STATE FINANCES
The subject of the study is the debt policy of the Russian Federation in 2001–2023, the replenishment and withdrawal of the National Wealth Fund (NWF), the mechanism of the “fiscal rule”.
The purpose of the study is to discover the real effects of implementation of the fiscal mechanism known as “fiscal rule” as well as evaluation of the real efficiency and potential of the application of the mechanism of NWF as a countercyclical regulation tool.
The research used the method of system analysis of the federal budget data, budget balances in the framework of debt policy. The study also used the methodology for calculating excessive borrowings developed by the author for the first time. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact, which is discovered for the first time, that the increase of the state debt significantly exceeded the real requirement for state borrowings in order to cover the federal budget deficit. Special attention was paid to the budget surplus and the quantitative analysis of the state debt growth in the framework of surplus budgets. The research of a deficit-surplus budget phenomenon, initially described by O. Dmitrieva, is continued in the paper. The cost estimation of the excessive borrowings through the period of 2001–2023 is made. It has been established that the replenishment of the NWF according to the different versions of the “fiscal rule” is the main factor of the excessive
borrowings and, consequently, the increasing debt service costs. The share of debt service costs in the federal budget expenses increased from 1.8 % in 2009 to 5.33 % in 2023. It has been shown that the systemic vices in the section “sources of the budget deficit coverage” creates the opportunity for artificial increase in debt beyond the level of the real requirement for state borrowings, contributing to the state debt growth. In the conclusion of the research it is articulated that the NWF does not work and cannot work as a countercyclical regulation tool and an attempt to use it in this capacity leads to an increase in state debt and debt service costs. The practical significance of the research lies in the debt police improvement proposals and recommendations for budget classification and have the remarkable practical significance for all countries which have been creating national sovereign funds.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
The article analyzes the functional features of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, the factors weakening its position in the global monetary and financial system (GMFS), as well as the directions and trends in the development of the monetary functions of the Russian ruble in international circulation in modern conditions.
The purpose of the study is to develop conceptual approaches to the analysis of the functions of money in international circulation in new conditions.
The objectives of the study are to analyze the factors and consequences of the changed qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the use of the US dollar as the “anchor” of the GMFS, as well as to assess the perspectives of the development of monetary functions and the exchange rate mechanism of the Russian ruble. The research methodology includes scientific and methodological approaches to the implementation of monetary functions and the exchange rate mechanism of national currencies, analysis of statistical and analytical information of the Bank of Russia, international financial organizations, official reports of government bodies, scientific monographs and publications of Russian and foreign economists, and periodicals. The authors conclude that it is advisable for Russian organizations to use rationally trading currency backed primarily by gold and other strategic goods in settlements with interested partners in foreign economic activity.
International financial organizations and development institutions agree that the implementation of blockchain technologies (DLT) in the process of cross-border payments will significantly contribute to the development of the global international payment system. In this regard, works devoted to the prospects for the creation of specialized blockchain platforms and international transactions implemented on their basis in the framework of the use of digital currencies are of great interest today. This issue is of particular relevance today for the Russian economy, which is faced with unprecedented sanctions pressure, limiting, in particular, the access of the financial system to international clearing services.
The purpose of this study is to develop and test methodological approaches to the empirical assessment of the potential GDP growth in Russia in the event of simulating the transition of cross-border payments to a blockchain ecosystem.
The research consists of methods for systematizing macroeconomic externalities that are formed in the financial system of the national economy in the process of using blockchain in the system of international settlements, as well as correlation and regression analysis, which provides the opportunity to identify the impact of blockchain transactions on the prospects of economic dynamics. The results of the study consist in the identified potential for a possible increase in Russia’s GDP (+ 4.0 % per year) as part of the use of blockchain in the system for securing international payments. The assessments not only indicate the prospects of using blockchain in the implementation of transnational payments, but also determine the potential for their use in localizing the risks of increasing sanctions pressure, expressed, in particular, in restricting access to international clearing services, payment systems (SWIFT, etc.).
MONETARY & CREDIT POLICY
The purpose of this paper is to conduct statistical tests to verify the impact of unexpected monetary policy shocks on the U.S. mutual funds returns over the period from December 2007 to February 2022.
