positive effect on the intention to invest and knowledge, while it is insignificant on perceived risk. The intention to invest has a high impact on decision-making. Reinvestment is significantly influenced by intention, decision-making, and trust. The effect of trust has a high impact on reinvestment, which has a significant positive influence on financial satisfaction. This study has made a new contribution to the planning field of financial behavior, regarding investment decisions in terms of monetary assets for unit analysis. However, in further study for businesses or SMEs with unique characteristics, some adjustments are needed in the aspects of testing and model improvement to increase applicability.
ЗЕЛЕНОЕ ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЕ
The sustainable development goals formulated by the UN are embodied in various spheres of human life and economic activity. In finance, this movement has led to the emergence of a sustainable finance market in recent years. Its boundaries are set by the uniqueness of the tools and products of this market and the formation of its own rules and standards. The purpose of this study is to develop approaches to assess the development of the sustainable finance market and integrate indicators characterizing the state of individual segments of this market into the system of financial development indicators promoted by the World Bank. To achieve this goal, the paper analyzes the structure and scope of the sustainable finance market, examines the experience of monitoring the state and dynamics of this market in different aspects, and clarifies the place of existing and proposed indicators in the system of financial development metrics. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the modern practice of monitoring and analyzing the sustainable finance market is not fully adapted to the purposes of both country-based and cross-country analysis, since it is not systematized and relies mainly on absolute indicators. The authors propose the development of a methodology for analyzing the sustainable finance market by complementing existing approaches and preferentially using structure indicators and GDP-weighted indicators. Taking into account these proposals, the work presents a modernized system of financial development indicators of 5×4 dimensions, which is intended to replace the 5×2 matrix used so far in the literature on financial development. This will make it possible to more systematically accumulate information on the functioning of the sustainable finance market and use it, among other things, to find answers to the questions regarding the contribution of this market to financial development and the effects of its development on inclusive economic growth.
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)