The authors have identified the “monetary surprises” of monetary policy shocks for the period under consideration using a high-frequency identification procedure and analyzed the Fed’s monetary policy at the current stage. The model, in which excess fund return is a dependent variable, has been designed basing on the panel data on the characteristics of 457 actively managed funds with S&P 500 as a benchmark downloaded from the Bloomberg terminal. The main hypothesis about the significance of “monetary surprises” for actively managed funds performance has been confirmed for the periods 2007–2009 and 2020, when the U.S. economy was in a recession. The robustness has been tested on the models with several specifications. The authors have concluded that not only absolute but also relative returns depend on unexpected changes in monetary policy, while an accurate analysis of their direction allows fund managers to increase the alpha of their portfolio significantly. In view of the above, assessing the quality of managing the financial portfolio in order to select a mutual fund to invest in requires considering the fund manager’s track record over the entire economic cycle.
Financial availability for small and medium-sized enterprises is the most important factor for the companies’ growth. The current structure of the financial market determines bank lending as the main source of attracting external financing. At the same time, SMEs are in need of alternative financing instruments, including equity financing.
The purpose of the paper is to assess current changes in the attracted financing structure in the SME segment and determine the development prospects of a system of capital raising instruments.
Due the purpose, two tasks were defined: to analyze the dynamics of financial availability and the need of target segment in modern convenient financial tools. The following scientific methods were used in the study: observation, comparison, retrospective and system-structural analysis, analysis by segments, generalization. The key advantages of individual financial instruments and factors influencing their development are identified. The risks of creating non-competitive conditions for the development of instruments due to different approaches to regulation, as well as the use of preferential lending programs, have been identified. To prove the proposed approach, an analysis of the depth of lending penetration in the micro, small and medium-sized business segments, as well as the dynamics of the involvement of new borrowers, was carried out. The promising role of equity financing is outlined, while the institutional consequences of involving citizens in the development process of Russian companies are highlighted. The risks of the lack of a long-term vision of the financing instruments structure in strategic documents are identified, which does not allow the formation of numerical guidelines for supporting various groups of instruments. The proposed study made it possible to identify a number of significant areas for the development of non-bank financing of SMEs. The work updates: the possibilities of forming a system of debt and equity financing that meets the future needs of the target audience. The author’s definition of the prospects for the development of a system of financing instruments for the SME segment is given, which is based on an analysis of the dynamics of individual financial instruments and a study of the long-term need for external financing at various stages of company development.
FINANCIAL RISKS
The rights of Russian investors owning foreign financial assets were violated as a result of the introduction of foreign sanctions, which blocked these securities for an indefinite period. This problem is widely discussed both in the professional environment and at the state level, and a search is underway for ways to solve the current situation.
The purpose of this paper is to propose specific tools for working with blocked financial assets — assessing their value, profitability of formed portfolios, taking into account risk.
The authors have developed a model for assessing blocked foreign securities, taking into account sanctions risk, while this risk is considered a type of credit risk. As a result of implementing the model, the fair value of blocked assets is determined, which can be used to determine the value of portfolios containing blocked securities; when creating special insurance and credit products aimed at protecting the rights and income of investors, as well as when the regulator develops recommendations for assessing blocked assets for further work with them.
In order to create a methodology for assessing the company’s main financial indicators, taking into account both business and financial risks, the CAPM and Fama-French models were included in the two main theories of capital structure - the Brusov-Filatova-Orekhova (BFO) theory and the Modigliani-Miller (MM) theory. CAPM takes into account systematic (business) risk, while capital structure theories take into account the financial risk of a specific company, associated with debt financing. As a result, generalized approaches (CAPM-BFO and CAPM–MM) were developed that take into account both types of risk: systematic (business) and financial. The Fama-French model with three and five factors is also considered and included. The latest versions of the two main theories of capital structure (BFO and MM), adapted to the established financial practice of the functioning of companies, are used, taking into account the real conditions of their work, such as variable income, frequent income tax payments, advance income tax payments, etc. Practical calculations have been made. They focus on (1) applying two versions of CAPM (market or industry) to real companies; (2) application to real companies of a new methodology developed by us for assessing the financial performance of a company, taking into account both business (market or industry) and financial risks. The calculations made for three real companies (Apple, Severstal, Polymetal) show that the financial performance of companies is highly dependent on the type of risks taken into account. Sometimes the difference between market and industry cases is small, sometimes it is significant. But the difference in financial indicators, while taking into account simultaneously financial and business risks, is always great. This means that taking into account simultaneously both financial and business risks is important for a correct assessment of the financial performance of companies. The developed approach makes it possible to use the powerful tools of these highly developed theories (BFO and MM) for the correct assessment of the main financial indicators of the company and their forecasting, taking into account both types of risks.
TAX POlICY
The relevance of the study is determined by the need to ensure the budgetary sustainability of the country’s regions and the importance of state regulation in this process.
The purpose of the paper is to test the hypothesis about the positive impact of the applied instruments of state tax regulation on the level of ensuring budgetary sustainability in the region under consideration.
The objective of this study is to analyze the instruments of government regulation in order to ensure fiscal sustainability in a particular region in the context of transformation of the global economy.
The main methods used in this study include the collection and processing of statistical data, their comparative analysis, the study of the regulatory framework for tax regulation and other documents related to ensuring the budgetary sustainability of territorial units.
The scientific novelty of the conducted research lies in the formation of an approach to the selection of optimal government regulation instruments to ensure the balance of regional budgets.
As a result of the study, tax incentive measures were identified as the most effective among other government support measures aimed at achieving the sustainability of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The proposed approach allows us to identify tax preferences that, given their temporary nature, will help expand the tax base in the future due to the growth of organizations’ revenues and an increase in the number of taxpayers. It is concluded that it is necessary to use government support instruments that will help unlock the regional tax potential of the Republic of Karelia.
The paper’s significance in practice is its development of a set of specific recommendations for a deliberate transformation of the relevant regional tax laws in the Russian Federation.
FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY
Over the last 10 years, financial development has been technologically advanced, and trends in this area are linked to the fintech phenomenon.
The purpose of this paper is to develop theoretical provisions regarding trends and patterns of penetration of fintech into the financial system and the methodological basis for assessing the development potential of fintech at the country level in the context of financial development and economic growth.
To achieve this goal, the paper analyzes data on fintech across 150 countries, presented by the Statista global data platform. Using theoretical methods of systematization and generalization, as well as empirical statistical methods, the geography of the spread of fintech was analyzed, identifying the factors of country leadership, and the areas of penetration of fintech were considered. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the modern methodology for monitoring and analyzing the development of fintech does not meet the requirements for analyzing the impact of this segment on financial development. In this regard, the article presents a system of indicators for assessing the development of fintech at the country level, and also explains the reasons why measuring the fintech market and dynamically assessing its development is still difficult in practice. Taking into account the identified shortcomings of the existing system of the fintech development indicators, additional indicators for measuring the development of the fintech sector at the national level are proposed, corresponding to the standard for assessing financial development. A study of Russian experience based on available data showed a high level of innovation in the payment sector and insurance. At the same time, the need to expand the implementation of domestic fintech solutions in the areas of asset management, Regtech and blockchain technologies was identified.
ECONOMICS OF SOCIAL SPHERE
The subject of the study is the models of social security of the population.
The relevance of the research is derived from the fact that states are increasingly faced with global problems requiring more government funding and restricting how much social risk is covered by state social security mechanisms and models.
The purpose of the study is to form a financial and investment model of social security that promotes sustainable economic growth.
The task is to systematize the aspects of the formation of an optimal financial and investment model of social security. The authors use the methodology of the analysis of the functioning environment (DEA) and the methods of neo-institutionalism, which is the most promising and complete concept for studying structural changes and investment strategies. The main results of the study show that inflation can have a negative impact on the social protection system. An optimal model of social security is proposed to stimulate economic growth. It is concluded that regardless of the division of the social security system into the state and non-state sectors, the proposed model of social security will achieve a synergistic effect and can have a positive impact on the quality and life expectancy of the population, which will favorably affect the indicators of economic activity and economic growth.
MATHEMATICAl METHODs IN ECONOMICs
In recent years, the theory of stable variables has seen many exciting developments, due to the fact that it is a very rich class of probability laws able to represent different asymmetries, and heavy tails, so modelling complex phenomena; unlike normal law, which very often underestimates extreme events. α-stable distributions are a class of heavy-tailed distributions. For that, we will start in this paper by presenting a review of graphical tests, which will help us to verify if we are in the presence of data with infinite variance or not, and more precisely of stable distribution. Then we will apply these tests to real data representing car claim amounts, allowing us to assume that our sample follows a stable distribution. In order to confirm this hypothesis, we will therefore estimate the four parameters of the distribution using the McCuloch method, as well as the Koutrouvelis method in order to be able to make the diagnosis with Kernel Densities, and finally we will demonstrate that α-stable distribution is better fitted to the car claim amount data by using the Kolmogorov test.
STOCK MARKETS
The objective is to investigate the effect of news on stock behaviour in terms of price and volume traded. Further, it is intended to explore the strategies adopted by the investors for various type of news items.
Methods included collection of 18,014 news items from BSE website and classify as financial and non-financial news. Using paired t-test, the news further classified as good, bad, or indifferent. The effect of news on stock price and volume are found and the scrip return, risk and volatility are also computed pre- and post- announcement. Findings reveal that news has always affected the scrip volume traded on BSE, Mumbai. Non-financial news whether good, bad, or indifferent, has resulted in holding of the shares. It is Concluded that Financial bad news has resulted in holding of the shares except for earnings announcements.
Novelty is effect of news on stock market based on news classified as good, bad, and indifferent or financial and non-financial.
The effect of various types of news in stock market is also found along with the combined effect. The implications are helpful to the corporates, fund managers and individuals to time the information dissemination followed by strategizing trade.
The IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a widely used financing tool worldwide, but the scientific community has not extensively analyzed the dynamics of the IPO market.
The purpose of the paper is to identify the absence of clustering in certain industries during “hot” IPO markets from January 1990 to December 2022, as well as to identify IPO waves in the Chinese market.
The research methodology included analytical methods for collecting and processing information, comparative and graphical analysis of an author-collected database covering over 16,000 IPO transactions with a placement size of over 50 million USD. The study includes a comparison of IPO transactions in China and the rest of the world, as well as an industry and
geographical analysis, with explanations for differences in dynamics. The paper also illustrates IPO waves on the analyzed horizon and explains why they formed. Companies globally raised over 5 trillion dollars through IPO transactions during the analyzed period, with developed countries raising the majority of funds. However, the dynamics of the IPO market show a
significant increase in China’s and developing countries’ share in the last decade. During this period, five IPO waves occurred, characterized by significant growth in placement volumes and first-day trading returns. It has been concluded that clustering in the IPO market was not specific to certain sectors, but coincided with the global increase in the number of transactions and IPO returns, while clustering in the Chinese IPO market coincided with the dynamics of the global IPO market.
CORPORATE FINANCE
The purpose of the study is to change the current methodology for identifying the fundamental aspects of an organization’s financial recovery by analyzing the elements that are needed for the theory of financial recovery to change under current conditions.
The subject of the study is the financial and economic mechanisms for the settlement of overdue debts of insolvent organizations in out-of-court and judicial (under bankruptcy procedures) regimes within the framework of financial relations with creditors.
The relevance of the work is due to theoretical and practical problems.
The strengthening of the factors of the business crisis against the background of a high debt burden and low economic growth significantly increases the risks of mass bankruptcies of organizations, which requires the improvement of financial recovery tools. However, the existing paradigm of the theory of financial recovery is focused on preventing threats to the property interests of the owners of the debtor organization — this reduces the rehabilitation potential of such a theory. Analysis of the implementation of bankruptcy procedures in Russia shows the inefficiency of rehabilitation and liquidation procedures, which in most cases end in the liquidation of the organization and the separate sale of its assets in parts. Using logical research methods (analysis, synthesis, induction), economic analysis of judicial statistics on bankruptcy in Russia and the USA, methods of economic comparison and the provisions of the systematic approach, the theory of corporate reorganization of L. Bebchuk, the contract theory of the firm O. Hart and the theory of crisis management of socio-economic systems, the original results of the study were obtained. The article proposes to change the object composition of the processes of financial recovery: to shift the emphasis from protecting the property interests of the debtor organization to preserving its business from destruction. The change in the object composition provides, among other things, a solution to the key strategic problem of the institution of bankruptcy — finding a balance between rehabilitation and liquidation procedures, preventing the preservation of inefficient and liquidation of effective debtors.
The orientation of financial recovery tools to preserve businesses from destruction allows us to develop provisions on the risk of bankruptcy of organizations and increase the rehabilitation potential of bankruptcy liquidation procedures, which determines the novelty of the study.
Equity buyback decisions are critical commitments, depending on the cash position of a firm.
The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of cash flow volatility on the buyback decisions of Indian corporate firms.
The sample comprised 132 Indian companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange from 2012–2019. The selected firms had non-significant abnormal returns (after buyback announcements) that aroused the inquisitiveness to explore the real motivation behind repurchases across firms with permanent and volatile cash flows. The results of ordinary least squares regression suggested that large cash holdings were unrelated to the buybacks with coefficient values –0.02 and 0.01 for firms with permanent and volatile operating cash flows, respectively. Firms with considerable cash flows exhibited a low tendency to buy back their shares. The repurchases served mostly as signaling tools meant to enhance the value of stocks that were potentially undervalued. Thus, the undervaluation of stocks (with a beta of –0.38) seemed to have significantly affected the repurchase decision in association with the constant or volatile cash flows of the firms. Further, small firms appeared to engage more frequently in buybacks given their lower market-to-book ratios.
The topic of board gender diversity has drawn the attention of academics, organizations, and regulators alike. Such heightened awareness of the subject has produced a favorable atmosphere for gradual growth in women’s participation in boardrooms worldwide. Countries have even taken the initiative to legalize boardroom quotas to increase the proportion of females in the boardroom of organizations. The current study investigated the effect of women’s boardroom representation on the financial well-being of banks. The study considered fourteen commercial banks in Ethiopia as a sample. The study period ran from 2013 to 2020. The study employed OLS and fixed effect regression for analysis and found out that the representation of women in the boardroom of banks pays off. The result is robust for alternative measures of financial performance. The outcome of the study has far-reaching implications for policymakers and managers of financial institutions. Ethiopia’s financial regulators should push for legislated boardroom quotas to enhance the representation of women in the boards of banks. Additionally, banks should make the appointment of additional female board members a priority. The study also contributes new insights to the body of knowledge already available on the subject.
BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS
In adopting digital financial inclusion using digital apps in the Iraqi banking sector, users’ behavioral intentions and acceptance of digital apps are critical considerations to mitigate financial inclusion barriers. This study examines and discusses the role of smartphone banking technology as a new trend for extending financial inclusion by testing the impact of clients’ behavioral intentions (as a modified variable) on the part of smartphone banking apps in mitigating the digital financial inclusion barriers in the Republic of Iraq. The study used two models: the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model to determine essential constructs of technology use and a second model, a multidimensional index of financial inclusion (focusing on the dimension of the barriers).
The main objective is to enhance understanding of how smartphone apps mitigate barriers to digital financial inclusion.
The researchers collected survey data from 338 participants of Iraqi bank clients in the Baghdad governorate. After excluding 10 invalid responses, 328 (92%) were tested and analyzed using sPss software. Results of the two hypotheses emphasize that the respondents believe four critical constructs of the UTAUT model (PE, EE, SI, and FC) are key to digital financial inclusion and mitigate its barriers. Besides that, the positive of bank clients’ Baghdad governorate behavioral intentions to use digital apps play a vital role in improving the effectiveness of smartphone banking apps to mitigate digital financial inclusion barriers. Therefore, the study recommends that Iraqi banks with smartphone banking apps must develop and improve those apps to extend and diversify their operations on mobile platforms to enable more comprehensive categories of Iraqi society and motivate them to use the bank apps to purchase products and implement transactions.
FINANCIAl lITERACY
The paper examines the impact of financial literacy, risk tolerance and expectations on the choice of financial instruments by private investors using data from the 5th wave of the All-Russian household survey on consumer finance, conducted in 2022 at the request of the Bank of Russia. This is the first time such an analysis using Russian data has been carried out.
The purpose of this study is to determine the role of financial literacy in making individual investment decisions.
The results of logit- and tobit-regression estimation show that the investments of Russian citizens in stocks, bonds and mutual funds are mainly limited by a high degree of financial risk aversion, and not by an insufficient level of financial literacy. Expectations do not affect the choice of financial instruments. The refusal of individuals with low tolerance for possible losses to invest in securities market instruments and the preference for bank deposits is a reasonable and rational decision in case of the absence of deep financial competencies. At the same time, this creates unfavorable conditions for the implementation of the long-term savings program developed by the Ministry of Finance of Russia and attracting long-term investment resources by Russian companies in the real sector of the economy in the context of closed access to global financial markets. The active acquisition of cryptocurrencies by respondents with high self-esteem of their own financial competencies, but low incomes and low financial literacy ratings, calculated on the basis of answers to test tasks, generates increased risks of not achieving financial goals. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to the risks of transactions with cryptocurrencies as a part of the implementation of initiatives promoted by the Moscow State University and the Bank of Russia to improve the level of financial literacy and financial culture of Russian citizens. It is proposed to include questions that allow assessing advanced financial competencies and forming the values of variables that can act as instruments for the level of financial literacy in subsequent waves of the survey to develop the information base for further research.
ISSN 2587-7089 (Online)